Friday, July 19, 2019

Lukman Otunuga

    Will Nigeria be able to float the Naira?

Will Nigeria be able to float the Naira?

The stabilizing economic conditions in Egypt almost three years after allowing its currency to float serves as a clear reminder to Nigeria that Egypt made the right decision.Today, when comparing the two nations side-by-side Egypt stands tall while Nigeria continues to nurse wounds inflicted from depreciating oil prices.While inflation in Egypt has slowed to single digits with growth projected to [...]

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    Will oil prices help or harm Nigeria’s economy in Q3?

Will oil prices help or harm Nigeria’s economy in Q3?

Global oil prices looked tired and ready for an early summer break during the second quarter of 2019 as global growth fears overshadowed supply disruptions and ongoing OPEC supply cuts.At the time of writing, oil prices remain shaky and vulnerable despite OPEC's latest decision to extend production cuts until March 2020.The crucial question is whether oil prices will ever recover [...]

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    Nigeria week ahead: US jobs report could affect naira

Nigeria week ahead: US jobs report could affect naira

It will be another busy week for financial markets as investors grapple with trade tensions, Brexit, depressed oil prices and concerns over slowing global growth. The week kicks off with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for May which is projected to hit 53.0. Appetite for the Dollar is likely to take another hit if the PMI figures fail to meet market [...]

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    Will Nigeria’s economy gather momentum during the second half of 2019?

Will Nigeria’s economy gather momentum during the second half of 2019?

The news that Nigeria’s economy cooled down to 2.05% in the first quarter of 2019 compared to 2.38% in Q4’18 has left investors wondering about the chances of growth gathering momentum during the second half of the year.On the one hand, it’s an encouraging sign we’ve seen the fastest first-quarter growth since 2015, driven mainly by the non-oil sector which [...]

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    ANALYSIS: Investors caught off-guard with CBN governor’s reappointment

ANALYSIS: Investors caught off-guard with CBN governor’s reappointment

Investors were caught completely off guard this week after Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari reappointed the CBN governor Godwin Emefiele for a second term.Although the market reaction has been somewhat mixed with the All-Share Index (ASI) edging -0.26% lower today, it is too early to come to any conclusions about how this will impact domestic markets moving forward.With the re-appointment of [...]

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    Will Nigeria listen to IMF’s call to remove fuel subsidy?

Will Nigeria listen to IMF’s call to remove fuel subsidy?

The IMF has once again called on Nigeria to phase out government fuel subsidies, citing better use of the funds on social safety nets like healthcare, education and freeing up fiscal resources for infrastructural projects.Historically, fuel subsidies are an extremely sensitive issue which can have various impacts on economic growth and investor confidence. Following the IMF’s recent report, the finance [...]

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    Nigeria PMI under the spotlight; US GDP in focus

Nigeria PMI under the spotlight; US GDP in focus

It has certainly been a painful trading week for emerging market currencies thanks to the combination of rising oil prices, a broadly stronger dollar and renewed concerns over slowing global growth.Major emerging market currencies like the South African Rand, Argentine Peso, Turkish Lira and South Korean Won among many others all felt the heat.With oil prices trading around elevated levels [...]

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    Nigerian economy set to gather momentum in Q2

Nigerian economy set to gather momentum in Q2

There are higher expectations for Nigeria’s economic recovery after the fastest growth since 2015 was recorded during the fourth quarter of last year.As the nation draws further away from the worst effects of the recession, several important economic benchmarks show further signs of improving economic stability.Yearly gross domestic product (GDP) for 2019 is heading steadily towards a range of 2–2.3 percent [...]

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    Nigeria waits for complete election results

Nigeria waits for complete election results

Whatever the outcome of Nigeria’s presidential election, it will certainly have an impact on investor sentiment.Foreign investors need to see Nigeria stepping up its efforts to diversifying away from oil dependence, while also boosting infrastructure spending across major sectors.If the correct strategy is implemented towards improving local macroeconomic conditions and shielding against external forces, Nigeria could move a step close [...]

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    Nigeria GDP on the radar ahead of presidential election

Nigeria GDP on the radar ahead of presidential election

It has been a positive trading week for the Nigerian stock market with the All-Share Index pushing higher despite US-China trade talks pessimism denting global risk sentiment.Local equity markets are seen pushing higher next week if Nigeria’s GDP growth for Q4 exceeds market expectations.Away from macro fundamentals, the presidential elections will be in sharp focus. Whatever the election outcome, [...]

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    CBN leaves rates unchanged as IMF downgrades growth

CBN leaves rates unchanged as IMF downgrades growth

In a widely expected move, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has left interest rates unchanged at 14% for January.Signs of rising inflationary pressures are likely to fuel speculation over the central bank tightening monetary policy, especially as government spending increases ahead of the presidential elections. With rising inflation in Nigeria seen threatening the Naira exchange and economic stability, the [...]

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    Naira buoyed by trade optimism and rebounding oil prices

Naira buoyed by trade optimism and rebounding oil prices

The Naira entered Tuesday’s trading session in a steady fashion amid optimism over US-China trade talks and rebounding oil prices.Although a majority of emerging market currencies were impacted by a stabilizing Dollar, the Naira stood out from the pack by holding gains of around 358N on the parallel exchange.With the Dollar seen weakening in the medium term on expectations over [...]

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    Nigeria ends 2018 on a cautious note — 2019 elections in focus

Nigeria ends 2018 on a cautious note — 2019 elections in focus

It has been another monumental year for the Nigerian economy which continued to display resilience against domestic and external headwinds.The healthy combination of easing inflationary pressures, foreign exchange stability and rising commodity prices initially stabilized Nigeria’s macro fundamentals. With domestic conditions clearly improving and foreign investor appetite increasing, expectations were elevated over the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) cutting interest [...]

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    Naira struggles to benefit from US-China trade truce

Naira struggles to benefit from US-China trade truce

Optimism over the temporary trade truce announced between the two largest economies in the world after the G-20 Summit in Argentina last weekend has played a leading role in uplifting global risk sentiment today.The combination of Dollar weakness and improving risk appetite is a welcome development for most major emerging market currencies. However, the Nigerian Naira has yet again struggled [...]

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    Falling oil prices weigh on Nigerian economy, G20 Summit in focus

Falling oil prices weigh on Nigerian economy, G20 Summit in focus

The recent depreciation in oil prices presents significant risks to oil export-dependent nations, with Nigeria falling into the category.Depressed oil prices will not only shave government revenues but also the nation’s ability to implement its 2019 budget which pegged oil prices at $60 per barrel. If the Central Bank of Nigeria finds itself in a difficult position to defend the [...]

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    Higher US interest rates burn through Nigeria’s reserves

Higher US interest rates burn through Nigeria’s reserves

Defending the Nigerian Naira against the mighty Dollar has come at a steep price to the central bank of Nigeria in the form of falling reserves.Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves have declined by roughly $2.1 billion in the last 30 days thanks to a broadly stronger Dollar and prospects of higher US interest rates.With the Fed expected to raise interest rates [...]

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Exchange Rates

July 12, 2019USDGBPEUR
INTERBANK306397354
LAGOS362475413
KANO361474413
PH361475412
ABUJA362476413
NOTE: The black market rates represent the most prevalent. They could be slightly higher or lower among different sellers.
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