IMF says global debt-to-GDP could exceed 100% by 2029

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says global debt could exceed 100 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2029.

In its latest ‘Fiscal Monitor’ report, launched at the ongoing 2025 IMF/World Bank annual meetings on Wednesday in Washington DC, the fund said global public debt is set to reach its highest level since 1948.

“The global public debt is projected to rise above 100 percent of GDP by 2029. In such a scenario, public debt would be at its highest level since 1948,” the report reads.

“This reflects a higher and steeper path than projected before the pandemic. In addition, the distribution of risks is wide and tilted toward debt accumulating even faster.”

With a 5 percent risk scenario, the institution projected that global debt could rise to 124 percent of GDP by 2029.

The IMF noted that the public debt landscape varies significantly across countries, with wide differences in deficit and debt levels.

“Many major economies have public debt greater than (or projected to go over) 100 percent of GDP,” the institution said.

“Although the number of countries with debt above 100 percent will be steadily declining in the next five years, their share in world GDP is projected to rise.

“Among the Group of Twenty, these are Canada, China, France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.”

According to the IMF, these countries generally possess deep and liquid sovereign bond markets and enjoy a wider range of policy options, which keeps their fiscal risk at a moderate level.

In contrast, the Bretton Woods institution noted that many emerging markets and low-income countries face more severe fiscal challenges, despite maintaining relatively low debt levels.

“The number of countries with public debt below 60 percent of GDP increased to more than 100 in 2021 and is projected to continue to increase, although their GDP share in the world represents less than 30 percent,” the report reads.

“Their policy options and funding access are limited. Fifty-five countries are experiencing debt distress or are at high risk of distress despite their debt ratios often below 60 percent of GDP.

“When countries falter on debt, timely debt restructuring is critical to containing the damage.”

The IMF said it is working on strengthening the debt architecture, including through the “Common Framework and the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable”.

Also, the fund projected that Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio will decrease from 36.4 percent in 2025 to 35 percent in 2026, before increasing to 35.3 percent in 2027.