Is Tinubu Nigeria’s opposition nemesis?

“History has a Nemesis for every sin.” — Theodor Mommsen

At a time when constructive interrogations of President Bola Tinubu’s administration should dominate national discourse, it’s unfortunate that the ongoing rancorous defections by politicians have taken over rational national engagements. The issue in contemporary Nigerian politics is distractingly about who’s for or against Tinubu. It’s so disgusting that what’s unfurling is now being disturbingly misinterpreted to mean that Nigeria is gradually becoming a one party state.

The issue of defection, colloquially known as cross carpeting, is currently gaining momentum, and this is expectedly because the nation is approaching another general elections year. The next general elections, except an amendment to the Electoral Act occurs, will be coming up between February and March 2027.

So, real politicking amongst politicians of the land is now ongoing. Politicians are weighing their options and doing their selfish permutations with no iota of consideration for values and principles. And, since the party controlling the federal level of power is at any point in history perceived as the most potently viable, politicians see such party as the beautiful bride that they must marry or ingeniously court. That party as it stands today is the All Progressives Congress(APC), under the national headship of Tinubu.

In this season of political defections, the general feelings that President Tinubu’s behind the democratically detrimental defections plot is debatable even though understandable. The truth of the matter that no one wants to acknowledge is that Tinubu, despite being the current landlord of the Presidential Villa, is shockingly the ‘authentic opposition’ in the country notwithstanding the purported oppositional shenanigans of Alhaji Abubakar Atiku, GCON, Peter Obi and others. Isn’t it shameful that Abubakar Atiku and Peter Obi are still forum-shopping on which political platforms to pitch their tents in their bid to run for president in the upcoming presidential elections. It’s that bad for this indecisiveness reflects the lack of self values, principle or philosophy by leading politicians in the country. Obviously, this can’t be Tinubu’s fault.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) that Atiku and Obi once held sway, at a point stayed too long in power, and thinking erroneously too, that that’ll take forever but the party cannot ever fathom that a day like this will come when they’ll be the political opposition.

In facts and figures, when issues around contemporary politics are discussed, for good or bad, the general notion is that such must have Tinubu’s imprimatur. No wonder then that there’s palpable fears in the court of public opinion that the country might be etching gradually into a one-party state with the inexorable rise in defections of opposition politicians, especially governors and their lawmakers, to the All Progressives Party(APC), with the shrewd political strategist called Tinubu known to be calling the shots.

Above fears have been further amplified by the excitedly insensitive comments by the immediate past national chairman of the APC and former governor of Kano state, Alhaji Abdullahi Umar Ganduje. It was he who at the twilight of his tenure as the APC national chairman that was reported to have declared: “We are not saying we are working for a one-party system, but if this is the wish of Nigerians, we cannot quarrel with that. You know, they say too many cooks spoil the broth; too many political parties spoil governance.”

Ganduje’s undemocratic statement couldn’t have been the wish of Nigerians but at best be described as his own wishful thinking. In the same vein, it would be apriori reasoning to wantonly conclude that the statement from Ganduje be interpreted to be the opinion of Tinubu.

At the risk of being accused of being an unofficial mouthpiece of the president, it is pertinent to remind ourselves that defection has always been a recurring theme in the nation’s ongoing democratic experiment. From past experiences, defections have been embarrassingly embarked upon by politicians in and out of power with shameful alacrity.

The country’s partisan engagements, known to be bereft of political morality and any identifiable ideological considerations, might be responsible for this. When you have an ounce of morality and ideology missing in any so called democratic process like ours in Nigeria, it becomes difficult to clearly nail any politician on the cross for their mostly logic defying and unexplainable defections that pushes selfish pursuits to the fore. Governors, legislators, and politicians of influence have played the game of political harlotry, not for any developmental reasons other than avaricious personal pursuits. All the political parties that have existed and still exist under this democratic reality, and their members are guilty of this highly detrimental political game.

The country becoming a one-party state is not something worthy of celebrating by stakeholders in the country’s current democratic experiment. Not even the president who has been a foremost figure in opposition politics while holding firmly his Lagos political forte can imagine the country becoming a one-party state under him. He never brooks such idea from other leaders before him. Yours sincerely can vouch for the president because the president knows that such an occurrence will only create a high wired public service hypocrisy with dire consequences on the political system. Sooner or later, those decampees from these currently less favoured political parties to APC will form the balk of political bastards that will balkanise the party later. That is the undiluted reality because they never shared its values or ideals but only seeking a platform to keep their jobs.

