Since he was defeated in the 2015 presidential election, President Goodluck Jonathan has remained very visible in the public eye. Moreover, his unspent second term keeps hovering over the political waters. Because Jonathan conducted himself with dignity in the aftermath of his loss — even conceding the election to Candidate Muhammadu Buhari before the results were officially declared — there has always been some sympathy for him in the political arena. There was once a rumour that Buhari favoured Jonathan as his successor because he was disgusted with almost every aspirant in his own party. That will remain a rumour forever as Buhari can no longer confirm or deny it.
Jonathan’s dream return started looking real in 2022 after he met with Buhari’s nephew, Mallam Mamman Daura. He was reported to have joined the All Progressives Congress (APC) in his Otuoke ward, Bayelsa state. In a jiffy, an APC presidential nomination form costing N100 million was collected on his behalf with a Heritage Bank cheque. Nothing came out of the drama and the former president later denied all the rumours. The reading then was that if he was sure of getting the ticket, he would have gone all the way. But with no such assurances, he could not have defeated established APC members such as Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Rt Hon Rotimi Amaechi in an open primary.
The rumour of Jonathan’s quest to return to Aso Rock was strong for a long period before 2023. The word in town was that he was romancing with the APC and that, as part of the deal, he supported APC’s David Lyon in the 2019 Bayelsa governorship election, although he was officially a member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Despite winning the election, Lyon was disqualified because of his running mate, Senator Biobarakuma Degi, whose certificates bore different names without any affidavit to explain why. Chief Douye Diri, the PDP candidate who came second, was declared winner by default, and Jonathan immediately embraced him, describing him as “my former commissioner”.
As we are getting set for the 2027 presidential election, the rumour is all over town again that Jonathan wants to run. As usual, he has said nothing and given no hint whatsoever. All we are left to do is speculate. But those who circulate regularly within the Nigerian political flow are swearing that he is indeed very much interested. There are politicians, such as Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi state, who are openly canvassing for him. Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the man some analysts tip to inherit a chunk of Buhari’s fanbase, is also reported to have held meetings with Jonathan but so also are his associates meeting with President Bola Tinubu regularly. It is the way of politicians.
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Why do some people want Jonathan back? There are various reasons. The immediate one is what I call political mathematics: those who want power back in the north by 2031 believe he is the natural choice since he can only do one more term (I will come back to this presently). Unlike Amaechi and Peter Obi who are having to swear that they will do only one term, Jonathan does not need to promise anything: he has done one term already and the constitution does not allow a third. The alternative for those canvassing the one-term option is Tinubu, who also cannot go beyond 2031 if he is re-elected in 2027. The one-term proponents are left to choose between Tinubu and Jonathan.
There are northerners, even in the African Democratic Congress (ADC), who are uncomfortable with an Abubakar Atiku presidency in 2027. Aside the fact that it will effectively terminate the ambition of northern politicians who want to contest in 2031, they do not want another toxic polity that followed Jonathan’s decision to run in 2011 which inevitably truncated the northern turn in Aso Rock. It clearly poisoned the political atmosphere. Cutting short the southern tenure in 2027 may create a similar animosity. That is why some northern strategists are genuinely looking southwards to maintain the balance. But assumptions that any southerner would willingly do only one term would be a gamble.
Tinubu is no longer an option for many northerners who accuse him — rightly, even if it is all politics — that his appointments have been heavily tilted towards his Yoruba kith and kin and that his geo-political zone has had an unfair share of federal projects. There will be many northerners who would argue that Tinubu should be supported to just do his second term “and go home” — but so also are those who think Jonathan is a more even-handed leader who would not hurt the interests of the north. We may not like these lines of reasoning but politics has always been about interests. Even in the world’s most advanced democracies, politics is about interests. It is time for us to get used to it!
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Another reason some Nigerians want Jonathan back is the nostalgia about the “good old days”. They consider him a better manager of the economy and are sure that the “good times” will return if he gets another chance to preside over Nigeria in 2027. They say under Jonathan, petrol was N87/litre but is now N900; the exchange rate was N160/$ but is now N1,540; and a bag of rice was N10,000 but is now N150,000. This comparison business is a favourite pastime of some on social media. Many Nigerians don’t know the link between high oil revenues and our economic fortunes/misfortunes. But that is a different matter altogether. Remember we are discussing politics, not economics.
I have also spoken to quite a number of people — although I don’t know how non-aligned they are — who are of the opinion that the ongoing undeclared Yoruba/Igbo war can be toned down by a “neutral” like Jonathan, who is of the southern minority stock. There was the regular Igbo vs Fulani fixture when Buhari was in power. It has shifted to an Igbo vs Yoruba derby since the 2023 elections. Jonathan, it is argued, can help defuse the tension. I don’t know how logical this position is because many would argue that Jonathan identified as “Azikiwe” in 2011 and was well accepted and loved by the Igbo when he was president — whereas south-west politicians complained of marginalisation.
But this begs the question: is Jonathan qualified to contest? Section 134 (3) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended in 2017) states: “A person who was sworn in as President to complete the term for which another person was elected as President shall not be elected to such office for more than a single term.” Jonathan was sworn in to complete the term of the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in May 2010 and was elected in his own right in the 2011 presidential election. Since he has been elected once and sworn in twice, doesn’t that mean if he wins in 2027, he will be sworn for a third term? Doesn’t that automatically bar him from running in the next presidential election?
