TheCable

Today, with the rising insurgency of Boko Haram and the gaping insecurity of lives and property amidst the orgy of ethnic clashes, kidnapping, armed robbery, piracy, ritual killings, assassinations and other heinous crimes, it is dawning on us that the CIA prediction that Nigeria might not exist beyond 2015 is actually anchored on in-depth insight. Even if Boko Haram phenomenon could be ignored, in a patently ethnicised social space like Nigeria, the insurgency associated with it is a potential cataclysm that has found a conducive milieu in which to thrive. It thrives not just in its violent assault on the social space but on the fact that its own agenda enriches and is enriched by the hitherto latent discontent in the polity. It is an apparent encouragement of the disintegration of the Nigerian state.

The crux here is for our politicians to appreciate that there has to be a Nigeria in existence before any political aspirations for 2015 can evolve as a reality. It is not impossible for elections to be conducted in 2015. However, with the seeming irreconcilable positions of the contending forces, what is the likely consequence of the elections irrespective of the result?

While the North is insisting on power at any and all cost, growing interests in the South-South, whose ambition for President Jonathan’s second term appears to be greater than that of Mr President himself, is also insisting on second term for Jonathan or war. One wonders whether the higher wisdom of rationality and altruism will prevail against deep seated sentiments and volatile emotions that currently pervade the nation’s polity.

Objective political analysts point to the fact that the spoken and unspoken power sharing arrangement devised by Nigeria’s political role players requires that the North and the South take turns in controlling the coveted seat of power at the centre. To this effect, they say it could be argued that the North has kept to the bargain having supported eight years of the Obasanjo presidency and also conceding a total of six years of Jonathan following the demise of late President Yar’Adua.
Yet, for the same objective analysts, you cannot ignore the argument of the South- South which holds that it will be a most difficult, if not impossible task to reinvent a presidential mandate from that geopolitical zone if they don’t take full advantage of the moment. For this school of thought, if President Jonathan is denied a second term in office then the South-South would have been badly and irreversibly short-changed.

In their opinion, the ultimate objective for which the zoning principle was adopted is indeed fulfilled in the emergence of Goodluck Jonathan as a first minority President of Nigeria. And as for the provisions of the constitution as it bears on how many years anyone can serve as president, they assert that the provision is that you can only be elected twice for the office of president and to that effect President Jonathan has only been elected once. They therefore see no constitutional obstacles on his path way to 2015. And if you think that there might be bullets waiting for Jonathan if he forges ahead to claim a 2015 mandate, there are shells and mortars waiting for him should he attempt to beat a retreat from his own kinsmen.

For the South East Zone, it has been an excruciating struggle emerging from the ruins of Biafra only to be confined to a political and economic wilderness from where the Igbos have since been grappling with various efforts to re-establish their status as a Bona fide Ruling House in the Nigerian Kingdom. The deliberate but ill-advised post-civil war exclusion of the Igbo from the political equation of the Nigerian Project has resulted in their subconscious perception of Nigeria, not as a country, but essentially as an economy on which to bring to bear the fullness of their famed acumen and diligence in commerce in the wide and multifaceted trading ambit that is offered by Nigeria’s geographical and demographic endowments. And even in the face of incessant hostilities against them they have continued to adapt and become constructive contributors to the communities in which they settle or sojourn. To that effect, the Igbo constitute a vital and unifying tapestry running across the multi-seamed fabric of this expansive and diverse nation.

While the South West Zone continues to implement a deliberate policy of putting their house in order with a view to setting the zone firmly on the path of socio-economic progress irrespective of the trouble with the larger Nigerian Project, they are increasingly, perhaps perfunctorily, voicing the view that they are now being marginalised in Nigeria. For the South West Paradigm, it however remains to be seen how an ‘’oasis’’ can continue to thrive in the face of an unrestrained and ravaging desert encroachment. Whatever be the underling consideration, wisdom demands that the South West must be sufficiently interested, and actively participate in the efforts to ensure that the larger Nigeria not only survives but also thrives as a socio-political and economic entity if the zone’s aspiration for socio-economic sovereignty is to be realised.

The presidency in a proper democracy is not about ethnic representation but about the effective and efficient management of the resources of the country to engender the wellbeing of the citizenry. It is about identifying people with the relevant skill sets and moral credentials and assembling a team that would build a productive nation and free the people from the manacles of poverty.
To allow the workings of our socio-political space to be essentially defined within the compass of ethnic colouration denies the polity the full opportunity to locate, from wherever possible, persons with the requisite mind-set and capability to evolve a viable socio-political and economic order.

