TheCable

By Baba Grumpy

A few months ago, I wrote this article –  https://www.thecable.ng/understanding-buhari-approach-exchange-rate   If you read that article or take the pain to read it now, you will realize that I am a supporter of President Buhari. 

In that article, I called a few things wrong. I said Buhari won’t increase the price of petrol and he wont allow the naira lose it’s value. I was wrong on both counts. It is my understanding that the Niger Delta Avengers effectively made both decisions happen with their oil facilities destruction.

I was distraught when I read about the petrol prices increase and was pleasantly surprised when the mass & spontaneous negative reaction I was afraid it would trigger didn’t happen. Conventional wisdom suggests that the people appreciate the challenges Buhari has to deal with, believe in his integrity and decided to give him wriggle room. I suspect the Social Society groups that could have fronted such a reaction also realize that Buhari enjoys significant goodwill amongst the populace.

There is another school of thought that believes that the populace has been pummeled into a place  where they no longer have the energy for a fight. They claimed that because of the arduous and unending fuel queues, the people were only too happy to buy petrol at whatever official price. They also went further to state that the prevailing economic circumstances were such that people didn’t have the energy and the desire to fight.

As usual without the benefit of proper scientific study, it is unlikely we will ever have a reasonable stab at the reasons why our people accepted the recent fuel price increase with equanimity. But I am somewhat glad that the backlash didn’t happen. It is hard enough trying to rebuild a fragile economy fighting two major internal insurrections, having to do that with major civil unrest would have tried the ability of Stalin’s regime to suppress.

So we are where we are. Close to 50% of Nigeria’s oil production capacity can’t be exported because of the Niger Delta Avengers. Sadly, I don’t see a short-term solution including a military one to the Niger Delta Avengers issues. A long-term solution to oil dependency is a key corner stone of the Buhari government. I expect firm foundations to be laid before election season starts late in 2017 or sometimes in 2018.

Away from the economy  and if you want to be fair and balanced, you will give the government significantly high pass mark in the prosecution of the Boko Haram war and the fact that General Monguno  is not just turning up at Central Bank HQ with his green trucks and driving away with bullion van loads of greenbacks. On both counts there is massive amounts of sanity. Yes there is a huge humanitarian crisis on the government’s hand in the North East and there is a perception that the government is not displaying competence in dealing with this perception. How is the government tackling this perception?  I will come back to this issue of tackling perceptions later.

Aside from security and corruption, many rightly worry about the economy. There is also a perception that the overall economy is been addressed in a concerted manner, there are further allegations of incompetence with the economic management.

On human rights / anti corruption issues, there are what appears to be evidence of sclerotic / schizophrenic governance. It appears one hand does not know what the other hand is doing on these issues.

Prior to 7 days ago,  I mostly heard these allegations of incompetence & poor management from avowed opponents of the present government until I was privileged to sit with a few people in the know. And it is obvious that some of the gist we pick up on Main Street have their root in actual live events within the government.

For starters, the APC umbrella –  coalition of ex PDP, ACN & CPC is busting at the seam. The intrigues started with the choice of Vice President, continued with the election of principal officers of the national assembly, the forming of government and are still having an impact. It appears individuals within the ACN wing are building their own power base and rightly or wrongly are not bringing the dominant ACN faction into the heart of the government. Also some members of the CPC arm & the Kaduna State governor appear to be members of the President’s kitchen cabinet and have apparently gained more from President Buhari’s government.

There is a view that the Finance Minister while very good at all the cost control initiatives is not strategic enough in dealing with longer term and more complex strategic issues that will help with the restructuring of government finances

Another major & important gripe is the exchange rate management policy of the CBN.  The consensus on Main Street is that the policy is wrong. One example that was pointed out is the issue of Naira / USD forward rate for 2017. It appears the CBN has settled for N225. I have tried to find an official type statement / confirmation of this without success however the rate was widely quoted in the media a few weeks ago. This link is one example – http://www.financialwatchngr.com/2016/06/28/cbn-foresees-n225-convergence-rate-futures-spot-fx-markets/

This forward rate is almost half the parallel market rate today and it is challenging to see how the CBN will be able to fulfill its obligations with respect to this forward rate in 2017.

In addition to economic management issues, there is the worry that President Buhari is the only one fighting corruption. At least one appointee of the president is reported to have uttered this statement. This is worrying especially when you read about some of the allegations in the papers against people who are close to the President and you also correlate these media reports with the brazen manner in which someone like the Minister of State for Petroleum publicly and brazenly swiped away the monumental corruption surrounding the land purchase for the Maritime University Okerenkoko, you are almost tempted to believe that only President Buhari is fighting corruption.

