TheCable

BY ZAYYAD MUHAMMAD

The 2023 battle will be very interesting. Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu has commenced a very difficult but exciting journey – his quest to be president of Nigeria in 2023. Tinubu would face four big obstacles- firstly, his faith. Secondly, the choice of a running mate. Thirdly, the rugged politics the PDP would play — the PDP may field in a northern presidential candidate, and just ‘Siddon-look’, put the APC on the defensive. And, fourthly, how the north would vote relative to Amotekun and anti-Fulani sentiments in the southwest. And, fifthly, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo supporters are on the move — solely focused on the presidency with confidence.

Tinubu, a Muslim from the south-west, might have a free sail at home because of the complex nature of the socio-political settings of the south-west. But to appeal to other zones in the country, he will be in a quandary in respect of his choice of a running mate. If he picks a Christian from the north, the bulk of APC support in the north — the Muslim north, will look the other way. If he picks a Muslim from the north, the whole country will certainly be against a presidential Muslim-Muslim ticket. However, if the PDP picks its presidential candidate from the north, he may get some ‘relief’ in the south

Operation Amotekun and Sunday Igboho’s January 2021 one-week ultimatum to Fulani herdsmen to vacate the southwest, his old statement – ‘ I don’t believe in one Nigeria’ will be another weapon that will be used against Tinubu in the north.

Tinubu’s war chest is enormous, his political tactics are shrewd, his political structure is solid, widespread, and well-organised.- they recently ‘bombarded’ the north and scared their opponents. Tinubu is a good candidate but has a big dilemma as mentioned above.

On the other hand, the 2023 presidential election battle will be very interesting – like this writer has always maintained, PDP will be on the offensive, while the ruling APC will be on the defensive. The flag bearers of either political party will also have many political hurdles to cross.

Most people expect the 2023 presidential election finale to be an Atiku vs Tinubu game. Atiku vs Tinubu will be an interesting game; a very big one. Two similar people with similar public perception, similar game style, an ‘I know you, you know me‘ scenario will come to play. The two have well-established political structures that can easily scare an opponent. They pay their own bills so the contest would be 100% politics, politics, politics- even the choice of the running mates. It will be a fascinating zero-sum game. Both have similar advantages and disadvantages.

Muhammad writes from Abuja. He can be reached via [email protected] or 08036070980