TheCable

Bukola Saraki, former governor of Kwara state who played a major role in the formation of the All Progressives Congress (APC), is in “good stead” to lead the senate if his party forms the majority in the upper chamber after the 2015 elections.

Because of the role he played in leading a break-away group from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) into the APC, Saraki, TheCable understands, has secured an understanding with major leaders in the party to be supported for senate presidency in the event that the opposition wins power.

Saraki, a serving senator, had given up his presidential ambition this year, saying he wanted to avoid a possible rancour after the party’s primary with too many aspirants in the race.

But TheCable was informed that his permutations actually changed when Muhammadu Buhari declared his interest in the race and all seemed set for the former head of state to pick the party’s ticket.

Another source said it was Bola Tinubu, the national leader of APC, who persuaded Saraki to target senate presidency instead of going into a contest against Buhari, the favoured candidate.

TheCable’s report on October 13

But perhaps the biggest factor counting in Saraki’s favour is that of the four big platforms that formed APC, the New PDP group ─ which he belonged ─ has not got any major position in the new arrangement.

Buhari came from the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), which is like a splinter group from the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), while Yemi Osinbajo is from Tinubu’s Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).

The national working committee of the APC is also dominated by ACN, leaving the New PDP with marginal positions.

Others from the New PDP group, such as Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, governor of Kano, and Rotimi Amaechi, governor of Rivers, lost out in the presidential arrangement.

While Kwankwaso was defeated in the presidential race, Amaechi who had been targeting vice-presidency lost out to Osinbajo, a professor of law, who was nominated by Tinubu.

APC unofficially zoned the presidency to the north and the vice-presidency to the south, but with the south-west picking the vice-presidential slot, the north-central (where Saraki comes from), the south-south and the south-east will now have to fight for the No 3. and No. 4 positions: senate presidency and speakership.

The party has not officially taken any position on this, but with Amaechi not running for senate, the south-south may not be favoured for senate presidency.

APC is not considered strong in the south-south and the south-east, but it is growing in influence in the north-central states of Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa and Benue ─ a factor that may determine which zone picks the No. 3 position.

However, since 2007, senate presidency has been in the north-central, with David Mark (PDP) occupying the position and he is on course to returning to the senate for an unbroken fifth term.

Saraki was the governor of Kwara state between 2003 and 2011, and sought the presidential ticket of the PDP in 2011 but lost out to Atiku Abubakar in the “northern consensus” arrangement.

Saraki’s ally, Abubakar Baraje, was the chairman of the break-away New PDP, which later merged with APC.