TheCable

When President Muhammadu Buhari announced that a nationwide curfew would replace lockdown in more states beyond Lagos, Ogun and the federal capital territory (FCT), there were concerns that the country would experience an upward surge in its COVID-19 case rate.

And so it came to be. With the eased lockdown came tightly-packed queues in banks, complete disregard for physical distancing in places of worship, markets, commercial vehicles, among others. And with the open flouting of guidelines issued on social distancing, ban on large gatherings, and compulsory use of face masks, while many may have expected an increase, not many people would have expected a rise beyond 150 percent.

However, in four weeks since the phased lockdown relaxation began on May 4, 2020, Nigeria recorded 7,604 cases.

The five-week lockdown, which took effect at midnight on March 29, was part of efforts to ensure efficient contact tracing and limit spread of the coronavirus, especially with what was considered a high rate of infections at the time.

Between February 27, 2020, when the index case was confirmed and May 3, 2020, out of 18,536 samples tested, a total of 2,558 cases were confirmed in 35 states and the federal capital territory (FCT) At the time, 87 deaths were recorded, while 400 patients had been discharged.

FROM 2,558 TO 10,162 IN FOUR WEEKS

On May 4, the total lockdown declared in Lagos, Ogun and the FCT was relaxed for an initial two weeks and the federal government announced the nationwide curfew. Kano was, however, placed on a total lockdown as a result of the unusual increase in COVID-19 cases.

By May 18 when the initial two-week relaxation ended, Nigeria moved from less than 3,000 cases to 6,175 confirmed cases, out of which 1,644 persons had recovered and 191 deaths occurred. This was an almost 250 percent increase from the previous figure before the lockdown was lifted.

The lockdown relaxation was extended by another two weeks till June 1 and the cases have increased significantly as well.

In that time, Kogi joined the list of affected states with two index COVID-19 cases announced by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) on May 27, 2020.

As of May 31, samples tested have more than tripled the previous figure to over 60,000, just as the toll of confirmed cases have also increased to 10,162 cases.

On a positive note, the recovery rate has almost doubled as well, moving from 1,644 to 3,007 patients in the two-week period. In that time, 96 deaths have been recorded, increasing the number of fatalities from 191 to 287.

Lagos, which currently has the highest cases, also moved from 1,107 to 4,943 confirmed COVID-19 cases within the four-week eased lockdown period.

Chikwe Ihekweazu, director-general of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), had said while the agency’s sights are set on increased testing capacity, Nigerians should expect a corresponding increase in the positive cases as well.

A set of guidelines for the next phase is expected to be announced by the presidential task force (PTF) on COVID-19 during this week.