TheCable

A couple of weeks ago I got a call from one of my readers in Lagos. He wanted me to confirm rumours of a coup and reports of men from the Army’s Brigade of Guards manning strategic places in the federal capital territory.

I told him that, like all residents, I saw the unusual presence of soldiers in the city and a couple of checkpoints. But I told him I could not say for sure if that indicated a coup scare. As he persisted in his enquiries I advised him that either Major-General Edward Buba of Defence Information or Major-General Onyeama Nwachukwu at the Army headquarters information section would be of better help.

He did not seem satisfied with my answer and then launched into a tirade which left me both baffled and thoughtful. He said that any coup now will be resisted stoutly by southerners especially if the head of such a coup were to be a northerner. He said that will signal the end of Nigeria as the Biafra, Niger Delta and Oduduwa republics will be activated leaving only the “Arewa republic” as he put it, on their own. He ended up by saying I should carry the message to “your northern brothers” that President Tinubu must be allowed to serve eight years just as southerners tolerated Muhammadu Buhari’s incompetence and nepotism, northerners too must be patient with what is happening now under Tinubu no matter how painful. And he pointedly said that after Tinubu it will be the turn of the South-East for another eight years and thereupon the South-South will take its turn before political power will shift back to the North. A total of 24 years from now.

I did not want to argue with him because it was pointless holding such maximalist opinions on issues that are largely subject to undetermined variables of political interaction. I reckoned holding such agricultural opinions on Nigerian politics was not only misleading but also dangerous if such views do not pan out eventually.

On the other hand, his views compelled me to reflect on developments in Northern Nigeria in the context of present political realities and into the future. It occurred to me that at present the North seems to be caught in the vortex of momentous political, economic and social developments that will likely challenge fundamentally its pivotal position and role in national politics.

What are these developments and how are they likely to shape the future of politics in Nigeria?

With President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s ascendance to office on May 29, 2023, a quiet but significant political sea change occurred in Nigeria’s political history. It marked the full entry for the first time of the southwest political region into the mainstream of Nigerian politics. For most of Nigeria’s political history, the south-west had always been content to play the opposition role in Nigerian politics

With the coming of President Bola Tinubu and his political machine to the centre stage of Nigerian politics, indications are that the south-west region intends to stay there for good at least in the foreseeable years. And that can only be at the expense of the northern political establishment which had held the centre stage for so long. That is what will form the undercurrent of the 2027 political battle; President Tinubu’s need to deepen and consolidate his and the south-west’s roots in the mainstream of Nigerian politics against northern pushback at attempts to push the region out of its position of dominance in the political space.

I will hazard a guess that Tinubu’s game plan in this regard will be to systematically strip the North of its advantages thus weakening its competitive edge in national politics

From all indications, President Tinubu came prepared for this.

President Tinubu’s platform for the political battle with the northern political establishment is what I will call the Asiwaju Political Holdings, a personalised political holding structure that will speculate and hold available political stocks in the Nigerian political market. Already, this political holding structure has taken over the stocks of the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) and a substantial chunk of the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Both now function as departments of the Asiwaju Political Holdings.

The Asiwaju movement knows no political and economic boundaries and moves with the force and effect of a well-oiled conquering machine subsuming everything in its wake. It has taken control of Lagos, Abuja and Port Harcourt, the three most important political and economic cities in Nigeria; one for business, commerce and media, one for government and politics and the other for oil and gas. It has moved swiftly to assume control of the financial, banking, insurance, maritime, oil and gas, judiciary, legislative, military and political sectors of the country. In the coming months, this inevitable political force is poised to take over all sectors in its wake such that by 2027, it would have neutralised or emasculated all opposition or stumbling blocks to the re-election of President Tinubu.

It is the platform with which President Tinubu and his majorly south-west political mafia intend to completely take the Nigerian political space elbowing out the northern political mafia which it identifies as its main opponent in this zero-sum political game. The Asiwaju movement does not consider the Igbo-based south-east and south-south political groups as prime opponents. Those are to be subsumed and used in the political battle against the northern political establishment for the retention of political power in the south in the next 16 years.

The elements to be deployed in these battles are media power, government power and money power; all of which the Asiwaju political machine has full and copious control. Media power will be deployed to create and control the narrative of the northern political dominance of Nigeria all these years to the detriment of other regions in a skewed way. Government power will be used in a carrot-and-stick way to deny appointments, favours and patronage; and conversely to woo, reward and cajole those that are seen to be of strategic necessity in the political battle ahead.

Money power is of course the game changer. It is the instrument that penetrates and unlocks all probable resistance and with the debilitating poverty stalking the land and with the devaluation of the naira Asiwaju political has more than enough war chest of money to flood the political system and secure compliance with its requests and determine outcomes.

How will the North counter this and how effective will its efforts be in this regard?

(To be continued).

Gadu can be reached via [email protected] or 08035355706 (text only).