Hence, it’ll be fair to state that what we’re witnessing today is the long term consequences of the political rascality of the previous and present leadership of the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP). Ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo laid the foundation of the democratic rot called defection, and certainly, Tinubu won’t be proud to consolidate on the former leader’s partisan dictatorial inclinations. More troubling is that most of those robed in progressive garbs in APC today are staunch reactionaries from PDP and other lesser parties, hibernating in the ruling party simply because it’s in power. It won’t be a proud record if the president allows these political prostitutes to engrave the condemnable phrase of sycophantic defection that crumbled the PDP on his solid political name.

An excursion into Nigeria’s recent political history has become necessary if only to show that defection being currently witnessed is not an uncommon but certainly a windy ephemerality in our clime. For example, the PDP once haughtily prided itself as the “largest party in Africa” while its then national chairman, a retired Army General called Ahmadu Ali, vainly boasted that the party would rule the country for 60 years. Its fistic hold on the country’s political firmament lasted just sixteen years.

At that time, it was as if their time in power would never come to an end.
The indicators of delusional dominance were there because as at May 30, 2007, the PDP was controlling thirty-two states including Abia, Adamawa, Anambra, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Ekiti, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba and Zamfara.

By then also, the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), the defunct Action Congress (AC), and All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) were operating as merely fringe political parties.

But ten kings, ten epochs so says a long-standing aphorism. Today, in Y2025, some people with no adequate sense of history are yelling Tinubu’s name simply because the ruling APC firmly controls more state including Akwa-Ibom, ‎Ebonyi, ‎Enugu, ‎Imo , ‎Lagos, ‎Ondo , ‎Ekiti, ‎Ogun , ‎Edo , ‎Kwara, ‎Kogi, ‎Niger, ‎Nasarawa, ‎Borno, ‎Yobe, ‎Gombe, ‎Kano, ‎Benue, Kaduna, ‎Katsina, ‎Zamfara, ‎Kebbi, ‎Jigawa, ‎Delta, Rivers and Bayelsa.
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Quite curiously, the PDP as at today controls a paltry eight states from thirty-two in 2007, including Oyo, ‎Osun, ‎Cross River, ‎Plateau, ‎Taraba, ‎Bauchi, ‎Adamawa and Sokoto. It is doubtful if governors and the lawmakers from these few remaining states that PDP is controlling would not have decamped to APC by the time this piece is published or latest by December. Two political parties, APGA and the Labour party, are holding onto Abia and Anambra states, respectively. Who knows?

Above depicts the seasonality of defections in Nigeria’s body polity.
Even Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, while serving as vice-president of Nigeria under the Obasanjo presidency, with Tinubu’s mentorship, cross-carpeted to the current president’s then Action Congress (AC) party to run for the presidency of this country. His shamelessness for doing this at that time shows his lack of moral compass to condemn those decamping to Tinubu’s party at the moment. Atiku and company are only playing the hypocritical card against the current landlord of the Presidential Villa. The more selfish cries they make against Tinubu, the more certain it becomes that the current president will secure a reelection come the next general elections.

Nothing happening now is new, but
Tinubu must do things differently. I once told the current president in a private conversation sometimes ago, on the need for him to effect uniform manifesto for states controlled by his political party like the great political icon, late Pa Obafemi Awolowo, did for his Unity Party of Nigeria(UPN) controlled states during his lifetime. Tinubu’s opportunity to heed my suggestion is now to prevent governor decampees to his party from running haywire in different directions.

The ongoing cross-carpeting is a confirmation of the fact that Tinubu is ahead of his political foes including Atiku by thousands of miles. We can not easily forget how he galvanized the opposition as a private citizen to uproot PDP’s stay in power for late Mohammadu Buhari to govern this country. Now, as a sitting president, his political-pull will be commonsensically higher and should not be denigrated by his traducers.

My counsel: Tinubu should not take undue advantage of this divine political-pull gift for granted. Nigerians look forward to feeling and seeing the positive impact of his ideas. The current decamping process can only make sense once he realises that he’s at the apogee of his political relevance. Those decamping to APC today are doing so because he’s the president. If he stops being one tomorrow, they’ll jump into the ship of the next person. So, he has to be very careful and think of making a difference rather than leading an assemblage of strange bed follows to avoid the PDP blunders of the past.

The president should positively strive to improve the lots of his people. This can be done if he comes up with constructive plan that aligns with what he espoused before he became the president.

Winning reelection in 2027 or whenever should be the least of Tinubu’s worries for now. He will get it, but the verdict of history is more important to yours sincerely. Now that it is confirmed that he’s the nemesis of our hypocritical opposition, his worries should be how he’ll create a legacy of positive envy and not one that would be derided by historians. Indeed, Tinubu has overwhelmed Nigeria’s current opposition juggernauts. Nothing more!

Sanusi, former MD/CEO of Lagos State Signage & Advertisement Agency, is currently managing partner of AMS Reliable Solicitors.