IMF upgrades Nigeria’s economic growth rate forecast to 3.9%, cites increased crude production

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reviewed its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth rate to 3.9 percent in 2025.

The projection is an upgrade from the IMF’s initial estimate of 3 percent, according to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) unveiled at the annual meetings in Washington, D.C, on Tuesday.

IMF also projected that Nigeria’s economic growth will further rise to 4.2 percent in 2026.

Speaking at a news conference in Washington DC, Deniz Igan, IMF’s division chief, research department, said the revised outlook for 2025 reflects reduced uncertainty and the limited impact of United States’ tariffs on Nigeria, given the country’s limited exposure.

Igan also cited the appreciation of the exchange rate since July and rising investor confidence as contributing factors.

“And since July, we also had the exchange rate appreciating, financial conditions strengthening with the increase in investment confidence,” she said.

“And on top of that, we also have fiscal stance remaining supportive, and hydrocarbon growth was also revised up with higher oil production on increased security.”

IMF’s projection is lower than the federal government’s forecasted growth rate of 4.6 percent for 2025 and 4.4 percent for 2026.

Also, the IMF had earlier projected that the global economic growth will rise by 3.2 percent this year, with a slight slowdown to 3.1 percent expected in 2026.