FILE: All PUs where election will hold in Kogi
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) fixed December 5 for the supplementary election of Kogi state, after declaring the November 21 election inconclusive, seeing that the margin of votes between the two leading contenders was less than the number of cancelled votes.
The late Abubakar Audu, who was the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), polled 240,861 votes, while his key opponent, Idris Wada, candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), secured 199,514 votes.
The margin between the two results was 41,353, while the total number of cancelled votes was 49,953.
Declaring the poll as inconclusive, Emmanuel Kucha, the returning officer, had explained that the cancellations were as a result of ballot box snatching, destruction of voting materials and harassment of INEC officials as well as over voting.
The additional election will hold across 91 polling units in 18 local government areas. The local governments and the polling units where the supplementary election will take place have been highlighted in the table below.
The number of registered voters and cancelled votes were also listed.
| AFFECTED LGAs | TOTAL REGISTERED VOTERS | CANCELLED VOTES | NUMBER OF AFFECTED POLLING UNIT(S) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adavi | 85,127 | 2,134 | 5 |
| Ajaokuta | 52,411 | 1,406 | 3 |
| Ankpa | 119,556 | 6,021 | 9 |
| Bassa | 51,526 | 742 | 2 |
| Dekina | 141,963 | 17,454 | 29 |
| Ibaji | 66,563 | 2,665 | 6 |
| Idah | 48,762 | 310 | 1 |
| Igalamela/Odolu | 54,266 | 1,501 | 3 |
| Ijumu | 46,819 | 705 | 1 |
| Kabba Bunu | 60,522 | 1,767 | 4 |
| Koto Karfe | 45,817 | 1,689 | 2 |
| Lokoja | 114,139 | 2,854 | 5 |
| Ofu | 76,936 | 2,854 | 8 |
| Okehi | —- | 403 | 1 |
| Okenne | 117,132 | 676 | 1 |
| Olamaboro | 71,756 | 2,046 | 4 |
| Omala | 53,510 | 2,526 | 6 |
| Yagba West | 35,966 | 375 | 1 |
| Total | 49,953 | 91 |
VOTING PATTERN IN AFFECTED AREAS
Of the 18 local government areas affected, APC’s Audu won in 15, while Idris Wada took the lead in Dekina, his own local government, Okenne and Omala. If the same pattern is maintained on December 5, APC is expected to retain its lead.
Going by the records of the substantive poll, less than 25,000 people are likely to partake in the forthcoming election.
In the previous exercise, voters who finally cast their ballot, were less than half of those originally registered for the election.
For instance, while 52,441 people registered to vote in Ajaokuta local government, only 17,466 eventually turned out for accreditation, with an even lesser number voting in the end.
In Dekina, registered voters stood at 141,963, while those accredited to vote were 52,344.
The same trend was evident in Ofu, Audu’s local government, where 76,936 registered to vote and less than half, 32, 311, took part in the exercise.
IMPLICATIONS AND EXPECTED OUTCOME
For the incumbent governor to emerge winner of the election, he needs at least 45,653 fresh votes. His party would need to cover up the APC’s margin of lead of 41,353, and get more than half of the 8,600 leftovers.
On the other hand, the APC needs 4,301 votes to govern Kogi for the next four years but with politics full of surprises, any of the highlighted scenarios is capable of playing out.
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