TheCable

Hopefully, by Monday all political parties must have conducted their primaries. So far, we have seen some shocks and emerging new trends.

While some delegates are smiling to the bank and plan on marrying new wives, some politicians have been taught a bitter lesson in politics and are counting their losses.

I read of a story of an aspirant who used hunters and vigilantes to recover his money from delegates. He knows if he uses the police it will cost an arm and leg for them to carry out the operation. The smart man went the local route and got results.

Again, giving delegates lots of money is not a guarantee that you will win the primaries. A combination of money and influence does the magic.

I think one of the major lessons we have learned from these primaries is that strong followership on social media is not a guarantee of success either in the primaries or the main election. Millions of followers on Twitter do not translate to millions of followers in your constituency. The maxim that politics is local is indeed apt in this scenario.

One thing I also noticed in this primaries is that children of popular politicians are gradually taking over the baton from their parents. Their fathers ruled us, now their kids want to rule us and our children again. Children of James Ibori, Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, the late Abiola Ajimobi, and others clinched their party’s tickets. This is a subtle change of baton.

We also noticed how outgoing governors’ anointed candidates picked the tickets of the parties. So far I have not seen any upset in that regard.

The big one is the presidential primaries this weekend. Former Anambra state governor, Peter Obi, resigned from the Peoples Democratic Party. He noticed at this rate, he stood no chance of clinching the party’s ticket or the vice-presidential slot, so the best thing was for him to leave the party. No doubt, Peter Obi is arguably one of the favourite presidential hopefuls on social media. Like I said earlier, social media popularity doesn’t translate to electoral success.

Sadly, most of his fans on social media are toxic and don’t accept any contrary opinion. Their toxicity and mob mentality are making Peter Obi lose followership.

Again, his resignation from the PDP will put a serious dent in the popularity of the party in the south-east. Going by reports, the senate minority leader, Enyinnaya Abaribe, and former deputy senate president, Ike Ekweremadu, may be on their way out of the PDP. Since 1999, the people of the south-east have pledged their loyalty to the PDP. Most of their politicians in the All Progressives Congress (APC) are branded as outcasts. These may be the beginning of the end of their support for the PDP.

The APC will hold its presidential primaries this weekend and most of the aspirants are hoping to get the endorsement of President Muhammadu Buhari. They are all waiting to see the body language of the president but so far, mum is the word from him. Many of them have gone into town claiming to be the anointed candidate of the president. The president had given his blessing to all the aspirants in the party. Some of them are hoping for a last-minute consensus arrangement similar to what the president did for the APC chairmanship position. This is a different ball game altogether. A consensus arrangement in the presidential primaries will spell doom for the party.

As popular as the president was in 2015, he still contested the APC primaries with four other aspirants. That is democracy.

No doubt, forcing a consensus arrangement on the party will lead to an implosion. Some of the aspirants will not defect but will work against the party. The best bet is for all of them to contest the primaries and let the best man emerge. The election should be seen as free, fair, and credible.

The good thing about the electoral timetable is that there is enough time for campaigns. In the past, primary elections are held in November and December and the candidates have just two to three months to campaign. In this case, they have nine months to campaign and woo voters. This is the best opportunity for a third force to emerge. If all the other parties come together and present a formidable candidate, they stand a good chance of causing an upset.