‘Inflation easing, GDP rising’ — Rewane says Nigeria’s economic recovery is real

Bismarck Rewane, the chief executive officer (CEO) of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) Limited, says Nigeria’s economic recovery is real and sustainable.

Rewane spoke while presenting a paper at the Lagos Business School (LBS) breakfast session, titled ‘Reality Check: Is Nigeria’s Economic Recovery Authentic? Yes, It Is’.

He described economic recovery as the phase in the economic cycle when growth resumes after a period of contraction or downturn.

According to the economist, Nigeria’s current recovery is characterised by improvements in key indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation stabilisation, employment rate, as well as increased business and consumer confidence.

He compared the latest economic data with figures from the previous year, noting that the pump price of petrol, which rose sharply after subsidy removal, has moderated from N985 per litre in September 2024 to N841 in October 2025.

He said the foreign exchange (FX) rate, which was around N1,900 per dollar in February 2024, has appreciated to N1,488 in October 2025 following the FX market liberalisation.

The CEO also said inflation, which peaked at 34 percent in December 2024, has eased to 20.12 percent as of August 2025, while real GDP growth has strengthened from 3.48 percent in the second quarter (Q2) of 2024 to 4.23 percent in Q2 2025.

“Following periods of economic contraction or downturns, Nigeria’s economy often stabilises slowly at the bottom,” Rewane said.

“In some cases, the recovery is aborted while in others, it gradually resumes a path of long-term growth.”

Rewane said the ongoing recovery is “close to dynamic equilibrium”, with stabilising economic variables, rising investor and consumer confidence, and GDP growth reaching a four-year high of 4.23 percent.

The economist said the FX rate misalignment has also changed, with the gap between the parallel and official windows narrowing to N24.

“Unlike past recoveries, this recovery is different. It is not just about growth; some fundamentals are changing,” he said.

However, Rewane warned of several potential risks and pitfalls that could threaten progress.

These, he said, include a sharp decline in global oil prices to $60 per barrel, foreign portfolio investment reversals, price distortions, and power sector deficits.

‘RISING COST OF GOVERNANCE BARRIER TO INVESTMENT’

The FDC chief also identified Nigeria’s rising cost of governance as a major obstacle to investment and capital accumulation.

Rewane said while the cost of governance under military rule in 1998 was N27.7 billion, it has increased to N54.99 trillion in 2025.

“For the recovery to be sustainable there is an urgent need to reduce the cost of governance,” he said.

The CEO also recommended targeted reforms, including power sector debt forbearance, incentives for domestic investments, and improved tax collection under the new tax laws.

He called for the concessioning of airports and seaports as well as the sale of government-owned refineries.