TheCable

BY OLUMIDE DEJI OKE-OLAWUYI

Suddenly, so suddenly, the world has changed, our lifestyles are re ordered, and things may never be the same again. Suddenly, so suddenly our political, economic and social realities have become disrupted. Never in recent history has the world been so hard hit by a pandemic like it is viciously being plundered by the Covid 19. It is a silent convulsion of the current world order, an invisible upset, it is Corona Virus. Corona Virus is about the most popular word on the lips of everyone today. The reason for this is indubitable; the virus without doubt has turned out to be a monstrous plague to be feared by all. It is feared by the high and the low, the mighty and the weak, the rich and the poor. The virus is so lethal that it breaks boundaries without fear or favor. It is not limited by class, social status, religion, creed or political affiliations. Interestingly the virus does not know PDP, APC or APGA for that matter; it is neither a Buharist nor is it a wailer. It is a fearlessly monstrous and virulent apolitical foe that may leave tears and agony in its trail depending on how it decides to treat its victims.

We are confronted with a dreaded monster that is not limited by class, status or the tall fences of mansions in Asokoro, Maitama or Banana Island. Interestingly VIPs are not immune from the virus; their siren laden trucks with the overzealous team of gun wielding blue beret policemen cannot boot out the virus like they do to harmless citizens. Like my Hausa brothers will exclaim, ‘mun shiga uku’. In literary terms, this translates to mean that we are or may be in trouble. Shhhhhhhhh… please hear this in whispers; this virus has defied many security checks to steal ‘prominents’ from presidential palaces irrespective of demographic, social or economic class and classifications.  What a virus. There is therefore a need to review the impact of this pandemic on our lives and livelihood.

COVID; THE FACTS, REALITIES, AND OPPORTUNITIES:

Many experts, opinion leaders, academicians and writers have painted a picture of a very grim future in the wake of the economic downturns occasioned by the negativities generated by the impact of the Corona Virus pandemic. They are all convergent on the fact that many economies will take the heat and eventual hit following the crash in oil prices. McKinsey and co is quoted by Bloomberg to predict a 3.4% contraction in Nigeria’s economy this year. According to Mckinsey, ‘that would be the most since 1983, according to World Bank data. In a worst-case scenario, in which the outbreak becomes more widespread both domestically and abroad, the economy could shrink almost 9%’’. Wow. Scary, isn’t it?

Nigeria’s economy is almost absolutely oil dependent in real terms and thus is taking a life threatening blow from the virulently dwindling prices and fortunes of oil price. The government has had to cut the budget (average) oil benchmark to $30 per barrel, from $57 and lowered its oil output forecast to 1.7 million barrels per day from 2.18 million. Breath taking, is it not?

Oil prices have further plummeted to as low as $16 per barrel and the government of the day has had to dip its hands in the Sovereign wealth fund by unlocking $150 million dollars to help provide revenue to State governments. I pity those almost mentally non productive state governments though. I hope one day they will not be economically enervated.

Nigeria at the moment is experiencing a gradually increasing rate of Covid 19 cases and is clearly hard hit by dwindling oil prices and capital flight. Many more states since the index case was announced are now catching the virus. These developments threaten to put the economy into a recession and eventually a depression. The numbers clearly do not look good; this accounts for why the Fitch Ratings of March 26 further downgraded Nigeria’s credit rating into what Bloomberg describes as ‘junk territory’. The near absolute dependence on oil which accounts for more than half of the government’s revenue is responsible for this decision.

The government of the day is trying hard to wriggle its way out of an unexpected economic emergency. The prayer is that may Nigeria at this stage not require an ‘Economic Ventilator’. The government has locked down three major states in a bid to fight the advancement and spread of Covid 19. The government seems to be in a dilemma as to how it plans to assuage or ameliorate the sufferings of the masses from a corruption-bullet riddled federal purse.

The picture isn’t looking good at all. So now;

FURTHER BORROWING:

Nigeria has enjoyed 53 years of massive oil exploration, drilling and commercial sales of crude oil. It is however very sad and disheartening to note that successive leadership of the country has not been able to put the proceeds of oil sales and at some points, wind fall to judicious use. Bad governance and corruption has devoured a better part of our resources as a nation.

We are already a nation enmeshed and soaked in extensive debt. That notwithstanding, we have no choice than to go a borrowing. According the the finance minister, Nigeria plans to borrow a total of 6.9billion dollars from multilateral (IMF, World Bank, ADB) lenders to help fund efforts to check the impact of Covid 19 on its economy. Bad as the numbers and predictions may appear, the pandemic presents a myriad of opportunities to us a nation.

