TheCable

On Monday, President Muhammadu Buhari commissioned the Dala inland dry Port in Kano state. 

In his address at the ceremony, Buhari said the average oil price from 1999 to 2019 was $100 a barrel. 

He added that the country’s oil production averaged 2.1 million bpd during the same period.   

“I would like you to recall. I want you to check – those who have been in doubt – in the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), between 1999 and 2019, the average production was 2.1 million barrels per day at an average cost of $100 per barrel,” he said. 

“So Nigeria was earning $100 times 2.1 million every day for those years.”

Furthermore, Buhari claimed that the revenue earned from oil was not used maximally to build roads and infrastructure during the period.

“But look at our infrastructure, the roads, some of them. Look at our power, we have a problem with power,” he said. 

“Which country can advance without infrastructure? But those who were in charge in those years were going around, not only in Nigeria but the world, giving the impression that they were wonderful. 

“But they can not explain this money. When we came, the militant in the south-south was unleashed on the government or on the country. 

“Production went down to half a million barrels and we were unlucky as the price of petroleum went down to $37 a barrel from $100.”

VERIFICATION 

From May 1999 to May 2015, Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Yar’adua and Goodluck Jonathan served as presidents of Nigeria on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). 

Buhari was elected president in May 2015 and his tenure will be over in May 2023. 

Data from Statista, a global data platform, showed that the price of Brent was at its lowest during the period under consideration in 1999 at $17.90 per barrel, during the administration of former President Obasanjo.

Within the period under review, the average price of crude oil reached its highest in 2012, at $111.63 per barrel, during the administration of former President Jonathan.

Nigerian crude oil is priced using Brent crude, an international oil price, as a benchmark.

An analysis of the data showed that between 2000 and 2001, oil prices dropped from $28.40 per barrel to $24.45 per barrel before rising to $25.01 per barrel in 2002.

From 2003, the average price of crude increased steadily till 2008 when the price hit $96.99.

The commodity’s yearly average price increased from $61.51 in 2009 to $79.47 in 2010, $111.26 in 2011, $111.63 in 2012, falling to $108.56 in 2013.

Between 2014 and 2019, the prices fluctuated. It was $98.97 in 2014, $52.32 in 2015, $43.67 in 2016, $54.25 in 2017, $71.34 in 2018 and $64.30 in 2019.

Contrary to Buhari’s claim that the average price of oil between 1999 and 2019 was $100 a barrel, the average price of the commodity was $62.33 a barrel during the period.

Between 1999 and 2014, before the current administration, oil prices averaged $63.95 a barrel. 

Meanwhile, the current administration (2015-2022) recorded an average oil price of $62.78 per barrel. 

The above breakdown clearly shows that oil sold above $100 for three years – 2011, 2012, and 2013, –  under the PDP. Therefore, it is false to say the average price between 1999 and 2014 or 1999 and 2019 is $100 per barrel.

DID NIGERIA’S OIL PRODUCTION AVERAGE 2.1 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY BETWEEN 1999 AND 2019? 

To verify Buhari’s claim, TheCable sourced data from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). 

The data can be accessed here, here and here. 

During the 20-year period, average crude oil production in the country, including condensates, ranged from 1.8 million barrels of oil per day to 2.5 million bpd. 

Between 1999 and 2019, Nigeria produced 18.7 billion barrels of oil, and the average oil production was 2.1 million bpd, as Buhari rightly claimed.  

However, during the administration of the Peoples Democratic Party, which lasted between  1999 to 2014, 13.32 billion barrels of oil were produced, representing an average production of 2.27 million bpd. 

Between 2015 – when Buhari’s administration commenced – and 2022, 5.33 billion barrels of oil have been produced, an average production rate of 1.82 million bpd. 

VERDICT

Buhari’s claim that average oil production was 2.1 million bpd in the 20-year PDP-led administration is true.

However, the claim that the oil price was $100/ barrel between 1999 and 2019 is false. The average price of the commodity was $62.33 a barrel during the period.