TheCable

When Muhammadu Buhari, former head of state and a retired general, was elected the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in December, the opposition party took a massive leap forward in its bid to wrest power from President Goodluck Jonathan.

Then everybody waited with baited breath on who Buhari’s running mate was going to be. A Muslim-Muslim ticket would have been hard to market but if the candidate was going to come from the south-west, the political heavyweights are mostly Muslims.

Yemi Osinbajo, a professor of law, pastor and former Lagos commissioner, came to the rescue. He got the nod, and the initial reaction was that he is a political lightweight. But a few days of media marketing soon roused public enthusiasm, and the Buhari-Osinbajo ticket suddenly became a bestseller.

Ever since, it has been an upward swing for APC, with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Jonathan playing catch-up. Jonathan could not have had it so scary. Social media was awash with reports that the Redeemed Christian Church of God, probably the second biggest Christian denomination in Nigeria, had endorsed the Buhari-Osinbajo. After all, Osinbajo is a pastor in the Redeemed Church.

Buhari, whose ambition had been very difficult to market to the south as well as to Christians, began to gain ground in the southern part of the country. The Christian clergy were getting more comfortable with him. Ejike Mbaka, a popular Catholic priest in the south-east, specifically campaigned for Buhari. Sunday Adelaja, a Ukraine-based Nigerian pastor reputed to have the largest church in Europe, has also endorsed Buhari on the account of his pastor friend, Osinbajo.

Jonathan fights back

If you expected Jonathan to fold his arms and then wave Aso Rock goodbye, you made the wrong assumption. He has been on the counteroffensive, flagging off his campaign in Lagos on January 8 in what could be described as an impressive outing in front of an impressive crowd — at least, to his supporters. He has also fought back at APC’s characterisations of him. On his own, he launched rare attacks at Buhari and APC, at some point saying his opponent, who is 72, does not even know his own phone number.

But by far the biggest step taken by the president is his meeting with his adversary and benefactor, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, at his home in Abeokuta, Ogun state, on Monday evening. Even more significant is the presence of Enoch Adeboye, the general overseer of the Redeemed Church, once listed among TIME magazine’s most influential persons in the world. Also present was David Oyedepo, who leads the Living Faith Ministry, another big church.

Contrary to the belief that the choice of Osinbajo would get the endorsement of Adeboye, the church had denied the tweet which was probably posted by an enthusiast. The official position is that the church does not play politics and will not endorse any candidate. But among the church hierarchy, the word is that the election is between Jonathan and Buhari, not between Jonathan and Osinbajo.

Obasanjo, meanwhile, has done enough damage to Jonathan to last him a lifetime. He has openly attacked the president viciously. His trilogy, “My Watch”, is still in the cooler following a court order. It contains some of the most damaging assessments of Jonathan any human being could offer. Clearly, Obasanjo is opposed to Jonathan and a second term bid.

However, the option for Obasanjo is Buhari — his archrival since 2003. Contrary to widely circulated messages on social media that the former president had endorsed Buhari “even if he is going to jail me”, he has not officially pitched his camp anywhere. He continues to say he would remain in PDP and would not defect, while PDP chieftains, including Adamu Mua’zu, the party chairman, are hopeful that Obasanjo would not work against the party.

Obasanjo, TheCable understands, has been pulling the strings behind the scene for Buhari, encouraging his loyalists to work for him. But he has not made a definite commitment. This can be interpreted in two ways. The first is that he does not want to be seen to be openly working against the PDP; after all, his professed problem is with Jonathan. The second interpretation is that being Obasanjo, he is holding out for a deal.

In 2011, according to Nasir el-Rufai, minister of FCT in Obasanjo’s government, the former president called a few of his loyalists together and asked them to work for Buhari against Jonathan. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was to be drafted in as Buhari’s running mate. Recounting the story in his book, “Accidental Public Servant”, el-Rufai said as soon as PDP gave the controversial Ogun west senatorial ticket to Obasanjo’s daughter, Iyabo, Obasanjo backed out of the deal.

In Jonathan’s camp, therefore, there is optimism that Obasanjo is still “available”. Their prayer is that at least if he won’t campaign for Jonathan, he should stop campaigning against him. Obasanjo’s primary grouse is believed to be because of the prominent role being played in the south-west PDP by his “enemies” — Buruji Kashamu, the mobilisation committee chairman, and Ayo Fasoye, governor of Ekiti state. Both of them, who used to be his associates, have been attacking him.

Monday’s meeting in Abeokuta was at the instance of Jonathan, who, TheCable learnt, enlisted the support of Adeboye and Oyedepo to help talk to Obasanjo to sheathe his sword. It is one of those meetings where nothing filters out. Journalists were not briefed. All queries were deflected. No statement will be issued. It was classified as “private meeting”.

Nevertheless, one fact is emerging: Jonathan has not been cast aside by the two prominent Christian leaders. They may not guarantee him re-election, but they are not going to do an Mbaka or Adelaja either. As for Obasanjo, the guessing game continues.