Averting Nigeria-United States Conflict 

BY KINGSLEY DIKE  

“If the Nigerian Government continues to allow the Killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, ‘guns-a-blazing’, to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities”- President Donald Trump 

It was this post by the President of the United States (POTUS), Mr. Donald Trump, on Truth Social that set-off scramble and media frenzy in both Washington D.C., the United States of America capital and Abuja, Nigeria’s capital city. Most White House officials and even Aso Rock officials in Abuja did not know what to make of the statement. The officials in D.C. according to media reports could only say “At President Trump’s direction, the administration is planning options for possible action to stop the killing of Christians in Nigeria. Any other announcements will come from the President directly”. Trump’s statement was a rude awakening for Nigeria officials and Abuja was taken aback. Nigerian officials could only cite the two countries’ friendly relations and called for more cooperation between the United States and Nigeria to address Nigeria’s security challenge with Islamic terror groups. 

But in Nigerian metaverse and society there was huge outrage at President Trump’s choice of words, calling Nigeria “a disgraced country” and threatening the country with violence “may go into that now disgraced country ‘gun-a-blazing” was received with anger and collective sense of national umbrage for Mr. Trumps pattern of abuse and disrespect for Nigeria as a country. For many, it reminded them of Mr. Trump’s first term when he categorized Nigeria as a “shit hole” country in comments he made while trying to justify his ban of Nigerian visitors to the United States as part of his immigration crackdown. Nigerian people hold dear what many calls “Historic Transatlantic” connections between the United States and Nigeria and flays at Trump politics for negating those historical ties 

A large percentage of the black diaspora that is domiciled in the United States call Nigeria their ancestral homeland. Nigeria celebrates these ties bringing in American students, artiste, authors from the United States to promote the unique cultural ties. Before Beyonce, Ciara, Chris Brown and other American artiste that regularly visits, there was the celebration of “Harlem Renaissance” writers like Langston Hughes who was a special guest of Nigeria’s first President, Owelle Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe at Nigeria’s independence celebration in 1960. The legendary Zik of Africa was amongst the first group of Nigerians to school in the United States, earning a degree from Lincoln University, Pennsylvania, an historically black college (HBCU) in the 1930s. Today, there are more Nigerian students in American universities and institutions than anywhere else in the world as part of that history. African American leaders like Dr Martin Luther King Jr., Reverend Jesse Jackson, Ambassador Andrew Young are celebrated in Nigeria with roads and institutions named after them. As a former British colonial territory, the United Kingdom use to be the second home of most Nigerians, however the United States has since taken that title. Nigerian professionals such as doctors, nurses, engineers, actors, actresses, musicians, teachers, scientists and researchers are contributing with great results to almost every sector of the American life. 

But it is in economic relations that solidified United States-Nigeria ties. Nigeria has historically been a major supplier of petroleum products to the United States. Such iconic American brands like Chevron, ExxonMobil and Halliburton are active players in Nigeria’s oil sector. The total trade in goods and services between both countries has revolved around $15 billion annually. The United States exports cars, wheat, industrial supplies and capital goods, refined petroleum and gas to Nigeria while Nigeria exports crude petroleum and gas, cocoa beans, soybean and perfumes to the United States. In Nigeria, you will see American oil workers in American made trucks like the ford F-150 and Chevy Silverado 1500 in the evenings in many oil producing communities of the Niger Delta region Nigeria and many Americans who chose to return to Africa are living their lives peacefully in various communities in Nigeria. 

