2015: Eurasia forecasts win for Jonathan
World’s largest political risk advisory, Eurasia Group, has released its forecast for next year’s presidential election in Nigeria, predicting that President Goodluck Jonathan would be re-elected.
It warned that a “desperate” Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), “facing the potential loss of its power (which dates back to 1999), would exacerbate profligacy, policy politicization, oil theft, and regional/sectarian tensions”.
Eurasia gave PDP a 75% chance of winning the election but said APC, with 25%, still had a chance “if it can mobilize behind a strong northern presidential candidate that has Buhari’s backing and a vice president who can deliver votes and high turnout in the southwest”.
That means PDP is three times more likely to win the election than APC.
The group said the defections that affected PDP have stopped and have even been reversed in some cases, noting that the biggest opposition party, All Progressives Congress (APC), was in “disarray”.
The report was obviously written before the Osun governorship election, which was won by APC, as it only made reference to the Ekiti poll which saw the opposition party lose in every local government.
The Africa Director of Eurasia, Philippe de Pontet, wrote that the six months leading to the presidential election “will be tense”, forecasting “constant politicking, attacks by Boko Haram… and policy stagnation” ─ and a possible outbreak of riot in northern Nigeria if Jonathan is re-elected.
Pontet wrote: “A Jonathan win could feed political unrest in the north, but makes it less likely that rebels in the Niger Delta re-ignite their attacks on oil infrastructure and personnel.”
Nigeria’s political risk was upgraded from “negative” to “neutral” in what he described as “a positive net for political stability”.
Pontet said it was unlikely there would be fiscal or monetary policy “upheaval” and that the campaigns may not completely upend the investment climate or reverse Nigeria’s economic momentum.
Eurasia Group has offices in New York, Washington, DC, London and Tokyo.
Good luck!
Our Country is in the bad mood.
Chei!
There is God oh!
Four more years?
There is God oh!!
When APC came out, d Ghana political scenario came into our mind for viable alternatives where necessary. However, APC is not different from PDP both in policies and principles. Only individuals do differ. Good luck looks better than APC prospects. More so Rivers will vote for Jonathan and Lagos will be divided.
This is not making need sense to me. This group’s forecast may work over there in the US or UK but not Nigeria, Nigerians need change and APC will bring that change to Nigerians.
Nigerians want change nothing is moving all sectors are bad.
With the current challenges bedeviling the Nation is very unfortunate and hope that this forecast is very untrue because there is high level instability in the system. It is to be noted that the GEJ administration has completely fail Nigerians and that is why this forecast is totally untrue and cannot be accepted by any reasonable Nigerians.
Mr Abdin. Don’t believe…this paid-for advert by a desperate gang. Who are Eurasia? Ever heard of them in Nigeria? It’s just a big joke, to deceive gullible and undecided Nigerians. It’s all our stolen money, at work.
use your goggle. If you may care that is the world’s largest and most trusted in such areas. Use your Google m****
Foreigners do not understand Nigerian politic,s let alone make predictions, there are to many factors at play, so predictions can be inacurate This is assuming Jonathan is contesting, Who knows maybe he might even be impeached before the election
Interesting forecast, 75% in today’s Nigeria based on what, polls opining of interviewed people or opinion poll on the internet? Any one that believes this will belief that fishes live on land. God’s willing, there not be riot in any part of this country if INEC and security people do their jobs honestly. If the result is fair, not 50% voters in the SW, NE, NW while SS and SE voters are 99%. Any poll today that gives any of the two parties more than 55/45 ratio is bunkum, that is the truth. Do your own opinion poll on cable today, let us have the outcome.
As long as there are no viable candidate from the opposition APC up till now, then the chances of APC at the polls come 2015 will be slim. APC and PDP are the same, let us not confuse ourselves. The devil you know is better than the Saint you can’t trust. President Goodluck Jonathan may be slow to act, but he seems to be moving in the right direction. The power supply has improved and the painful journey to nationhood has already begun. Before you utter another word, what are you doing in your own little way to make Nigeria great?
Sometimes I wonder when people mention viable opposition. Do we have any? If APC is that viable opposition people are referring to, then Nigeria is better off with PDP. Let us critically analyse it before we throw their forecast away; if APC presents Buhari they will loose bcos he is pro north; if they present Tinubu they’ll loose, he’s pro south west; Fashola has some good showing but he does not yet have pan Nigeria clout; Amaechi is relegated already to Rivers. Now someone should tell me how APC can win the presidency.