TheCable

There are now genuine fears of a copycat Islamic State being fully established in Nigeria, taking after the group that has now established a quasi-state on Iraqi territory.

Security experts fear that Maiduguri, the capital of Borno State, is seriously in danger of being captured by Boko Haram, in what would be the insurgents’ biggest statement of intent so far.

Bama, the second biggest town in Nigeria’s biggest state by land mass, fell to the militants on Monday ─ despite denials by the military authorities.

Maiduguri is less than an hour’s travel from Bama.

Foreign ministers of Nigeria, Benin, Cameroon, Chad and Niger held a one-day meeting on Wednesday to discuss the crisis, with officials from the US, Britain, France and Canada in attendance.

The African Union and UN were also fully involved in the meeting.

Fears were expressed behind closed doors that a Boko Haram-held Islamic State in northern Nigeria would destabilise not just the country but the rest of Africa.

For several months, Nigerian soldiers have been grumbling over several issues ─ lack of motivation, inadequate battle weapons, poor logistics and mass desertion by troops ─ but the military hierarchy either denied or termed those complaining as “fake”.

Journalists have also been accused of publishing false stories or exaggerating the situation on ground.

However, a series of events in the last few days tend to confirm most of the disputed reports.

Andrew Noakes, co-ordinator of the Nigeria Security Network of analysts, warned that the government was losing control of vast parts of the north-east, in a report published by The Guardian of London.

“Unless swift action is taken, Nigeria could be facing a rapid takeover of a large area of its territory reminiscent of Isis’s lightning advances in Iraq,” he said.

“If Borno falls to Boko Haram, parts of [neighbouring] Yobe and Adamawa [states] can be expected to follow. Parts of Cameroon along the border area would also probably be overrun.”

Abuja-based Daily Trust reported on Wednesday that seven emirs had fled their palaces in Borno and Yobe States as the insurgents gain more territory.

Thousands of Nigerians have also fled the villages, while young men are being conscripted into Boko Haram as fighters.

“From all indications, they now have a standing force of say 7,000 foot soldiers and they are well funded,” a security agent told TheCable.

According to him, “It is now glaring that the series of bombings that we witnessed during Ramadan period were designed to take attention away from their build-up towards a mass assault on the Nigerian state.”

The militants easily take over military and police barracks, almost without resistance most times, further fuelling fears that a large territory cutting across Yobe, Borno and Adamawa states is just a matter of time.

They are known to have not just ordinary weapons but armoured tanks ─ initially thought to have come in only from Libya after the fall of Muammar Ghaddafi.

Australian negotiator, Dr. Stephen Davis, who was in the militants’ camp for four months trying to secure the release of the kidnapped schoolgirls, recently told TheCable that Boko Haram is well organised.

“They have five major camps on the Nigerian border with Cameroon, Chad and Niger plus another major camp in the Sambisa forest and one on the border between Yobe and Borno States.

“When they attack a town, they empty the treasury of the banks. That is another source of funding for them. They are gradually depopulating many villages in the state, taking them over and foisting their flag. They are very well organised and becoming very good strategists.

“By the time they are done with the villages, they will have a very good base from where they will launch attacks on Maiduguri, with the aim of taking it over and proclaiming the caliphate that they desire,” he said.