Nigeria’s oil sector and the Q3 shock

BY MICHAEL ABIMBOYE

If Q3 2025 taught us anything, it’s this: Nigeria’s oil sector is in survival mode.

From the state-owned NNPC Limited to big private players like Oando, TotalEnergies, and Eterna, everyone took a hit, and the numbers tell a story that’s bigger than any single company.

Let’s break it down

Oando Plc — one of Nigeria’s leading integrated energy brands posted an operating loss of ₦109.7 billion for the nine months ending September 30, 2025. That’s a major reversal from the profit it recorded last year.
The culprits? Forex volatility, trading losses, and ballooning finance costs.

TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria Plc — usually a strong player downstream recorded a ₦10.23 billion pre-tax loss in Q3 alone, with nine-month losses rising to ₦14.1 billion. Revenue and sales volumes? Both are down, crushed by inflation and weaker consumer demand.

Eterna Plc saw its gross profit crash by almost 67%, dropping from ₦30.13 billion to ₦9.94 billion in the same nine-month period. A bit of foreign exchange gain and smart debt restructuring saved it from deeper losses, but the strain is clear.

Conoil Plc — one of Nigeria’s oldest downstream players recorded a revenue dip of 12%.

Even NNPC Limited, the restructured state oil firm that once seemed untouchable, wasn’t spared. Its profit after tax dropped to ₦216 billion by September 2025, a steep slide that signals just how far the cracks have spread.

Now, here’s the real story

These aren’t failures of leadership or competence. These are symptoms of a system struggling to breathe.

Oando’s ₦109.7 billion loss, TotalEnergies’ ₦14 billion deficit, Eterna’s profit squeeze, and NNPC’s slide all echo the same truth: the problem isn’t the companies, it’s the environment.

No business, no matter how well-run, can win in a system that punishes consistency. Until Nigeria fixes its policy framework, stabilises the naira, and restores oil production reliability, this story will keep repeating itself.

Let’s talk data.

Nigeria’s crude oil output has been stuck around 1.4 million barrels per day through most of 2025, far below its OPEC quota.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) estimates we’ve lost about 93.7 million barrels between January and August 2025, valued at $6.8 billion.

For marketers like Oando and TotalEnergies, that means erratic supply, higher landing costs, and shrinking margins.

And while the fuel subsidy removal was fiscally sound, it left downstream players in limbo, operating without a clear pricing framework while navigating consumer pushback on rising pump prices.

Add to that inconsistent monetary policy, delayed fiscal reforms, and mixed regulatory signals, and you have an industry operating in fog. Long-term planning? It’s become guesswork.

What Q3 2025 revealed isn’t a “bad quarter.” It’s a broken system. The companies haven’t failed; they’ve survived shocks that would’ve crushed many others.

But when the rules keep changing and the ground keeps shifting, survival itself becomes a miracle.

Nigeria’s oil sector isn’t asking for rescue. It’s asking for reform. Because until the system changes, even the strongest players will keep fighting just to stand still.