EXPLAINER: How Nigeria can qualify for 2026 World Cup on final day

The final day of the qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup inches closer with a little hint of hope for Nigeria. A month ago, the Super Eagles’ chances of qualifying for the World Cup seemed squandered after another disappointing away draw against South Africa in their eighth game of the qualification campaign. But a stroke of luck, a laughable administrative error from the South African FA and a favourable FIFA ruling turned Nigeria’s fortune around, a permission to dream — even if it is a little.

In September, FIFA sanctioned South Africa‘s Bafana Bafana for fielding an ineligible player in their qualifiers against Lesotho on 21 March 2025. The team was docked three points and three goals, and the decision threw Group C wide open, with Nigeria, the Benin Republic, and Rwanda all given a fair shot at finishing top of the group.

On Friday, the Super Eagles took the advantage and climbed closer to the target. Nigeria defeated Lesotho 2-1 at the Peter Mokaba Stadium in Polokwane, South Africa. Benin Republic gained the most significant leverage after a slim 1-0 victory over Rwanda sent them to the top of the group. South Africa had played out a goalless draw against Zimbabwe.

The result from the penultimate matchday increased the stakes for tension and drama on the final day of the qualifiers.

For the final day in Group C, Nigeria will host Benin, while South Africa will face Rwanda, and everyone’s chances of qualifying for the World Cup depend on the performances elsewhere.

GROUP C’S CURRENT STANDING

Benin Republic top the group with 17 points and a +5 goal difference. South Africa are second with 15 points and a +3 goal difference.

Nigeria remain third in the group with 14 points and a +3 goal difference. The remaining trio of Rwanda, Lesotho and Zimbabwe are mathematically out of the contest.

Benin – 17 pts +5
South Africa – 15 pts +3
Nigeria – 14 pts +3
Rwanda – 11 pts +0
Lesotho – 9 pts -3
Zimbabwe – 5 pts -6

HOW NIGERIA CAN GET AN AUTOMATIC WORLD CUP TICKET?

Regardless of Nigeria’s result in the final game against Benin, the Super Eagles need South Africa to either lose or draw at home against Rwanda to get an automatic ticket.

Should South Africa fail to beat Rwanda, then Nigeria need the following scenarios to secure an automatic ticket for the 2026 World Cup:

If Nigeria defeat Benin 1-0, the Super Eagles will finish top of the group on away goals. Nigeria scored in the 2-1 away defeat to the Squirrels.

If Nigeria defeat Benin 2-1, both teams will have identical records, and a tie-breaker, such as yellow cards or red cards, will be needed to determine the group winners.

If Nigeria defeat Benin 2-0, the Eagles will finish top of the group with a superior goal difference. The best result will be a convincing two-goal margin victory for Nigeria.

However, if Nigeria conceded more than one goal against Benin but still win, the Squirrels will qualify on away goals. Therefore, a 3-2, 4-3, or 5-4 victory will not secure Nigeria the automatic ticket.

PLAYOFF SPOTS OPTION

The Super Eagles must finish second in the group to have an opportunity to be one of the four best second-place teams to secure a playoff spot.

The withdrawal of Eritrea from the qualifiers might have handed Nigeria another lifeline. The calculation of points for the playoff spot would not be straightforward due to the withdrawal.

According to CAF, countries vying for playoff spots will have the results against the sixth-placed teams in their various groups subtracted from their total point accumulation.

Zimbabwe is likely to finish sixth in Group C, having earned only two points against them.