BY Sodiq Yusuff
Muhammadu Buhari, presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), has conceded the picking of his running mate to Bola Tinubu, national leader of the party, TheCable can report.
This has in effect diminished the chances of Chibuike Amaechi, governor of Rivers state, who was all along tipped to be the vice-presidential candidate.
Further discussions are going to be held this weekend, but a quick decision may not be reached.
The party still has up till December 18 to submit the name of the nominee to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Buhari’s decision to give Tinubu the slot is apparently based on the voting population of the south-west which he is banking on to upstage the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2015 presidential election.
“Politics is not winner-takes-all. Tinubu worked round the clock to deliver a huge chunk of votes to Buhari in the primary, and it is only fair that he is honoured in return,” an aide to Buhari told TheCable.
Tinubu, TheCable can further report, has not foreclosed the choice of anyone as the VP candidate, but he is opposed to Amaechi – although the Rivers governor has made the biggest financial contribution to Buhari’s campaign.
An APC chieftain from the south-west told TheCable: “Rumours that Amaechi has been chosen as the running mate are not true in any form. The running mate will be announced soon.”
The chieftain further told TheCable: “If the party exco settles for a Muslim/Muslim ticket, Tinubu himself will be the number one choice. If not, then Adams Oshiomhole stands the best chance among the rest.”
He ruled out Babatunde Fashola, governor of Lagos, who is also a Muslim.
TheCable has now installed Oshiomhole, Edo governor, as the odds-on favourite for the running mate slot, slashing his chances from 8/10 to 8/9, while dropping Amaechi’s odds from 9/10 to 5/10.
Age: 62
State: Edo
Education: Economics and industrial relations (Ruskin College, Oxford)
Political experience: Governor, Edo (2008 till date)
The case for: Popular former labour leader seen as a champion of the masses under President Olusegun Obasanjo; Nationwide name recognition; Articulate and cerebral; Considered to be a performing governor; south-south minority who has cross-zonal appeal; Could be compromise candidate between Tinubu and Amaechi camps.
The case against: Not strong enough to garner south-south majority votes.
TheCable odds: 8/9 to be picked as running mate
Age: 49
State: Rivers
Education: BA English studies and literature (University of Port Harcourt)
Political experience: Speaker, Rivers house of assembly (1999-2007); governor, Rivers (2007 till date)
The case for: Could be spoiler to Jonathan in Rivers, which has 2.4 million votes and has traditionally been an electoral pot of gold for PDP; Has invested heavily in Buhari’s campaign and is on good terms with the APC presidential candidate; Loved in many parts of the north for his open opposition to Jonathan; Has a good record of achievements in Rivers.
The case against: Not likely to woo south-south and south-east where Jonathan is expected to hold sway as “home favourite”; South-west voters may not be too enthusiastic at the polls with no Yoruba on the ticket; Considered to be too combustible to be a loyal and calm deputy to a strong-willed person like Buhari.
TheCable odds: 6/10 to be picked as running mate
Age: 55
State: Lagos
Education: Bachelor of law (University of Lagos); master’s degree (London School of Economics)
Political experience: Lagos attorney-general and commissioner for justice (1999-2007)
For: Intellectual, professor of law and senior advocate of Nigeria (SAN); highly respected as man of integrity; pastor in the Redeemed Christian Church of God and could assuage “fundamentalist” suspicion of Buhari; a legal brain behind the Tinubu government in 1999-2007.
Against: Lack of electoral experience; name recognition highly constrained; Naming a pastor not an automatic guarantee of Christian votes.
TheCable odds: 6/10 to be picked as running mate
Age: 49
State: Ekiti
Education: Degrees in history, politics and international relations from the Universities of Lagos and Ife in Nigeria; PhD in war studies (King’s College, University of London).
Political experience: Ekiti governor (2010-2014)
For: Former governor who has national name-recognition; a Christian from the south-west to counter fundamentalism feelings about Buhari; good performer as governor; intellectual; calm and mature politician.
Against: Having lost Ekiti election, electoral value in question; not in the good books of Tinubu, who calls the shots in the south-west.
TheCable odds: 5/50 to be picked as running mate
Olawale Edun, 49, former Lagos commissioner for finance (1999-2004), B.Sc (Economics), University of London; M.Sc (Economics), University of Sussex. TheCable odds: 1/250
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