Atiku’s never-say-die spirit and reality

Very few politicians in Nigeria today are as durable as Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. Perhaps, many of his followers among the young generation of Nigerians would not know that Atiku had been a stalwart as far back as in 1993 when he had to surrender his presidential ambition to the late MKO Abiola who emerged as a front runner and later won the presidential election of that year and had Atiku not been literally muscled out of the race, he would likely have been Nigeria’s president at the age of 46. What he could have achieved being the number one citizen of Nigeria at such a young age has since been left to conjecture, however. But the fact remains that he had his ambition ambushed by higher forces.

When Atiku resurfaced in 1999 as vice president to Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, the dark horse ex-soldier and former military head of state who became president after democratic rule was restored, many had thought that it was only a matter of time for Atiku to realise his ambition to be Nigeria’s president. Specifically, it was thought that by 2007, when Obasanjo would have had his two terms in office, it would easily be Atiku’s turn to lead the country. The odds were heavily in his favour. Obasanjo, a southerner, would have done eight years, and Atiku, a northerner, would have mounted the saddle. It would have been “power rotation” at its best, seamlessly. Whatever had happened between Atiku and his principal, such that their relationship soured and very nearly crumbled the polity, is not specifically the subject of this piece. Suffice it, however, to say that the fact that the late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, rather than Atiku, succeeded Obasanjo in 2007, signalled the end of Atiku’s presidential ambition. Although this stark reality appears till this day not to have sat in well with Atiku and especially his crowd of followers, the losses he suffered in the 2015, 2019 and 2023 polls should have driven him to some introspection with a view to seeking to become a king maker rather than the king, especially with the reality of the incumbent President Bola Tinubu looking like the last septuagenarian that would lead Nigeria in modern era. Atiku, now 78, has age stacked against him, aside from other factors that would emerge as he pushes on with his presidential ambition. It is just that reality, no matter how naked, is scarcely in the reckoning of the typical Nigerian politician.

Little wonder, Atiku, who recently coalesced with a coterie of seemingly disgruntled politicians to launch a party they called African Democratic Congress (ADC) to prepare a new platform for his presidential ambition, has lately declared his intention to contest against Tinubu in 2027. But controversy has dogged the ADC’s launch, as it has also presented the party as lacking a clear vision and focus to claim its “opposition” title. However, this particular observation would only be a matter for another day. Atiku says his latest ambition derives from Nigeria needing “to be decisively rescued from the intensive care unit it has been consigned to”. He also says, “the degeneration in our country, the level of poverty and pain, the anguish, is unacceptable”.

In a move that smacks of desperation, Atiku has since said he would not spend more than a term of four years in office if elected president under the banner of ADC. Needless, of course, to say that he already assumes he would get the party’s presidential nomination, although it is a teething period for the ADC and its national convention is still far away.

He continues: “The accompanying deceit, the loss of values, the mega-scale, unimpeded thievery and the absolute lack of accountability must disturb every concerned patriot. I will be offering myself to lead the reclamation and reconstruction of our traumatised homeland.”

In making this declaration, Atiku seems not in congruence with some ADC members who cast doubt on whether he would contest in 2027, and he does not appear to care about what the members feel. As far as he is concerned, there is a long-standing ambition to achieve. It also does not appear to matter to him that brokering unity in the party is far more profitable for him than gunning for a presidential nomination to literally put a dagger to the party’s unity. Nor does it occur to him that his presidential quest could complicate ongoing negotiations within the party that is evidently struggling to balance regional power demands and the ambitions of his frontline members, who are also not hiding their presidential dreams. It is common knowledge that as northerner Atiku pursues the party’s presidential nomination, former Anambra State governor and Labour Party’s flagbearer in the 2023 presidential election, Mr. Peter Obi, and former Rivers State governor and immediate past minister of transportation, Chief Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, both southerners, are also eyeing the party’s ticket while pushing for the presidential nomination to be zoned to the south.

Like Atiku, Obi and Amaechi are also promising to spend only one term in office as president if they secure the ADC’s nomination, pledging to return power to the north thereafter. It is still not clear if Atiku would surrender to any arrangement that would upend his ambition, no matter if his action would spark a crisis of zoning and succession within the party.

Could it be, then, that Atiku has suddenly seen the handwriting on the wall and backed down?

In what looks like a volte face, he says he would “back any one that emerges as the ADC candidate”. He is said to have made this fresh declaration in Lagos while addressing members of the party during the welcome ceremony for defectors from other parties. “It is not a thing we can predetermine. I will support whoever emerges through free and fair contest,” he is quoted to have said. For effect, he also said: “We are not imposing anyone on the people.”

Fair enough.

But can he be trusted on his word when the chips are finally down? It is still early in the day, anyway.