Olorogun Festus Keyamo, a senior lawyer and minister of aviation and aerospace development, thinks any party that fields Jonathan will be risking disqualification. “One of [PDP’s] attractive targets as a Presidential candidate is ex-President Goodluck Jonathan, because of his purported eligibility to run for only one term. But, if he is fielded, the Party runs the RISK of NOT HAVING A CANDIDATE AT ALL by virtue of section 137 (3) of the 1999 Constitution (Fourth Amendment). The constitutional amendment was made AFTER the court judgment which cleared him to run in 2015, so nothing is decided yet on that new amendment, hence I use the word ‘RISK’ advisedly,” Keyamo wrote on X.
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The minister was referring to a court judgment delivered by Justice Mudashiru Oniyangi in March 2013 which cleared Jonathan to run in 2015. Mr Cyriacus Njoku, a PDP member, had gone to court to argue that section 137 (1) of the 1999 Constitution barred Jonathan because it said: “A person shall not be qualified for election to the office of President if – (b) he has been elected to such office at any two previous elections.” The judge pointed out that Jonathan had only been elected once — in 2011 — as his inauguration as president after Yar’Adua’s death did not amount to an election. I believe this influenced the amendment of the 1999 Constitution in 2017 to reflect “sworn in”, not just “elected”.
But Keyamo’s position has also been countered. As reported by THISDAY, the issue was settled in May 2022. Two APC members had gone to court to enforce the Fourth Alteration of 2017. Justice Isah Dashem of the Federal High Court, Yenagoa, Bayelsa state, ruled that Jonathan was not sworn in after the amendment and it did not apply to him. My little knowledge of law is that a new provision does not take retroactive effect. Those sworn in after the amendment are, however, affected. The first will be Chief Lucky Aiyedatiwa who, as Ondo deputy governor, was sworn in when Rotimi Akeredolu died in 2023. He has now been sworn in twice, after winning his own election in 2024.
It may also interest us to know that there had been a judicial pronouncement on this matter in 2003. Chief Segun Osoba (Ogun), Prince Abubakar Audu (Kogi), Rev Jolly Nyame (Taraba) and Alhaji Bukar Abba Ibrahim (Yobe) were elected governors in 1991 under the 1989 Constitution. In 1999, they contested again and won, this time under a new constitution, but a question arose in 2003 if they could go for a second term since that would amount to being elected thrice. The Court of Appeal ruled that the provisions of the 1989 Constitution could not apply to elections conducted under the 1999 Constitution. In other words, a new constitutional provision does not apply to past events.
The undertone of the Jonathan debate should not be lost on us, though. If he decides to run and gets the backing of critical segments of the core north in addition to his fan bases in the south and Christian north, he will stand a good chance. That is why I think supporters of Tinubu will try to scare him out of the race while fans of Atiku/Obi will do everything to discourage him from throwing his hat in the ring. As for me, as long as he is eligible and he is persuaded in his mind that he has what it takes to go the whole hog, he should go for it. But Jonathan is, I suggest, loss-averse. The Jonathan we know will not run except he gets iron-cast assurances. But who can give him such assurances?
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AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…
FEDERAL CHARACTER
President Tinubu has been accused of favouring the south-west, his home zone, in the distribution of federal projects. In trying to counter the narrative, the administration released a list of projects that embarrassingly misidentified locations (confusing the north-east for the north-west). The interesting bit is how Lagos state was cleverly left out of the south-west as if Nigerians are dumb not to notice. I don’t even know what amuses me the most: south-westerners who criticised President Buhari for favouring the north but have now safely gone quiet under Tinubu — or northerners who kept quiet under Buhari but have now found their voice under Tinubu. There is an English word for it. Hypocrisy.
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CURRICULUM VITAL
Federal government has announced a “revolutionary” curriculum for basic education. Students will experience “a lighter, more skill-driven curriculum designed to improve quality of instruction and ensure that learners are well-prepared for the global economy”. JSS 1 students will now have to pick a trade subject “to boost practical skills”. Beautiful and long overdue. However, I am amazed that the new curriculum will take “immediate effect”, which raises vital questions about our preparedness. Have instructional materials been developed for the curriculum? Are the teachers up to speed? Or should we say another Nigerian case of “good policy, bad implementation” is the making? Troubling.
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BITING BIAFRA
Simon Ekpa, the Finland-based Biafra advocate, has been sentenced to a six-year imprisonment by a Finnish court for his terrorism rhetoric, thereby casting doubt on speculation that he had international backing. Ekpa, a triple jumper who represented Nigeria at the 2003 African junior championships, created the Biafra Republic Government in Exile (BRGIE) in 2023 and declared himself prime minister, raising the hopes of millions of supporters of the want-away region. But his imprisonment will not end the agitation for Biafra. Let us be clear about that. However, I think people can genuinely want away and not be engaged in or supporting violence and terrorism. Extreme.
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NO COMMENT
Senator Elisha Abbo, former senator for Adamawa north, says he is on a one-month fast to seek God’s guidance on his next political steps. He was once in the PDP but defected to the APC along the line. “In 2020, I left PDP for APC without praying and asking God’s direction on which party to join,” he wrote on X. “I left for tangible reasons and raw instincts and joined APC out of human judgment and to flow with the tide. This time around, I undertook 31 days of fasting and prayers, seeking direction among other things I asked God to do for me.” I can now understand why he assaulted that lady at a sex toy shop in Abuja in 2019: he didn’t ask God for direction to the right shop. Hahahaha.