Finally the view that there will be a re – alignment of forces come 2019 is 100% true. What shape or form this will take nobody knows. I don’t think Nigeria/Nigerians is at the core of any re-alignment of forces by politicians. It is personal benefit. Politicians will be politicians.

Personally, I think Nigeria is fortunate to have President Buhari especially at this time. Although I curse the man’s luck that he is the President at the worst possible economic moment of the country’s history. I think Nigeria needed him in 1983 and needs him more even now.

Our country has lots of structural issues and lots of citizens with no interest in doing anything the right away. Our economy is built on falsehood – banks profiting from FX round tripping and fraudulent handling of government funds, our telecommunication companies provide poor and atrocious non service and break every law going, petroleum companies including the international ones have a reputation for stealing the country’s crude, the main business of manufacturing companies is FX while they have a small sideline producing goods.

Our captains of industries are very adept at persuading any minister to sign them a piece of paper that adds another N1b to their personal net worth. So please miss me with the economy is going down the pan argument. We’ve been leaving in denial for a long time and we did not have anybody to tell us.

Within the current circumstances, I think Buhari is doing a good steady job. I will rate him a solid 6 out of 10 at the very minimum. I don’t expect a 10 from any human. Even Obama has not scored a 10. Yes there is significant room for improvement and I hope that improvement comes as it will be a disaster if the political class were to coalesce around a tried, tested and failed politician & administrator like Atiku and win him the presidency. That would be a disaster. Nigeria does not need a leader who openly believes in the ‘Chop I Chop’ mentality at this moment. We need people who can offer symbolic and actual leadership on the fundamental issue of corruption and lack of values that permeate our society.

While I understand that improving the economy and laying the right foundation will be a long hard slog, there are a few things I think the President can do to better now.

Communication, Communication & more Communication. The Communication Team at the moment are always behind the news curve. Legend has it that President Buhari doesn’t believe in “Dogo Turenci”. Rightly so. But communication is a fundamental human need and the people of Nigeria have an inalienable right to hear from the government. A holding response to an emerging issue with appropriate timescales is a response.

The government should publish its communications principles, review constructive criticism and review those principles if necessary. Let people know in what circumstances the President will feel it is appropriate to comment on issues that are not of significant national importance. For example, let the government educate Nigerians that going forward, on any health related issue, the Health Ministry will communicate to Nigerians. If the Ministry of Health is worried about the implication of his people issuing gaffe prone statements that might damage the minister’s, ministry’s or the government’s reputation, let him upgrade the quality of his people and or use the professional expertise at the Centre of government. If there are inter ministerial issues, the ministries involved should issue a joint statement under the coordination of the fulcrum of government – the Secretary of the government.

On the economy, the well – meaning critics, the neutral observers and detractors might all be right that the government is not taking all the measures they think is necessary. However I know enough to state that the best place to be and offer recommendations is on the outside, looking in. Governments exists for all citizens, it has international obligations. A country the size of Nigeria with all the Boko Haram issues have significant diplomatic eggshells to tread.

There are occasions when the obvious economic step is not necessarily in the long-term interest of the country. A very good example is the Cameron government in the UK. The government took many far-reaching economic decisions that economists and the markets considered the right decisions. Ultimately, the same government lost a referendum largely on the back of the resentments generated by the economic decisions they took. I suspect Mr. Cameron might have delayed the introduction of some of those policies if he realized that the electorate might later reward him with a Brexit sized conundrum.

The somewhat negative perception of the government on economic management is something that can be tackled with communication too. The government should tell us what they are doing, tell us why you are doing it, tell us what results they expect and within what time frame. And they should tell us again and again using different methods – direct and indirect communication, review of policy formulation and implementation by balanced and fair economists with no horse in the game. If there are any grey areas or any areas of philosophical disagreements, explain them in a way wont lead to a loss of market confidence.

The government should find influential people like musicians, comedians, and actors/actresses who have goodwill for the President, get them to do stuff pro bono for a President they admire. For their country. Think back to Veno Marioghae’s song about ‘Andrew Not Checking Out’ in the 80s – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaD8AhKXonI  Think of the recent remix of Harrysong’s music piece – “After the Reggae Play The Blues’. They all have a role to play in communication and it doesn’t have to cost as much as a fraction of the bill Very High Chief Dokpesi & AIT presented to former President GEJ.

Ultimately, I think it all boils down to the economy especially now that Boko Haram is a receding threat.  While I realize that communication on its own won’t put food on our collective table, I think I speak for myself and for many when I say that communicating better makes the long tough and arduous journey to economic revival somewhat more bearable.

Baba Grumpy works in Financial Services in the United Kingdom. He blogs mostly about football at http://babagrumpy.blogspot.co.uk. His Twitter handle is @BabaGrumpy