TheCable

We are now in a position that we truly deserve. When someone wakes up in the morning and guns for the presidency on a major platform of seeking reward for 30 years of political brinksmanship, this is what we get.

The arrogant cry of “Emi lokan” was premised on the fact that it was his turn and really not on any above-board vision for robust leadership, hence the bullying we saw to the presidency

Today, the economy is on a free fall, and we are witnessing the worse 90 days of any government in Nigeria.

Fuel is now N617, dollar now N800 — gaining N100 in one week and inflation crossing the 22% mark throwing in unprecedented food inflation, job loss and general economic chaos.

What Baba Emilokan has just done was to take a big stick, limp to the honeycomb, and in one swipe, hit it and release the bees who are in anger stinging us

What did we even expect when the electioneering campaign was fought over Chicago, an allegation of drugs, pedigree, ethnic rights to the presidency, and all that instead of major issues?

Releasing very aggressive spokesmen, the main issues were hardly discussed or queried.

The few times we dared to challenge his economic capacity, all we heard was — “I manufactured Lagos, gave them agbado, employ 50 million youths in the army, and I will not release my plans now and all sort”.

The removal of fuel subsidy in my mind’s eye was just a lame attempt to ride on a policy they thought was popular and rife.

I remember writing an article against it when it happened, and I was shouted down. I had said it should be phased. Nobody takes such an action in one fell swoop.

It should have been gradually removed. 20% the first six months, the price goes up, and you cushion it with meaningful palliative and macroeconomic reforms. After six months, you remove it again and continue with that circle.

Now, we have rushed to remove the thing without any concomitant form of defence against raging market forces and see where we are.

The supply side of the economy has not been touched by the agbado enthusiasts in the government.

How do we shore up forex inflow to defend the Naira and stabilise the prices, especially in an import-dependent country like this?

Instead, we are seeing a guguru attempt at palliatives- N8,000 per poor household. Thankfully this is being reviewed. Please, what can N8,000 buy? In some places, it can not even buy condoms

So a bag of rice is over N40,000 now. You save Tinubu’s N8,000 for months to get it, and by the time you are there, the price jumps up again.

The price of a bag of millet used for animal feed and also a meal for Nigerians in the north is now N60,000.

I think Tinibu should immediately put on his thinking cap and do the following very quickly.

1. Bring back a 20% subsidy to hold down fuel prices at these current states for at least six months. This is to allow for stability and a little bit of planning.
2. Move to shore up our crude revenues. We are now producing about 900,000 barrels down from the 1.3 million at the height of the militant problem in that region.
3. We have an OPEC quota of about 2 million. If we can hit 1.5 million, the pressure on the dollar will ease a little bit
4. The army, Navy, and DSS should be deployed into the Niger Delta. This is the new theatre of war. It is not all these Tompolo movies we are watching. We need a space-age military engagement complete with satellites and drones to protect the installations and curb oil theft. If we can not do it, let’s go beg the international community.
5. Cut very drastically the cost of governance. Akpabio being reported to have said that civil servants would soon have a salary increase is funny. They should be rationalised and streamlined. Throw in technology and give them soft landings to go into entrepreneurship instead of sitting down there and pushing dirty files.
6. The N70 billion allowance, as reported, shows the “madness” going on.
7. The cost of democracy should be cut by over 50%. Drop the aides from 40 to five and ministers by 20%.
8. Cut drastically foreign trips by the president except very strategic. This is a major drain on the economy.
9. Fiscal federalism should be entrenched immediately. Let every state start taking care of itself with the principle of comparative advantage being the vogue.

This administration started very strongly in its first weeks and started unravelling very quickly with its reaction to the economy and with the names being bandied to be in the cabinet.

My investigations show that if we are not careful, we may hit N1,000 per litre by September when existing contracts for fuel importation entered into by PPMC expires and at that time, we would be looking at major economic upheavals

What this administration will not want is to have general unrest on the back of these prices during the period the presidential elections tribunal is giving their judgment.

No country allows for total deregulation of these things. You can not float an already weakened Naira and raise your hands in the air and say, “I am not there”.

Did we honestly think that Emefiele’s would suddenly bring sanity to the markets?

Tinubu, I think, just sees this whole thing like one big campaign carnival where you negotiate, cajole, and entice people into a position.

You can not do this when you have tied your markets to international markets. The templates can not be manipulated. You must come to the table with value.

The question now is, how do we immediately shore up the supply side of the economy, how do we defend the Naira in order to tame galloping inflation and how do we hold down fuel prices which are central to economic growth?

The answers to these questions are very easy if only there is enough political will and a clear understanding of the issues at the level of presidential authority.

We need credible and precise engagement and not this hullabaloo that we are seeing.

Kai.