Thursday, February 21, 2019

Lukman Otunuga

    Nigeria GDP on the radar ahead of presidential election

Nigeria GDP on the radar ahead of presidential election

It has been a positive trading week for the Nigerian stock market with the All-Share Index pushing higher despite US-China trade talks pessimism denting global risk sentiment.Local equity markets are seen pushing higher next week if Nigeria’s GDP growth for Q4 exceeds market expectations.Away from macro fundamentals, the presidential elections will be in sharp focus. Whatever the election outcome, [...]

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    CBN leaves rates unchanged as IMF downgrades growth

CBN leaves rates unchanged as IMF downgrades growth

In a widely expected move, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has left interest rates unchanged at 14% for January.Signs of rising inflationary pressures are likely to fuel speculation over the central bank tightening monetary policy, especially as government spending increases ahead of the presidential elections. With rising inflation in Nigeria seen threatening the Naira exchange and economic stability, the [...]

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    Naira buoyed by trade optimism and rebounding oil prices

Naira buoyed by trade optimism and rebounding oil prices

The Naira entered Tuesday’s trading session in a steady fashion amid optimism over US-China trade talks and rebounding oil prices.Although a majority of emerging market currencies were impacted by a stabilizing Dollar, the Naira stood out from the pack by holding gains of around 358N on the parallel exchange.With the Dollar seen weakening in the medium term on expectations over [...]

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    Nigeria ends 2018 on a cautious note — 2019 elections in focus

Nigeria ends 2018 on a cautious note — 2019 elections in focus

It has been another monumental year for the Nigerian economy which continued to display resilience against domestic and external headwinds.The healthy combination of easing inflationary pressures, foreign exchange stability and rising commodity prices initially stabilized Nigeria’s macro fundamentals. With domestic conditions clearly improving and foreign investor appetite increasing, expectations were elevated over the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) cutting interest [...]

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    Naira struggles to benefit from US-China trade truce

Naira struggles to benefit from US-China trade truce

Optimism over the temporary trade truce announced between the two largest economies in the world after the G-20 Summit in Argentina last weekend has played a leading role in uplifting global risk sentiment today.The combination of Dollar weakness and improving risk appetite is a welcome development for most major emerging market currencies. However, the Nigerian Naira has yet again struggled [...]

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    Falling oil prices weigh on Nigerian economy, G20 Summit in focus

Falling oil prices weigh on Nigerian economy, G20 Summit in focus

The recent depreciation in oil prices presents significant risks to oil export-dependent nations, with Nigeria falling into the category.Depressed oil prices will not only shave government revenues but also the nation’s ability to implement its 2019 budget which pegged oil prices at $60 per barrel. If the Central Bank of Nigeria finds itself in a difficult position to defend the [...]

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    Higher US interest rates burn through Nigeria’s reserves

Higher US interest rates burn through Nigeria’s reserves

Defending the Nigerian Naira against the mighty Dollar has come at a steep price to the central bank of Nigeria in the form of falling reserves.Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves have declined by roughly $2.1 billion in the last 30 days thanks to a broadly stronger Dollar and prospects of higher US interest rates.With the Fed expected to raise interest rates [...]

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    US-China dispute, South Africa’s recession… is the naira safe?

US-China dispute, South Africa’s recession… is the naira safe?

It has certainly been an explosively volatile trading quarter thus far as investors juggled with global trade tensions, dollar strength and chaos across emerging markets.The simmering trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies fuelled global risk aversion while a brutal sell-off in the EM space rattled investor confidence.Fears remain elevated over the turmoil in Turkey and Argentina spreading like [...]

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    Naira threatened by external factors

Naira threatened by external factors

External influences may impact the Naira this week, with investors keeping a very close eye on any further - turmoil with emerging market currencies after a very troubled past couple of weeks.The Naira may take some guidance from how investors view emerging markets generally, with particular attention being paid towards how the Lira reacts to the latest Turkish GDP reading [...]

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    Naira stable as rand, peso tumble

Naira stable as rand, peso tumble

The Nigerian Naira maintained stability against the Dollar on Thursday despite growing expectations over higher US interest rates this year.It is becoming clear that that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s repeated intervention in the FX market has resulted in a stable Naira exchange. Although this method could continue supporting the local currency, Nigeria’s external reserves may come under pressure.Sentiment towards [...]

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    ANALYSIS: Nigeria’s GDP drop, dollar bulls MIA as gold prices peak

ANALYSIS: Nigeria’s GDP drop, dollar bulls MIA as gold prices peak

Confidence over the health of the largest economy in Africa was dealt a blow after economic growth decelerated in the second quarter of 2018.Nigeria’s GDP disappointed in Q2 by slowing to 1.5% from the 1.95% achieved in the first quarter of 2018. Although growth during the second quarter was mainly driven by the services sector and higher than when compared [...]

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    Naira steady, dollar slips while gold gains slightly

Naira steady, dollar slips while gold gains slightly

The Nigerian Naira continued to witness stability against a weaker Dollar during Tuesday’s trading session.Although the local currency could remain buoyed by repeated central bank intervention, external risks in the form of global trade tensions could create headwinds down the road. With speculation of higher U.S interest rates also boosting the Dollar and accelerating capital outflows from emerging markets, this is certainly [...]

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    Nigeria inches closer to rate cut as outlook improves

Nigeria inches closer to rate cut as outlook improves

July was another encouraging trading month for the Nigerian economy, thanks to the stabilizing macroeconomic environment.Annual inflation eased for the seventeenth consecutive month, while positive core economic metrics pointed to further signs of improving stability. Elevated global Oil prices have boosted government reviews and heavily supported foreign exchange markets. The overall outlook for Nigeria remains positive, especially when considering how [...]

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    Naira stable as CBN holds rates

Naira stable as CBN holds rates

It is interesting how the Naira has witnessed stability against the Dollar after the Nigerian Central Bank kept its monetary policy rate (MPR) unchanged at 14% in July.Signs of easing inflationary pressures in Nigeria present a solid argument for an interest rate cut. However, a rate cut could accelerate capital outflows, especially when considering how the Federal Reserve is expected [...]

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    Trade war escalation triggers risk aversion, but gold prices fall

Trade war escalation triggers risk aversion, but gold prices fall

A fresh wave of risk aversion swept across financial markets after the United States threatened to impose tariffs on an extra $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.This unfavourable move comes just days after the two countries slapped tit-for-tat tariffs on $34 billion worth of each other’s imports. With Beijing describing the latest tariff threats as “totally unacceptable” and vowing to [...]

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    Nigeria inflation declines further in May ECB in focus

Nigeria inflation declines further in May ECB in focus

In an encouraging development, Nigeria’s inflation has eased to 11.6% in May, the lowest level seen in more than two years.With consumer prices slowly edging closer to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s target band of 6%-9%, an interest rate cut seems likely before year-end.The combination of easing inflationary pressures, improving economic fundamentals and ongoing foreign exchange stability could [...]

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Exchange Rates

February 21, 2019USDGBPEUR
INTERBANK306397354
LAGOS362475413
KANO361474413
PH361475412
ABUJA362476413
NOTE: The black market rates represent the most prevalent. They could be slightly higher or lower among different sellers.
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