TheCable

An opinion poll conducted by Anap Foundation, a civil society group, has predicted a win for Babajide Sanwo-Olu and Aminu Tambuwal in the March 9 governorship election.

Sanwo-Olu is the governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Lagos state while Tambuwal, Sokoto state governor, is the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Sokoto.

The poll commissioned by ANAP foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited that all respondents are registered voters who had obtained their permanent voter cards (PVCs) and that the voters’ sample mimicked the INEC register in terms of both zonal distribution and demography.

The poll revealed that the governorship election in Lagos will be a two-horse race between Sanwo-Olu and Jimi Agbaje, candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

“The respondents to our 2019 detailed Lagos State Governorship poll tell us that top six (6) reasons for backing Sanwo-Olu are:- Continuity (50%), Popularity (9%), Just like him/Charisma(8%) Good Ideas (7%) and Good leadership skills (7%). Only 2% of Sanwo-Olu’s backers are doing so because they believe he has integrity,” the foundation said in a statement.

“Meanwhile, top 5 reasons for backing Agbaje are: – Change in Governance (70%), Better Candidate (21%), Just like him/Charisma (6%), Competence (2%) and Integrity (1%).

“From the results, when asked who respondents will be voting for in the coming 2019 Governorship elections, the figures put Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu in the lead (but with only 28% of the votes) over Mr Jimi Agbaje (with 17%).

“Sanwo-Olu’s lead is sizeable but clearly not unassailable because the largest concentration of Undecided voters reside in the Lagos Central zone, where he is weakest. Voter turnout can also make a big difference on the day, especially if there is a huge turnout. A poor turnout favours Mr Sanwo-Olu.”

However, the poll puts Tambuwal in a significant lead, with 41 per cent of the votes, over Ahmed Aliyu, candidate of the APC, with 24 per cent.

“Governor Aminu Tambuwal’s lead is sizeable and looks unassailable when demography (Youths) and support by female voters are factored in. It is unlikely that voter turnout can make a big difference on the day as Governor Aminu Tambuwal’s lead appears to be solid all round and with no visible disparity across the three Senatorial Zones; he scores between 40 and 41% in all three Senatorial zones,” it said.

“Anap Foundation has concluded that Governor Aminu Tambuwal appears set to win this election convincingly.”