MULTI DIMENSIONAL OPPORTUNITIES:

I believe in Nigeria. I believe in the innate capacity of Nigerians to rise from the debris of any form of challenges no matter how bad the situation may be; after all, this is a nation that has witnessed the debilitating effect of a civil war and rose from it without a “victor nor vanquished”, this is also a nation that has fought and defeated insurgencies like the Mai Tasine and several other civil unrests. Nigeria is fighting and will one day defeat the dreaded Boko Haram terrorists.  Is this not a country that has had its resources plundered in such a rapacious and brigand manner for God knows how long and it is still standing, although in fragility?

Nigeria has fought and will one day beat the cancer of corruption in its tracks. The figures may paint a picture of a precarious situation, but the future remains hopeful. As a nation and people, this pandemic presents us with a multi dimensional platform for a positive revolution.  I foresee a revolution in the political, social and economic life of the country.  This will happen provided we take the lessons hidden in the dangers of the Covid 19 pandemic. This dangerous season has no doubt come with its opportunities.

The political front:

Politically, this season has taught us as citizens to elect persons with proven track records of performance and integrity into political offices. As it stands today, the resources from the central purse are dwindling and may dry up if it is expected to be replenished by oil proceeds. What this means is that states may not be able to function properly as hand outs from the federation account may not be forth coming regularly anymore.  Bail outs may become a near impossibility while there may be no loan approvals from banks who themselves must watch their back. At such a time as this, what we need are leaders with clear capacity to think, innovate, create and manage crucial emergencies such as this.  It will no longer be a season of political beggarliness or obsequiousness.  All those will die. It is a season that calls for creative and knowledgeable leaders who will not be running to the central government cap in hand to wait for bail or hand outs. There will be nothing to steal anyways. So it is up to our governors to start thinking.

In the words of Senator Dino Melaye

“…We now have a chance to think out of the box, in fact this maybe our chance to throw away the box. Just like the world changed after WW2, we are going to experience shifts and changes in international relationships and huge shifts in the flow of wealth and capital over time. This time around it is our chance as Nigerians, as Africans, as the 3rd World to contribute to the narrative..”

NATIONAL SECURITY:

Without sounding like a prophet of doom, the situation will most likely throw up more Security concerns as the mode and nature of the business of the underworld will change. There will be new dimensions to crime and criminality. New sets of criminals created by hunger and the need for survival will emerge.  Security threats and breaches will increase; the poor may grow an appetite to eat the rich. So our leaders must be forward looking to mitigate the effect of the post oil depression season. They must think to create new income channels around Agriculture and develop small and medium business opportunities around the Agriculture value chain. There must be a ‘de-emphasization’ of the need for over reliance on blue collar jobs as there would not be so many available anyways. In order words, a gradual self -restructure process may have been triggered. States must now run as productive, self sustaining profit centers and not the parasitic drain pipes many of them have been to the federation account.

What Nigeria needs at this stage of its development are leaders who can and will think, innovate and creatively provide leadership at a time like this and not leaders whose only aim will be to nurture the appetite of their megalomaniac whims and caprices. Corruption must be fought to a standstill or this will precipitate extreme reactions from an already frustrated and angry populace.

THE ECONOMY:

Furthermore, on the economic front, may I mention that this Corona season has demystified the political class. The oppressive blaring of sirens, gun wielding policemen and amour vehicles do not make them invincible.  The virus has closed the gap of segregation at least in “Corona” terms. Allow me to say this in local parlance, ‘dem dem sef dey catch coro’; they are humans and can be swallowed by the Corona virus after all. It has also shown us as citizens that waste is stop able and prudent leadership is possible. There has been need for meetings upon meetings by political office holders as this emergency situation naturally requires. Corona virus however forbids congregational meetings and unnecessary travels. That is one of its rules; you defy it, you pay dearly for it. The hitherto private jet flying and siren blaring political office holders have had to defend their lives by resorting to video aided meetings.  They didn’t have to travel with a myriad of aids and long convoy of vehicles. Those wastes were avoidable after all. Chai! They have had to activate the technological option of video streaming.  In fact our Governors Forum held its meeting in a virtual conference hall. Our president got an award for being the Best Covid warrior over a video streamed event. Governors now hold cabinet meetings over Skype or other media platforms.  They are now jumping over each other to brag about themselves as being technologically compliant in this season. Where have they been all this while? So it was actually possible to avoid those private jet trips? Thank you Covid 19 for showing up to tell us that WASTE CAN BE STOPPED. Whoever believed that a time as this will come when we can save scarce resources just by being financially disciplined. The truth is that the time has come for the pilfering and waste of public funds has to stop. We must stop the unnecessary travels by political office holders.  The waste and stress of travelling in endlessly long convoys of poorly managed luxury vehicles with its attendant risk of our policemen harassing innocent citizens has to be abolished, if we must thrive as a people. This pandemic has handed us an open check and an opportunity to know that only capable hands should be voted into political office. The quality of response we have received as citizens so far is enough gauge as to the capabilities of the leaders we have elected into political offices:

HEALTH SECTOR EMERGENCY:

The Nigerian health sector is in itself a pandemic to the people. The corona virus pandemic has screamed in very clear tones that there is an urgent need for our government to appraise, audit and carry out a comprehensive overhaul and revamping of infrastructure and systems especially in the health sector. The virus has been gracious enough to be unlimited by space, status or class. It has in fact been more vicious (or so it seems) within the elite strata of society when it made its debut onslaught. The message Baba Coro brought along with it has been delivered in very clear terms that ‘as you lay your bed, so you lie on it’. The political elite who had all the powers and resources to fix our continuously decaying health sector are now ‘locked down’ and cannot willfully and readily access ‘world class’ healthcare in the UK, Germany, Canada, USA, India, China or anywhere ‘in the abroad’. Everyone is now locked and lumped together by Baba Coro. At least our money can now be spent at home as even a free visa regime will not attract any of the VIPS abroad at the moment. This is incredulously ironic. The lessons are very clear and brief; if you lay your bed well by fixing the health sector there will be no need to go and treat common catarrh in ‘the abroad’. If the elite invest their resources in our health systems, then and only then can our country become the new hub for medical tourism within the West African sub-region and eventually Africa and the world at large. If the legislature and executive collaborate to think out of the box and diligently contrive appropriate policies to keep our numerous excellent medical brains back home, we would have been able to check the current brain drain that the health sector is being plagued with. It is time to put things right. It is time to prepare for the next pandemic. It may not be one hundred years ahead; what insulates the world from another virus in 2023 for instance? The answer to this question is in the preparations we make to get ready for future outbreaks.

HUMAN RESOURCES, OUR YOUTH AND SMEs:

The socio economic impact of this pandemic is and will be unprecedented. Life as we know it may never be the same again. The way we do business, relate, and interact would be greatly impinged on by the virus.

The nature and character of the Nigerian youth is an opportunity the government should tap into. The time to detoxify those youth that are always used as political thugs has come. Much as the pandemic is expected to slow businesses it will also expose us to new opportunities and strengthen some small and medium enterprises. This is so because the need for survival will encourage small businesses to fight back and they will kick start the economy with the right support from the government. My conviction finds its source in the fact that the average Nigerian youth is driven by passion and resilience in the midst of any crises. That innate drive to survive and succeed is a major strength of the average Nigerian. This brings us to the fact that the government can leverage on this basic human resource advantage of the average Nigerian to redirect our economy to non oil sources. The government should immediately adapt policies that will create opportunities for our teaming youth population.

The pandemic has also shown  Nigerians to be a people blessed with passion and love for one another. The level of self motivated support and palliatives distributed by Nigerians to their fellow compatriots shows that we are a people with a large heart. A people united in oneness with a firm resolve to defeat the monstrous virus and defend vulnerable brothers and sisters. That’s who we are.

It is important to note that if we can be united in our resolve to defeat this monster then we can resolve to kill bad governance and send corruption virus to the abyss of history. The Corona Virus pandemic has handed to us a strategic opportunity as a people to destroy the scourge of corruption that has bedeviled us as a people.

Technology and Trade:

The corona virus pandemic has brought to the fore the need to invest heavily in technology. Trans -border and local trade will now assume a seamless and less physical dimension. Border protection and management services will assume more technological dimensions; Social media and technology will become more prominent and powerful. Bottom line is that human and physical contact will be deemphasized while technology will hold sway. Artificial intelligence will take its seat on the front seat in human interactions.

Hygiene and healthcare services (and its retail arm) and businesses will now flourish. Good governance will now have to be a new normal as citizen awareness will now make accountability and good governance a new basic requirement for political systems. The opportunities are enormous. Oil and its stupendous revenue have now been demystified while other natural resources will attempt a takeover in the socio economic reality of Nigeria. Agriculture, food, natural resources mining and management, technology, small and medium scale enterprises, health care management, value chain management, the innovative and human resources industry will now be at the forefront of prosperity.

Covid 19 is deadly and monstrous, but it comes with its own enduring palliatives and opportunities for Nigerians at large. Where does your future lie?

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