Insecurity and plenty conspiracy theories

At the dawn of the new democratic order in 1999, Channels TV did a vox pop asking Nigerians their expectations from the incoming Olusegun Obasanjo administration. One market woman said: “I want Obasanjo to bring the economy down!” You can laugh all you want, but she knew what she was saying — even though her diction was unsophisticated. To her, the “economy” meant “prices of goods and services”. Things were expensive and she wanted them to become affordable. What she meant, effectively, was for Obasanjo to bring down the “prices of goods and services”. She must have been disappointed as prices kept going up. And 26 years after, prices are still heading for the skies.

In my previous article, ‘Where Nnamdi Kanu Missed a Trick’, I suggested that the majority of Nigerians — Muslims, Christians, northerners, southerners — are more concerned about food, shelter, clothing, jobs, roads, healthcare and security than balkanisation and secession by stealth. Do not take my word for it: randomly stop Nigerians on the streets and ask them the things that are dear to their hearts. I bet those are the items you are most likely to find on their lists. I do this all the time. I talk to security guards, taxi drivers, okada riders, food vendors, bricklayers, and carpenters, among others. Actually, sampling the opinions of everyday Nigerians is a hobby for me. I learn a lot from it.

On the other hand, you have the powerful opinion leaders and political elite who have a different agenda and set a different tone for public discourse. They saturate the airwaves with their toxic agenda, mainly because they have the platform, the capacity and the incentive to push their scheme even to the uttermost parts of the earth. They are all over the media, both traditional and social, promoting their divisive agenda with half-truths and outright lies, preying on the innocence and ignorance of their fans and followers. Ordinary Nigerians are the victims of the manipulation. Much damage is being done to our nationhood and I often wonder if we can ever recover from the malady.

Meanwhile, I recently got into an interesting discussion with an Uber driver. I had asked him his thoughts on the insecurity plaguing the nation and he swore that the heightened kidnappings and attacks were stage-managed to discredit the government so that US President Donald Trump could help unseat President Bola Tinubu. As with conspiracy theorists, there are facts and questions they work with. The driver asked: why are suddenly fresh attacks on churches and a Christian school by the bandits? He alleged that they were orchestrated to prove that there is Christian persecution in Nigeria and that Trump should invade the country “guns-a-blazing” as he had threatened weeks ago.

I told him there are so many conspiracy theories in town that I myself do not know what to believe any longer. One theory says the entire insecurity situation is the handiwork of the government itself, to siphon funds under the subhead of “security”. Another one says the military hierarchy is making too much blood money from the insecurity and will not want it to end anytime soon. Another says some politicians are desperate for power in 2027 and want to make the country ungovernable “like they did to President Goodluck Jonathan” so that they can win the next elections. It seems to me that every Nigerian has a theory on the matter. Some theories sound frolicsome but it is what it is.

Aside from the theories on the streets and inside the Ubers, there have been claims by government officials that cannot be waved aside just like that. Governor Nasir Idris of Kebbi state, speaking on the abduction of 25 students of Government Girls’ Comprehensive Secondary School, Maga, said openly that the military was informed of the impending attack but troops were withdrawn just before the bandits struck. He said soldiers left the school around 3am and the bandits struck 45 minutes later. “We provided intelligence reports. We alerted them. So, who gave the order for troops to withdraw at that critical hour?” Idris said. The military has not responded to this allegation, except I missed it.

Senator Idris Wase also alleged that Boko Haram members and other criminals were recruited into the armed forces. “Former (house) chairman of defence, and my very good friend, (Muktar Aliyu) Betara, will bear me witness that we had moments in time when, in the process of recruitment, Boko Haram were found on the army list,” Wase said on the floor of the national assembly, broadcast on TV. A few days later, he was countered by Gen Lucky Irabor, former chief of defence staff, who denied the allegation. “How could it be? Where people got that impression, I cannot tell,” he said. But should Wase be saying such on TV or sharing the information with the appropriate authorities?

The Uber driver’s question refreshed my memory. After the Chibok abductions of April 2014, theories were being peddled effortlessly by all sides. I recall asking a presidential aide what really happened and he told me: “Don’t mind (Kashim) Shettima (then-Borno governor, now vice-president). When he is tired of playing politics, he will bring those girls from where he is hiding them.” To him, the abductions were stage-managed to embarrass Jonathan. Theories were not one-sided though: there were those who said Jonathan unleashed insecurity on the north-east because it was an opposition stronghold. They said he didn’t want 2015 elections to hold there. It is what it is.

Admiral Murtala Nyako, as governor of Adamawa state, said something similar at a meeting between northern Muslim governors and Ms Susan Rice, then-US national security advisor, as well as other American officials at the White House on March 18, 2014. Nyako said Jonathan was behind Boko Haram, that his government was supplying arms to Boko Haram to perpetuate the conflict in the north in order to reduce their voting power ahead of his re-election bid. He did not back down despite facing impeachment proceedings obviously orchestrated from Abuja. There are those who believe the US played a key role in Jonathan’s ouster and are hoping history would repeat itself.

