How to defeat Tinubu in 2027

BY OLU ALLEN

The 2027 elections are closing in, and in Abuja, a dangerous myth spreads: that Bola Tinubu’s grip is ironclad, the people cowed, the outcome predetermined. But power built on propaganda and patronage is a fragile empire. It can—and must—be toppled to reclaim Nigeria’s future.

Dethroning a Nigerian president is a brutal chess match. Tinubu is no amateur. He’s a grandmaster of elite deals, weaving loyalty from desperation. Yet even grandmasters fall when their opponents stop playing fair and start playing to win.

We don’t need miracles to defeat Tinubu. We need a war plan—cold, calculated, and relentless.

Obi: The Blade Forged for All Nigeria

Peter Obi remains the opposition’s sharpest weapon. His credibility shines, his youth base is unmatched, and his energy is infectious. But 2023 taught us a hard truth: charisma alone doesn’t win elections. Obi must now be the tip of a spear, honed by a coalition that bridges Nigeria’s divides.

This coalition must unite the Labour Party’s moral fire, the PDP’s northern network, and disillusioned former APC governors into a single, unyielding force. To win the north, Obi needs a running mate who commands respect in Kano and Sokoto—a northern Muslim like Nasir el-Rufai for technocratic appeal or Rabiu Kwankwaso for populist clout. This isn’t just balance; it’s a signal that the coalition speaks for every Nigerian.

The coalition must be forged with ironclad pacts, not flimsy handshakes. Signed agreements, public loyalty pledges, and campaign funds held in escrow will deter betrayal. Neutral arbiters—respected figures like the Nigerian Bar Association or elder statesmen like Olusegun Obasanjo—must enforce discipline. This ark must be a fortress, not a sieve.

Atiku: Kingmaker or Footnote

Atiku Abubakar’s five presidential bids have built a formidable northern base, deep pockets, and a grassroots machine. But 2027 isn’t another try—it’s his final test. He faces a stark choice: kingmaker or spoiler?

Offer him dignity: a senate presidency or a pivotal role in shaping the new government. But make it clear that relevance demands sacrifice. If he backs Obi and the coalition with full force, history will hail him as the elder who lifted Nigeria. If he fractures the opposition, he’ll fade into Tinubu’s shadow—a footnote in a second term. Should Atiku resist, younger northern voices like Bala Mohammed or Sanusi Lamido Sanusi must be ready to rally the north, ensuring its buy-in.

The Ark: Build It Now—or Drown

Nigeria’s parties are hollow shells. PDP is a Tinubu pawn, bled dry by self-serving factions. Labour is splintered. The answer isn’t to patch these relics but to forge a mega third force—a coalition that unites Nigeria’s regions and rejects elite games.

With June 2025 upon us, the coalition must launch by December 2025. Waiting until 2026 hands Tinubu the game.

Its structure must be surgical:

• 10,000 field operatives. Recruit from rural market associations, okada unions, and interfaith networks to ensure grassroots reach across Nigeria’s wards.
• Dual campaign streams. Fund digital campaigns with diaspora crypto donations—untraceable, unfreezable—while flooding rural airwaves with Hausa, Yoruba, and Igbo radio jingles, WhatsApp blasts for urban youth, and community theatre for villages. Nigeria’s internet gaps demand both high-tech and low-tech warfare.
• Zero tolerance for betrayal: Expel double-dealers instantly. Public pledges and shared financial stakes (e.g., escrow-held funds) will lock in loyalty, with civil society monitors ensuring accountability.

Tinubu’s Endgame—and How to Break It

Tinubu is already plotting for 2027. His weapons are subtle but deadly:

• Starvation economics: Selective budget releases and palliatives to buy silence, though 2025 reports show rural distribution stalling amid inflation.
• Compromised infrastructure: BVAS vulnerabilities persist, with whispers of manipulation risks in states like Kogi and Rivers.
• Strategic defections: South-south governors and PDP’s Nyesom Wike are firmly in Tinubu’s orbit.
• Wike’s sabotage: Acting as a Trojan horse, undermining PDP from within while controlling Rivers state’s political machinery.

But Tinubu’s strength is his Achilles’ heel—he adapts, but he overreaches. Expect him to counter rural campaigns with last-minute road projects or co-opt religious leaders to blunt grassroots efforts. Pre-empt him:

• Deploy 50,000 polling agents: Train them by June 2026 to monitor every polling unit, especially in swing states like Benue and Plateau.
• Partner with interfaith networks: Engage the Catholic Church, JNI, and CAN for parallel vote counts to ensure neutrality and credibility, avoiding perceptions of Christian bias.
• Leak his playbook: Expose rigging plans through whistleblowers or defected APC insiders by early 2026, eroding trust in his machine.
• Targeted messaging: Launch a rural campaign by March 2026 with a single, piercing message—“Tinubu stole your fertiliser, your future”—delivered via radio, town criers, TikTok, and WhatsApp to capture both rural elders and urban youth.

Neutralise Wike by backing his rivals in PDP, like Seyi Makinde’s faction, and pursuing legal challenges to his proxies’ influence. A weakened Wike weakens Tinubu’s south-south flanks.

Every week that passes strengthens Tinubu’s hand. June 2025 is the starting gun—move now, or lose.

If We Fail?

A second Tinubu term won’t just extend his rule—it will entrench a corporate dictatorship. Opposition parties will become hollow names, civil society will shrink, and Nigeria will slide into “President & Sons Unlimited.” The 2027 election isn’t a contest—it’s the last stand for a democratic Nigeria.

Final Word

Tinubu doesn’t fear Obi’s saintliness or Atiku’s ambition. He fears 10,000 market women in Kano spitting on APC’s stipends. He fears a leaked memo exposing BVAS tampering. He fears betrayal from his inner circle—governors, aides, even Wike.

This isn’t about a cleaner campaign. It’s about a smarter insurgency—political, strategic, civic. It’s about building an ark that carries Nigeria’s hope across regional, religious, and generational divides. The time to launch is now. Build it, and we rise. Delay, and we drown.

Olu Allen is a writer and educator who resides in Kano. He writes on African strategy, power politics, and democratic disruption.