TheCable

It is doubtful if an average commentator in Nigeria can afford not to be repetitive. You are forced to write about the same issues repeatedly because citizens don’t change for the better, just as governments at all levels pretend not to know what to do. This caveat is necessary so that one does not sound like a broken record.

I return to the theme that has been explored variously in this column in the last two months. One has lamented on how our fault lines are deepening as a society where intolerance reigns supreme, just as attempts at re-writing history or fiddling with facts have received adequate attention while not forgetting to implore us all to sift out frivolous politicians from the serious ones. But it appears many of us still think that our country is immune to some shocks that we have witnessed in other places.

And that’s why Professor Bolaji Akinyemi’s letter last week to President Goodluck Jonathan and General Muhammadu Buhari should give all of us serious concern as we approach the February 14, 2015 election.  The letter, dated December 16, was widely published in the media but I’m not sure Nigerians have fully digested its contents otherwise many of us should be talking about it and the steps we ought to take.  Two paragraphs speak eloquently about the looming danger if we did not call our political combatants to order.

The professor said: “……..the certainty of violence after the 2015 elections is higher than it was in 2011. If President Jonathan wins, the North would erupt into violence as it did in 2011. If General Buhari wins, the Niger Delta will erupt into violence. I don’t believe that we need rocket science to make this prediction.

“The violence of 2015 is going to be horrendous and worse than the one of 2011 for the simple reason that the illegal, massive importation of weapons into the country has reached such alarming proportions that I really wonder which is better armed, the militias on one hand or the official armed forces on the other hand.”

I suspect there might be some of us who think that the former foreign affairs minister might be an alarmist thereby minimizing the risks we face.  If we juxtaposed the letter with the utterances of politicians, we will see why we should be more concerned. We have heard how a governor said his party will not accept the election results if they lost, nearly three months before the election, conveniently overlooking the fact a day is like eternity in politics where permutations can change without notice. Similarly, another politician said soldiers have the right to protest against the Federal Government forgetting that the military should be insulated against politics. Another politician called a presidential candidate ‘semi-illiterate’ which is double jeopardy for the bad English usage and uncouth way used in describing someone some Nigerians believe he is the best that could lead our country. Repeatedly, many do not see anything wrong in calling President Jonathan ‘clueless’ among other pejorative words they could come up with.

As one who has witnessed elections before 1999 as an adult, the only thing that is sure this time around is that we have, probably, a proper electoral contest playing out. The presidential election will be a closely fought one where nobody has a crystal ball that can show where the pendulum will swing as at today. That’s why we have to be careful playing upon citizens’ emotion, making them think a particular candidate is invincible. No geopolitical zone is strong enough to swing the election for either Jonathan or Buhari, all the zones are important. Mudslinging is part of any electoral contest, but we are making it to be the only issue. Little is said about policy or manifesto, which should be the working document after election.

A constant trawl of social networking sites would reveal crude attempts at re-writing history with people blatantly denying their preferred candidate utter some stupid comments. Even when they are supplied evidence, many thanks to the information age, they still prefer to live in denial.  It’s up to those of us who have seen this country on the precipice at some difficult moments like the civil war, post-June 12, 1993 election annulment, and the brutal years of the late dictator, Sani Abacha, to remind those who want to bring down the roof on all Nigerians. But I still think you don’t have to experience such moments before you do the right thing.

Back to Akinyemi’s letter, who is supposed to prepare for post-election violence in Nigeria as the signs are there for all to see?