Indeed, Nyako even wrote a well-publicised letter to northern governors in 2014. He said: “Clearly the victims of the Administration’s evil-mindedness are substantially Northern Nigerians. The Administration is bent on bringing wars in the North between Muslims and Christians and within them and between one ethnic group and another or others in various communities in the region. Cases of mass murders by its bloody minded killers and cut-throats are well known, but it attributes the killings to so-called Boko-Haram.” He said young girls and boys had been kidnapped by “clearly organised militia in the last few years and kidnapping is now a random affair all over the far North”.

Nyako said these organised kidnappers “must have the backing of the Federal administration for them to move about freely with abducted children just as those who convey ammunition and explosives from the Ports to the safe-houses of so-called Boko Haram in the North”. He repeated the claims he made in the US that arms and ammunition were being supplied to Boko Haram by air. For all his efforts, though, Nyako was impeached. But his conspiracy theory outlasted him. Also, along the line, Gen Muhammadu Buhari was alleged to be the brain behind Boko Haram. They said he was a religious fanatic who was trying to use the terrorists to chase Jonathan out of power in 2015.

Lt Gen Azubuike Ihejirika, as chief of army staff from 2010 to 2014, was at a time accused of being the brain behind Boko Haram. They said he was the one supplying them with arms and ammunition because as an Igbo, he had an unfinished business: to destroy northern Nigeria in revenge for the civil war of 1967-70. Ihejirika, who was the first Igbo since 1966 to attain the position of army chief, had to head for the courts to defend his name as the allegations became a staple for the Nigerian media. It must have been a very harrowing experience for him — a general being accused of waging war against his own country. Sometimes, it is difficult to make sense of these theories. It is what it is.

In 2020, the late Dr Obadiah Mailafia, a former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and a Christian from southern Kaduna, said that a northern governor was the commander of Boko Haram. He did not name the governor. “We have met with some of their high commanders, they have sat down with us not once, not twice,” he said in a viral interview. “They told us that one of the northern governors is the commander of Boko Haram in Nigeria. Boko Haram and the bandits are one and the same. During this lockdown, their planes were moving up and down as if there was no lockdown.” Mailafia was invited by the DSS to substantiate his claims. He couldn’t but he apologised.

Conspiracy theories could be damaging, distractive and destructive, yet my core argument remains that it is the job of the government to secure Nigeria, whether or not these allegations are true. If there is sabotage, squash it. If there is corruption, crush it. If it is politics, puncture it. However, we must know that conspiracy theories and conjectures are not harmless. I will say our failure to reason together and unite against these common enemies is one of the reasons why insecurity festered and reached this frightening level. Still, the government must do its job diligently. Nigerians deserve to sleep and snore with eyes closed. Like the market woman, I want Tinubu to bring insecurity down.

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

WAITING FOR OBI

All eyes are now on Mr Peter Obi on his next political move. While the major politicians behind the African Democratic Congress (ADC) have officially joined the party, the former presidential candidate of the Labour Party is not eager to get on board despite repeatedly giving assurances. “We can’t just say, ‘Oh, we don’t like what these people are doing. Let them go.’ If they go, what is the alternative? We’ve done that in 2015: ‘Let this man just go,’ and he went. So, we now have to be clear. What are we getting?” he asked rhetorically, maintaining he is not desperate to be president. But does that mean he can agree to be running mate to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the likely ADC candidate? Intriguing.

DEFENCE TO ATTACK

Less than six weeks after he was retired as the chief of defence staff (CDS), Gen Chris Musa has been appointed minister of defence by President Bola Tinubu. I was genuinely confused, to be frank. We thought his retirement and the appointment of new service chiefs was in reaction to the growing insecurity in the land and that the president was about to breathe a new life into securing the nation. But I am now being told by those who should know that Musa had a lot of “brilliant ideas” as CDS but he could not implement because of the political hierarchy. I’m told he will now have all the political power and authority he needs to chart a policy direction for the security sector. Amen.

LISTLESS LIST

Pardon me if I am sounding cynical, but this must be one of the most underwhelming ambassadorial lists I have seen in my life. In the first place, it is such a big shame that we went for two years without appointing substantive ambassadors and high commissioners — whatever reason we might have. It is not done. It does not show a country that is serious about its place in the international community and global affairs. Something is definitely wrong with our understanding of priorities in the modern world. And when the ambassadorial list finally came out, I could not believe my eyes when I saw the names of some of the nominees. This is what happens when politics is priority in all things. Disgrace.

NO COMMENT

The crisis in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is far from over: the combatants have been busy expelling one member or the other. The faction led by Mallam Kabiru Turaki has expelled Chief Nyesom Wike and his loyalists: Ayodele Fayose, Samuel Anyanwu, Umar Bature, Mao Ohuabunwa, and Dan Orbih, among five others. The Wike faction has, in kind, expelled Governors Dauda Lawal (Zamfara State), Bala Mohammed (Bauchi) and Seyi Makinde (Oyo), and the rest. But the Turaki faction is providing more entertainment with the issuance of “expulsion certificates” to Wike and co. I’m curious: will there be a presentation ceremony? Will it be broadcast live on ARISE? Hahahaha.