TheCable

Despite the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, and the consequent death of over 230,000 people in the United States, the world power has been going on with its initially scheduled 2020 general election. So far, more than 99 million Americans have voted and the polls are yet to open. 

Unlike many other presidential elections in the country, the rest of the world is particularly interested in this one, and Nigeria and Nigerians are not left behind. Asides from the fact that there are over 370,000 Nigerians in the US, President Donald Trump’s foreign policy, including the recent visa ban means more Nigerians are interested in the election.

For many Nigerians, there is enough knowledge on the two top contenders — Donald Trump, and former vice-president Joe Biden.

President Donald Trump, who has been trailing in the polls, is nationalist and very focused on America first. He is opposed to abortion, climate change accord, Obamacare and has reduced US funding to multilateral organisations like the World Health Organisation (WHO).

Nigerians at home do not really care much about those, but Trump’s decision to place an immigrant visa ban on Nigeria is of more concern here.

His administration’s opposition to the election of Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as director-general of the World Trade Organisation is also a concern. His elections may mean more problems at the WTO and some other multilateral organisations.

Trump is popular among whites without a college degree and core Evangelicals.

Former vice-president Joe Biden is a different candidate entirely. While his decisions are unknown yet, experts believe he would tow a radically different line from what obtains with Trump.

He has said he would return to the climate change agreement Trump pulled out from. He would restore funding to the WHO, his stance on China will be different, and he is keen on abortion rights. He will stop the construction of the Mexican wall and re-jig immigration policy, possibly lifting the ban on Nigerians.

Biden is poised to undo many of Trump’s existing policies, including tax cuts for the rich. His stance on the WTO is not clear, but will likely mirror his decision on China.

Biden is popular with whites with a college degree and ethnic minorities. As Barack Obama’s vice-president for eight years, he is also seen as a friend of the African-American voting bloc. The polls predict a Biden win.

Here’s a quick look at both candidates:

A lot of information on the dynamics of the elections is blurry or totally unknown. TheCable attempts a quick explainer on the 2020 US general election, bringing you answers to the quick questions you may have.

Why have 99 million people voted before election day?

Americans can vote before the election day

The United States electoral system allows for early voting and absentee votings. This means the electorate can vote before the election day by requesting for a ballot paper to vote before the election. The electoral team will mail the ballot paper, the Amerians fills it and return it in good time — before the voting day.

Meena Bose, the executive dean for public policy at Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, told foreign journalists that she will be lecturing two classes on election day, so she decided to request for a ballot and vote before election day.  Many Americans are also taking the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse to vote early and from home, to avoid contact at the polling unit.

About 100 million Americans may vote before the polls open later on Tuesday.

Can Nigerians living in the US vote?

The simple answer is yes and no. A Nigerian schooling or working in the US with a resident permit or student visa may not be able to vote — if they are not citizens of the US. Nigerians, who are also US citizens, can vote in the elections. They have to be registered to do so.

Needless to say you must be 18 on or before election day to vote. You can register before you turn 18, but you must be 18 on election day to vote. North Dakota is the only state that does not require registration.

It is unclear how many Nigerian-Americans are registered to vote in 2020.

The highest number of votes does not guaranty victory. Why?

In Nigeria, you need the simple majority, and at least 25% of the votes in two–thirds of the 36 states in the country. In the US, you do not need the simple majority. You need 270 electoral college votes — and this may not mean the simple majority.

In 2016 for example, Hillary Clinton had 2.86 million more votes than Trump, but Trump won because he had 270 electoral college votes. Electoral college votes matter more than simple majority votes.

What then is electoral college and how does it work?

The Electoral College decides who occupies the White House — not necessarily the electorate.

The electoral college is not a school, it’s a group of representatives of each state called electors. The founding fathers of the United States did not believe in just numbers, but representatives. They worried that states with higher populations will always produce the president.

So they allocated number of votes to states, based on the number of representatives they have in congress. California has 55 representatives in Congress, hence, the state has 55 electoral college votes. Florida has 29, while Washington DC, the seat of power has just three votes.

The US has 100 senators, 435 house of representatives members, and three electors from DC, bringing the total number of votes to 538. For a candidate to win in 2020, he has to win in states with higher electoral college votes — these states are called the key states.

Despite having less votes in 2016, Trump won 304 electoral college votes, while Clinton won only 227.

What happens when there’s a tie? The simple majority win?

It is very rare to have a tie in the general vote count because they are millions of people voting. But it is easy to have a tie in the electoral college, because there are only 538 votes.

But if there is a tie, the US does not fall back to the simple majority — even if one candidate has five million popular votes more than the other.

“In the case of the tie, it gets thrown into the US House of Representatives if there’s no winner. And that’s a whole other process that we don’t have a lot of experience with because that has only happened once,” Lonna Atkeson, executive director of the Center for the Study of Voting at University of New Mexico, said at a foreign press briefing.

If that happens in 2020, the winner of the election will be decided by the new house of representatives in January 2021. This would be one vote per district.

When is a winner naturally declared?

A winner could be called as early as 11pm on election night or later in the week, depending on who gets the necessary states count early enough.

If the states do not submit results early enough, it could be longer. If there is an electoral college tie of 269 to 269, then the winner is not determine till January 2021.