The federal executive council (FEC) has approved the 2026-2028 medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF), outlining Nigeria’s economic outlook, revenue targets, and spending priorities for the next three years.
Atiku Bagudu, minister of budget and national planning, spoke to journalists after the council meeting on Wednesday, presided over by President Bola Tinubu.
The minister said the MTEF was jointly presented by the budget office of the federation and his ministry.
He said while the council set an oil production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day for 2026, the fiscal planning is based on a cautious 1.8 million bpd.
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Bagudu said the oil price was pegged at $64 per barrel, while the exchange rate assumption for the budget year is N1,512/$.
The minister said the exchange rate projection reflects the fact that 2026 precedes a general election year, adding that all the assumptions were drawn from detailed macroeconomic and fiscal analyses by the budget office and its partner agencies.
He added that inflation is projected to average 18 percent in 2026.
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Based on the assumptions, Bagudu said, the total revenue accruing to the federation in 2026 was estimated at N50.74 trillion, to be shared among the three tiers of government.
“From this projection, the federal government is expected to receive N22.6 trillion, states N16.3 trillion, and local governments N11.85 trillion,” he said.
“When revenues from all federal sources are consolidated, including N4.98 trillion from government-owned enterprises, total Federal Government revenue for 2026 is projected at N34.33 trillion —representing a N6.55 trillion or 16 percent decline compared to the 2025 budget estimate.”
The minister said statutory transfers are expected to amount to roughly N3 trillion, while debt servicing was projected at N10.91 trillion.
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He said non-debt recurrent spending — covering personnel costs and overheads — was put at N15.27 trillion, while the fiscal deficit for 2026 is estimated at N20.1 trillion, representing 3.61 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
NIGERIA TARGETS N690 TRILLION NOMINAL GDP IN 2026
The MTEF also projected that nominal GDP will reach over N690 trillion in 2026 and climb to N890.6 trillion by 2028, with the GDP growth rate projected at 4.6 percent in 2026.
The non-oil GDP is also expected to grow from N550.7 trillion in 2026 to N871.3 trillion in 2028, while oil GDP is estimated to rise from N557.4 trillion to N893.5 trillion over the same period.
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Bagudu said the president is confident that, with macroeconomic stability now taking root, sustaining the reforms and faithfully implementing the MTEF will set Nigeria on a stronger growth path over the next three years.
In addition, the FEC reviewed input from various ministers before approving the medium-term fiscal expenditure ceiling (MFTEC), a critical guideline designed to control government spending and promote fiscal discipline.
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