How the next Pope will be chosen — and the Nigerians who have a say

Following the death of Pope Francis on Easter Monday, the leading question among Catholics globally is: What next? Who will become the next pope? How will the next post be chosen? 

Based on the recent history of the Catholic Church, we can expect a new pope in approximately two to three weeks. After the death of a pope, the Vatican declares a period of mourning, which typically lasts nine days.

Once the mourning is concluded, a college of cardinals meets in the Vatican to decide the new pope. In 2013, however, Pope Benedict XVI became the first pope to resign in almost 600 years. In this rare case, a period of mourning was not declared; however, it took 12 days for the conclave to meet and decide on the new pope.

A breakdown of the time between the death (or resignation) of the previous pope and the election of the new one.

How the new pope is elected

When the Pope passes or resigns, a college of cardinals meets at the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican to elect the new pope. There are more than 250 cardinals who make up this college — but only about 138 of them can vote on who becomes the new pope.

These 138 men are cardinals who are under 80 years old. The rest are over 80 and cannot vote in the closed elections.

After the period of mourning, these cardinals will travel to the Vatican to vote in an election that typically takes 24 to 48 hours. In 1831, this event lasted as long as 50 days, whereas modern elections are generally shorter.

Who can become the next Pope?

By the letters, any male member of the Catholic Church who has been baptised can become the new pope.

However, in practice, the new pope always comes from within the College of Cardinals — the 138 cardinals under the age of 80. Historically, there have been 266 popes, and 82 percent of them — representing 217 — have been from Italy.

Of these 138, a majority — more than 50 — are from Europe, about 24 are from Asia, and 18 are from Africa. The countries with the most electors are Italy (17), the United States (10), Brazil (7) and France (5).

Nigeria has only one elector and three non-elector cardinals.

The Nigerians who have a say

The only Nigerian elector is Peter Okpaleke, the Catholic Bishop of Ekwulobia, Anambra state, who was appointed a cardinal by the Late Pope Francis in 2022.

Other cardinals from the country include Francis Arinze (92), John Onaiyekan(81), and Anthony Olubunmi Okogie (88).  They all can participate in the debate for the next pope, but do not have a vote when the secret ballots are cast later this month or early in May.

Who are the frontrunners to be the next pope?

Before the death of Pope Francis and more recently after his death, a few names have been making the round on who the next pope could be. In practice, it could be any of the 130+ men who make up the electors, but a frontrunner seems to exist from every voting bloc.

In Africa, the leading candidate is Peter Kodwo Appia Turkson, who came up as one of the favourites for the 2013 conclave that saw Pope Francis become the elected leader of the Catholic Church. Turkson is on course to become the first black pope.

For Asia, the leading candidate is Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines; he has a strong stance against abortion and has criticised the church for using harsh words against the LGBTQ community. He referred to the Church’s stance towards gay people, single mothers, and divorcees as “severe”. He could be the first Asian Pope in human history.

Pietro Parolin, an Italian cardinal, who currently serves as the Vatican’s secretary of state is also a favourite to be pope.