Whether we choose to pretend or honestly acknowledge the reality, it is apparent that the current situation in Nigeria is precarious and very fragile. It is not only being stressed along its ethnic seams, its very foundations are being threatened. Currently, certain parts of the country are largely considered by international observers as being in a partial state of war. If people can no longer feel safe in parts of Bornu, Adamawa and some other states in the north because of on-going skirmishes between the Nigerian army and local relics of Al Qaeda, then there is a war situation.
Watching recent developments in our polity, I am compelled to add my voice to the plethora of warnings and doomsday predictions about the terrible fate that awaits us as a country if we do not urgently reverse ourselves from what is clearly a perilous path.

With the heating up of the polity and the on-going game of subterfuge and chicanery, indicative of the ruthlessness and desperation by which our politicians pursue electoral victory, the din is getting louder by the day, but we continue our quick march to apocalypse unperturbed. Add to this, our collective immolation as a nation on account of the continued missing girls of Chibok! Over 150 days, and counting. Where is our outrage? Where is our suffering, apart from the lure of dirty politics and all kinds of unimaginable advantages?

The prognosis, at our Centenary, is not good, if we must tell ourselves the home truth. Indeed, we can go back a hundred years to the amalgamation, and it is probably a litany of one false/ missed step or the other. Why are we so “blessed”, you are forced to ask? Whereas, some regard the amalgamation itself as a “mistake”, the truth is that if it was, we have not made conscious efforts to correct it. A people can continue for as long as fate would allow them as a “mere geographical expression”, but to emerge as a nation state is another matter altogether.

As a first step, we must urgently revisit our union. What is the basis for our association? Do we as a people agree to live together? And if the answer is yes, then we must clearly define and agree the parameters. A journey, even if a hundred years, on the wrong path will not lead to any right destination. This should be self-evident.

But there is a bigger problem in my view. What is the foundation on which we are building? I think we now have to dispassionately and honestly review this. You cannot build anything concrete on falsehood. The Constitution which is the supreme law of a people has to be given and seen to be given by the people. The process leading to it would answer all of the questions that currently agitate us as a people. When we answer these questions in an atmosphere of give and take, we will then freely decide to subscribe or unsubscribe to the union. Unlike before, there will be no “no-go” areas. It is as simple — and as difficult — as that!

When we take this first necessary step, these other things which we crave will naturally fall in place. Good leaders, patriotic citizens, buoyant economy, rule of law and maximising human and material potentials do not result from nothing or worse, false foundations. They are, indeed, the hallmarks of deliberate and concrete foundations built by nations and fostered by strong institutions. When will Nigeria begin to build hers? When will we engender a National Group Mind? Perhaps, it is on this premise that the recently concluded National Conference can be seen as another missed opportunity to lay a proper foundation for Nigeria.

The mistake of Nigeria stems from the examples that tend to guide us in the present. The examples we prefer to copy are the mistakes and missteps of those who have come before us. This is why I would want to call on President Goodluck Jonathan as the man on whose table the buck stops, to step up to higher grounds for a better view of the horizon — so that he can see where the nation he leads is headed. This time calls for utmost sacrifice and delicate balancing. He must find the moral compass that would relocate him to that high moral ground of 2009 from where he was able to summon the moral will of the majority of Nigerians who insisted he be sworn in as President. That same moral will of the Nigerian people propelled him to victory in the 2011 elections. For the President, this calls for the right mix of courage and wisdom to chart a different path from the ones previous leaders have chosen.

As for the people of Nigeria, we must embrace moral obligation and self-discipline as basic credentials for good citizenship and more so for anyone aspiring for public office. As a people, we must identify with the Emmanuel Onyechere Osigwe Anyiam-Osigwe doctrine which holds that “material gains must not be made at the expense of personal values or spiritual propriety’’. As stated by the Apostle Saint John “Beloved, I wish above all things that thou mayest prosper and be in health, even as thy soul prospereth (3 John 1:2).

The problem with Nigeria, therefore, is not as much the problem of poverty arising from scarcity but poverty arising from the mismanagement of the political, social and economic spaces. As a people we have, indeed, dissipated tremendous national energy on otherwise unproductive ventures.

By design or default, we are today at a dangerous cross-road. To paraphrase from a title of a book by the American civil rights icon Martin Luther King, Where do we go from where we are- chaos or community?
At this time, the country desires a few good men and women who are patriotic enough to see and define issues from the perspective of “what is good for Nigeria”. It calls for leaders who have martyred themselves and define their meaningful existence within the boundaries of the success of the Nigerian state.

The secret perhaps lies in understanding and harnessing the centrifugal forces that propel and direct the undercurrents that yielded the kind of brinkmanship that saw an embattled Vice President Goodluck Jonathan transform into an Acting President and then to Mr. President. This moment in the history of our dear nation calls for dedicated men and women who, in the words of Elbert Hubbard, “can carry the message to Garcia” May God grant us the Grace, the Will and the Way.

*Anyiam-Osigwe, coordinator-general of the Osigwe Anyiam-Osigwe Foundation wrote from Lagos.