ADC is a distraction across the board

BY ABU QUASSIM

The new poster party in the Nigerian political landscape is the African Democratic Congress (ADC). It was formerly a small, sleeping platform until two weeks ago when some leaders of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), All Progressives Congress (APC), and Labour Party came together and, after exploiting various options they could use as a platform for contesting the coming elections, adopted it.

Since the beginning of the month, this refurbished party has dominated discussions on both traditional and social media spaces. Its leaders are speaking about what the new platform represents and the justification for the sudden massing of politicians of all hues and cries there. They have also received good attacks from sympathizers of the incumbent government who saw the rehabilitated platform as a gang-up against President Bola Tinubu and his party, APC.

The ADC’s stealthy entry into the political consciousness of Nigerians almost 18 months before another round of elections became a sudden reverse needed for the rampaging onslaught on the rest of the political parties by the APC. From the beginning of this year, President Tinubu and his party have swept many incumbent governors and National Assembly members off the party on whose platform they were elected.

At least two governors and not less than 30 federal legislators had defected from the PDP, Labour, and Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso-led New Nigeria Democratic Party (NNDP) into the ruling APC. Still, a few more governors are being rumoured to be nursing the idea of leaving the PDP and Labour for the APC. President Tinubu and his handlers seem to have concluded that what they need to put the race for 2027 beyond the reach of their likely opponents is to empty the elements in the other parties into their fold.

Like the Yoruba man that he is, Tinubu may have concluded that when a good cook sees a small portion of water boiling on the stove, he develops the idea to quickly use it for preparing okro soup. That cook will not contemplate the preparation of any soup when the water on the stove is massive. Omi to ba mo niwon ni a nre Ila si.

Thus, the APC strategists have decided to use massive defection into their party as a way of unsettling the opposition parties and winning the election before the voting period. This calculation is coupled with another strategy of destabilizing the leading opposition parties such that they would all be lying prostrate as at election time. It is therefore not a surprise that before the advent of this ADC, the PDP, LP, and NNDP were in crisis.

In the case of LP and NNDP, there were rival factions laying claim to the leadership of the parties. The various suits filed have produced endless outcomes. Each faction gives different interpretations to the verdicts and overall, it has been a case of endless litigation. In the PDP, a member of the APC government who also doubles as a member of the opposition party has ensured that there is constant unease in the party’s leadership.

Suddenly, this ADC has changed the tempo in the political terrain. It has given APC strategists and leaders something to worry about. The APC now has a major concern that has distracted it from the diligent pursuit of the politics of mass defection into its fold. It is no longer so keen about whether or not PDP holds a successful National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting aimed at preparing for a hitch-free national convention.

Like the PDP, the Labour, NNPP, APGA, and the rest of them now have a respite. The ADC has distracted the attention of the APC from them all. However, the aforementioned distractions are just the positive ones. ADC is also a distraction that may stop the opposition from presenting a united front against the APC.

Before its sudden emergence, the main opposition party was the PDP. Many had believed that all the PDP needed to tackle APC was to overcome its self-induced crisis. Now, ADC has broken the ranks of the opposition. It has turned the political contest into a three-way race. The opposition is no longer cohesive. It is split.

The split implies that APC can heave a sigh of relief that the forces against it will not be arrayed on one end. They will be scattered, with each appearing weaker than they would have been if coagulated and made to act in unity. The ADC now symbolises disunity in the ranks of the opposition.

This ADC distraction cannot help the plans of the opposition to upset the ruling APC. Recent history has shown that the only time the opposition defeated the ruling party in Nigeria was in 2015. And this was made possible by the coming together of all opposition parties under a coalition structure. Incidentally, APC was the coalition platform that then torpedoed the PDP.

Many of us were thinking that with the anger and hunger in the land which have mobilized the public against President Tinubu and his APC, the opposition would play the reverse game by coalescing under PDP to take over power and provide good governance. Today, ADC has emerged as a separate platform from PDP and is seeking to join all other parties in seeking power in 2027 which shows a deficiency in the strategy of the opposition.

The PDP is a better platform to be used by the opposition in the contest against the APC. Why do I think so? APC is the oldest party in Nigeria. It is the only surviving one among the three legacy parties with which the military government kick-started the present democracy. It has name recognition. Its umbrella is present across all the 774 LGAs in the country. Hardly is there a village or hamlet in this country that a PDP member or the poster, billboard, and other insignia of the party are not present. And this is despite losing power ten years ago.

In circumstances where ADC will still be struggling to open offices or put up new structures, the PDP already has all the necessary assets. Therefore, the PDP is a better option in hoisting the flag of the opposition. It would have been better if all the opposition elements had gathered under the PDP umbrella and challenged the APC for power in 2027.

This calculation would further sharpen the nature of our party system as a two-party arrangement. Then, the distraction constituted by the ADC would have only been to the non-performing APC government rather than the confusing signals it may also now send to those who don’t want APC but are now unsure of whether a fragmented opposition can win against a rampaging ruling party.

In any case, it is a time-tested political lore that in a three-way race, the incumbent is more likely to win. This is because a slim majority win will be enough for the ruling party to emerge victorious. The votes would have been shared and stretched too thin across the board for any of the parties to have a commanding victory.

As it is, the ADC has created some trouble for the ruling APC. It has equally planted some doubts in the minds of many individuals as to how ready the opposition is to take over power. At least for now, the 2014 APC scenario is not about to be rekindled. It is not APC versus the rest of the opposition under one platform.

Will the result end like that of 2015? Or will the difference in approach also produce a different result? We can only wait to observe events as they unfold.

Quassim writes from Abuja.