TheCable

No surprises. It was speculated that President Muhammadu Buhari would withhold assent to the Electoral Act (Amendment) Bill 2021 and he finally did. His concern, he said, is the mandatory direct primary through which parties are to pick their candidates. This, he maintained, will lead to high costs of conducting primaries, cause security challenges, violate citizens’ rights, lead to litigation and is subject to manipulation. Parties should be allowed to adopt the type of primary election that they choose, the president argued. He has been commended by some governors and condemned by civil society groups and some members of the national assembly. I expect more fireworks ahead.

Many have asked me: what is direct primary? It is “direct” in the sense that every eligible party member can vote “directly” in picking candidates for all elections: house of assembly, governorship, national assembly and presidential. For instance, all eligible PDP members will vote at their wards to decide who will be the presidential candidate of the party in 2023. Currently, the preferred system is “indirect” under which elected or nominated delegates do the voting. Under the “indirect primary” system, the PDP would hold a single convention where delegates from all over the federation will vote to pick the presidential candidate. This has been the most common mode of primary in Nigeria.

Where do I stand? I am not really bothered about what mode of primary a party adopts to pick its candidates. Direct and indirect are both democratic. Neither is guaranteed to be free of manipulation. And neither is primed to guarantee good governance. As I always say, our problem is not the system but its operators. We did direct presidential primary in 1992 and watched as some candidates shared N50 notes and hot loaves of bread to win votes. Also, we did indirect presidential primary the following year and watched as some candidates camped delegates in hotels and spread GMG bags around to secure their votes. As far as I am concerned, the problem is us, not the system.

Still, I agree with Buhari on two points. One, the cost of conducting direct primary will be enormous for the parties and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Imagine INEC, as mandated by law, having to send observers to monitor every party’s presidential primary in 8,809 wards across Nigeria — compared to just a convention in one location. Two, I agree that parties should choose the system they prefer. Some are financially stronger than the others and can afford the logistics of holding a primary election in every ward. Nevertheless, I think Buhari belaboured his argument with many flimsy reasons, such as security and ligation. Indirect will not eliminate those.

But, as hyperboles go in public debates in Nigeria, Buhari’s refusal to sign the amendment is now cast as the worst thing that has happened to democracy in the history of the human race! The previous worst thing was his refusal to allow “electronic voting” in 2019. And the worst one before then was President Goodluck Jonathan’s refusal to allow the National Judicial Council (NJC) nominate INEC chairman as recommended by the Mohammed Uwais panel. Before that one, the worst thing ever was President Olusegun Obasanjo’s refusal to support the return of the ancient open ballot system. Those who frame public debate in Nigeria deserve a million Nobel prizes.

Pray, how does direct or indirect primary produce credible elections? I have looked for examples across the world, from Africa and Asia to Europe and the Americas, and found nothing definitive. Who then came up with this fantastic theory that direct primary is fool-proof and the most democratic? Some people have set the tone for the discourse and — as typical of us in Nigeria — all we do is parrot them without interrogating the logic and the facts. It happens all the time. For all you care, the hullabaloo over direct primary is a face-off between governors and federal legislators — but it has now been packaged and presented to us as a struggle for the survival of democracy.

The much I know is that legislators want to curtail the influence of the governors who are in control of the party machinery in the states and can, thus, deny them re-election tickets. To clip governors’ wings, the legislators want a direct system that will, theoretically, be beyond governors’ control. The lawmakers can bypass party leadership at the ward level and take hot loaves of bread directly to the party members in order to secure the tickets. In a nutshell, this is the core of the direct primary controversy that has been sold to Nigerians as a patriotic war to rescue Nigeria from rigging and misrule. Fellow Nigerians, it is all politics. Head or tail, the politicians win. You and I are mere pawns.