Thus, it is these great historical ties that that many are disappointed and genuinely worried that Mr. Trump want to destroy with his unique but abrasive language and “gung-ho” diplomacy. Now, with the almost nightly bombardment of alleged drug smuggling boats on Venezuelan waters, many are alarmed that Nigeria may be the next in Mr. Trump’s crosshairs. And to worsen the scenario for Nigeria, President Trump’s supportive conservative right has been campaigning for what they called an end to “Christian mass murder” in Nigeria. The Evangelical Christian right in the United States is fueling the narrative that there are systemic killings of Christians in Northern Nigeria and the Middle Belt that has reach genocidal proportions. This led to the Trump administration adding Nigeria to its Religious Watch lists. Nigerian government is denying that there is Christian genocide in the country, saying the Trump administration misconstrues the complex security challenges the country is facing in its fight against Boko Haram and other militant Islamic terror groups. Supporters of the Nigerian government agree that there are no killings of persons in Nigeria because of their faith or religion. They point out that the killings in North Central Nigeria especially in Plateau, Benue and Taraba states, where some of the deadliest attacks by Islamic terror groups against innocent civilians have occurred are not religious but fight over land and grazing rights. They agree that the aggressors happen to be Muslims, the cattle owners, and the victims, farmers who are mostly Christians. In the far North of Nigeria, particularly the Northeast and Northwest, the discovery of huge deposits of solid minerals like Lithium and gold is fuelling the killings by Islamic militants of innocent civilians who are fellow Muslims. 

But most Christians and citizens in the affected communities dismiss such claims as continuing attempts by the Nigerian governments and its supporters to befuddle the issue, confuse the international community and just hope that the President Trump’s threat will go away. They point to the many instances of just wanton killings, destruction of churches and arson of private property that have been going on in Plateau, Benue and Taraba states in plain sight for years and seeming inaction by the Nigerian government. 

I read some analysis by Nigeria’s respected senior diplomats, teachers and long-time practitioners in this business and really surprised their analysis, like most responses from Nigeria to the Trump challenge has been emotional, patriotic outburst that tend to follow official government position. But they are not rooted in facts and strategy. As A.E. Ekoko and M.A. Vogt alluded in their book, Nigerian Defence Policy, this is not surprising, “Nigeria did not have a tradition of thinking and operating in grand strategic terms. The evolution of grand strategic concepts for Nigeria was not an issue for local preoccupation, as the instruments and structures through which strategic and tactical doctrines would evolve were not developed”.  

If the United States attacks Nigeria, what we are talking about is aerial superiority. He who controls the skies wins the war. The United States has unmatched advantage in the skies; Nigeria’s artillery firepower cannot contain U.S aerial dominance. The country’s critical infrastructures can be crippled and command and control to include political leadership decapitated in about one day of sustained bombardment and missile attacks, we do not have any aerial capacity to touch even U.S. facilities in neighbouring Niger Republic. The U.S. has capacity to insert Special Forces personnel in any part of Nigeria without the country’s security system noticing. It has been done before. That means anybody can be abducted in seconds. Speed, shock and awe are the ingredients of modern warfare. You will not see any U.S. boots on the ground in Nigeria to engage.  

The situation is precarious for Nigeria. Even in present global military power comparison, while Nigeria is 31st (3rd in Africa only behind South Africa and Egypt) while the United States is first in the world. Nigeria has about 230,000 active-duty military personnel, the United States 1.3 million. The defence budget of the United States is around $886 billion while Nigeria defense budget is $3.1 billion. Thus, in almost all indices of power the United States have overwhelming advantage over Nigeria. That is why you don’t sign a nuclear nonproliferation treaty. But Nigeria have done that. It is only a nuclear deterrent that a country like Nigeria can use to deter the United States. Nigeria must start serious investment in its research and development capacity and set a reasonable target where the country cannot be a walk-over like this. But right now, given what the country has, saber rattling is not an option. It is diplomacy and commitment to address the insecurity situation in our country. Nigeria must immediately make some force projection that will take down Islamic militants and Fulani herdsmen and terrorists. Seal Nigerian borders and prevent bad actors from coming in in droves and causing mayhem in our local communities. 

Kingsley Dike is a former foreign affairs reporter with The Guardian Newspapers, Lagos, and retired intelligence analyst with the United States Army. He wrote from Atlanta, Georgia, US.