Kwankwaso’s dilemma

BY SHAMSU GUJUNGU

On one hand, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso joining the APC would bring him short-term political advancement as he could possibly become Tinubu’s Vice President in 2027 while also retaining control of Kano state. However, the downside is that joining the APC might diminish his political value and integrity.

Just as the masses no longer sympathise with Kashim Shettima or Namadi Sambo, by 2031, in the north, all the blame for Tinubu’s administration will likely fall on Kwankwaso. The people might end up resenting him even more than Tinubu.

It’s possible that when that time comes, he will be sacrificed in a coalition arrangement. Kwankwaso must therefore be extremely cautious. Realistically, if he joins the APC, his political journey might end at the vice-presidency—not the presidency—because he will bear the brunt of public anger against Tinubu.

As for Tinubu, he only cares about his own political survival. That’s why he’s sidelining Shettima—not necessarily because Shettima did anything wrong—and why he made Ganduje step down. Tomorrow, he could abandon anyone if it serves his political interests. He’s a politician obsessed with dominance and control. Even after leaving office, he’ll want to install someone he can manipulate as president. So, it’s unlikely he’d hand the presidential ticket to Kwankwaso. He might instead go for someone like Nuhu Ribadu or Yakubu Dogara.

On the other hand, if Kwankwaso refuses to join either a coalition or the APC and instead runs under a separate party (essentially not supporting Tinubu), then whether he wins or loses, some in the north might forever resent him for being against the coalition.

Still, joining a coalition could benefit Kwankwaso—if he uses the opportunity to negotiate a strong deal. If I were Kwankwaso, I would aim for the position of senate president. Becoming senator for Kano central is an easy win for him. While the vice-presidency may seem higher, in Nigeria, the power of the senate president is often greater.

Just look at what Akpabio does compared to Shettima, or what Saraki achieved versus Osinbajo, or David Mark versus Namadi Sambo. As senate president, you’re privy to real power and decisions because your cooperation is needed. As VP, many things happen without your knowledge.

So Kwankwaso will have to do his own calculations—not necessarily for national progress, but just like other politicians do.

Gujungu can be contacted via [email protected]