I am also aware that some APC presidential aspirants prefer direct primary because, by their own permutations, it will work in their favour. Results of a direct primary are easier to manipulate, compared to an indirect primary. For instance, before the 2021 Anambra governorship election, Chief Andy Uba secured 230,000 votes in the APC direct primary and was nominated candidate. In the election proper, when more people actually vote, Uba got only 43,000 votes. Compare this with the 2017 APC indirect primary in the same state where 5,430 delegates voted and Chief Tony Nwoye got 2,146 votes to defeat Uba, who got only 931 votes. It is harder to manipulate indirect figures.

My indifferent attitude to direct primary does not mean I am saying we should not improve the electoral system to accommodate innovations. The introduction of electronic voter registration and electronic verification has obviously helped the system. You cannot change bad behaviour overnight, but at least you can make certain things more difficult for riggers. Some innovations can be implemented to continue to make some bad practices difficult in our environment. On the basis of this, I support continuous innovation. What I cannot stand is the way we shout “democracy is in danger” at the slightest provocation — simply because we cannot have our way over certain issues.

The initial “biggest” thing that endangered our democracy, going by the trending argument, is that Buhari refused to sign the electoral law amendment because electronic voting “will eliminate rigging and make it impossible for the APC (his party) to retain power”. Ladies and gentlemen, there is no provision for electronic voting in the amendment. What we have is electronic transmission of results. That is, the results of voting in every polling unit will be electronically fed into INEC servers. I love technology and would be happy for us to vote electronically and transmit results electronically, but do we have to shamelessly fiddle with the facts just because we want to win an argument?

And, come to think of it, will electronic transmission of results — which I support 100 percent — eliminate rigging? If your answer is yes, then you don’t understand the science of rigging in Nigeria. It is what you feed into the servers that INEC will collate. If you bribe INEC officials, security agents and polling agents to feed forged figures into the servers, that is it. We always think the problem is the system, not its operators. We are always wrong. Lest I forget, didn’t Alhaji Atiku Abubakar allege (without evidence, though) in 2019 that INEC servers were tampered with and his votes manipulated? So where is this logic of fool-proof electronic transmission of results coming from?

Today, many activists refer to the 2015 general election as “credible” because a sitting president was defeated. Yet, when Prof Attahiru Jega was appointed as INEC chairman by Jonathan in 2010, all hell was let loose. People said the INEC boss must be nominated by the NJC as recommended by the Electoral Reform Committee (the Uwais Panel) set up by late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2007. Otherwise, we would never have credible elections! The PDP did not implement Uwais Panel report, critics said, because they wanted to rig. It became the sing-song in the media. Yet, PDP later lost power under the same Jega, appointed by Jonathan. The critics started celebrating Jega. Nigeria!

In my article, ‘Jega, Uwais Report, June 12, etc’ (THISDAY, June 13, 2010), this was my summary of their position: “The aspect of the Uwais Report which many see as the ‘super solution’ to electoral fraud is the appointment of the INEC chairman through a process overseen by the National Judicial Council (NJC). The body should be saddled with the responsibility of advertising vacant INEC board positions. It will screen applicants and recommend three nominees per position to the National Council of State (made up mainly of governors!) NCS will then pick one nominee per position and send the name to the National Assembly for confirmation… That is the Uwais Report magic!”

I then countered: “But who said an Iwu cannot emerge through this process? Has anyone ever bothered to look at (former INEC chairman Professor Maurice) Iwu’s CV? You can tick all the right boxes, emerge through a rigorous process and still be a crook! By the way, I still prefer a rigorous selection process, but that does not in any way guarantee a credible INEC chairman. Our problems are deeper than that.” That was my view 11 years ago. My view has not changed till today. Our problems are far deeper than systems. We have some of the most rigorous systems, theoretically designed for transparency and accountability, but we always conspire to subvert them. Always.

Before then, there was a heavy storm over what the voting system should be: secret or open ballot? In 2005-2006, the public sphere was awash with a campaign for a return to the open ballot system — in which voters would openly queue up behind the posters of their preferred candidates. According to the proponents, this would mark the end of rigging in our history. The damned hyperbole! Some even revised history and said open ballot was used for the June 12, 1993 presidential election and that was why it was the “most credible” poll ever. But June 12 was conducted by secret ballot. Truth is the first casualty when some agitators want to play their game.

I think we should stop chasing shadows. Direct primary or indirect primary does not make a rigging culture better or worse. Electronic or manual transmission of results does not make elections better or worse. In the UK, for instance, there is no PVC or BVAS. You go to the polling unit, identity your name on the register, collect the ballot paper with a pencil, go to a cubicle, mark ‘X’ against your choice, fold the paper, drop it in the box and you are done. Without a long queue, you could conclude the entire process in one minute. You follow the rest of the proceedings on TV and hear the results in the evening or the following day. Nigerians who vote in the UK can attest to this.

In Nigeria, however, we regularly spend billions on voter registration (when national ID is clearly enough), do PVC and BVAS, buy all kinds of equipment, deploy troops and police all over the federation, disrupt the economy by restricting movements and shutting the businesses of self-employed Nigerians, engage all manner of professors as returning officers and so on. But what do we get in return? Vote-buying, intimidation, manipulation and such like. Some judges are also waiting in the wings to upturn the results depending on who can pay well. And we turn around to conclude that our problem is direct primary or electronic transmission. We will wake up one day.

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

MAGODO MADNESS

Last week, an army of thugs, policemen and Shangisha landlords invaded Magodo Phase II residential area. They had sued the Lagos state government for acquiring the area for “public use” in 1984 only to turn it into a residential scheme. In 2012, the Supreme Court ordered Lagos to allocate plots to the affected landlords. Fair enough. Most have accepted plots in other residential schemes, but some came with a bulldozer to Magodo on Tuesday to “possess” already allocated plots whose titles they do not have — and without a valid writ of possession. Did the court say they should be “allocated” plots or they should take the plots by “force”? Whatever the merit of their case, their action was silly. In what country would private individuals bulldoze over 500 houses one evening — with women and children inside? Has our insanity in Nigeria reached these levels? Unbelievable.

HUSTLE AND BILLIONS

In my previous article, ‘How Not to Kill the ‘Hustle’ of Nigerians’, I asked: “When will someone up there realise that it is in the best interest of government to seek first the prosperity of businesses — and bigger tax revenue will inevitably be added to it?” A few days later, Elon Musk, world’s richest man, tweeted that he would be paying $11bn in taxes this year. Mr Taiwo Oyedele, a tax expert, commented thus: “Just to put this in context, Elon Musk’s $11 billion tax bill exceeds the aggregate personal income tax collected by all 36 states in Nigeria over the past 5 years. Lesson: A government is only as rich as its people.” How else may we explain this to the Nigerian authorities? Sense.

COLD COVID

The Omicron variant of the coronavirus has thrown a spanner in the wheel of progress of the global fight against the pandemic as the first two vaccine doses are not offering enough protection. There is the little good news that Omicron is not as severe as its ancestors — Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta — even though it is more infectious and is now responsible for most new cases. The theory is that if Omicron becomes dominant, COVID may end up as nothing more than a cold. I hope so. Meanwhile, I got my Pfizer booster jab on Wednesday. I will continue to wear my face mask, wash my hands and observe necessary measures to protect myself and others. So help me God. Amen.

LOVE IN YIKPATA

When I saw the picture of a female soldier kissing a youth corps member while accepting his marriage proposal at the NYSC Yikpata Camp in Kwara state, I knew there would be trouble. The military runs a regimented system. There is a limit to what you can do while wearing the uniform. Even the Bible says “no soldier that warreth entangleth himself with civilian pursuits”. Of course, the story has now been twisted to mean the Nigerian army is saying she was wrong to fall in love. How can? Don’t soldiers marry? All said and done, though, I am pleased that the army has tempered justice with mercy. This thing called love can make one forget the rules at times. Clemency.