BY Guest Writer
BY DAVID ALUGA
As the 2023 general election draws nearer, one of the uppermost questions in the minds of many Nigerians is where the next president of the country would come from? In its nearly 22 years of uninterrupted democracy beginning from 1999, the country has conducted six general election and elected four different presidents; two from the northern region and the other two from the southern parts of the country. Since its independence from colonial rule, the politics of the country is largely controlled by ethnic, religious, and regional alliances. These factors have played more important roles in the political landscape than any other. For instance, since 1999 it is an unwritten rule that when the president is from the north, the vice-president must be from the south and vice versa. Also, if the president is Christian then the vice-president must be Muslim. Furthermore, aside from Goodluck Jonathan who was the vice-president sworn in as president after the demise of his boss Umaru Musa Yar’adua, every one of Nigeria’s presidents has been from two of its three major ethnic groups.
Even as the 2023 general election approaches, the elite consensus is yet to decide who and where the next president should come from. However, one of the three major ethnicities keeps clamouring for the opportunity to produce the next president. The Igbo ethnic group has claimed marginalisation in Nigeria’s politics with no person elected into the presidency from the Igbo extraction since 1999. But to understand the possible cause of this political permutation, it is useful to go back to the history of post-independence Nigeria.
In 1960, when Nigeria became independent from British colonial rule, the country had three regions namely; northern, western, and eastern regions reflecting Nigeria’s three major ethnic groups of Hausa-Fulani, Yoruba, and Igbo, respectively. These three regions were administered through a parliamentary system. But in July 1966, a group of young army officers mainly from the eastern region organised the first coup in the country that led to the death of top political leaders the majority of whom were from the other two regions.
A counter-coup spearheaded by northern military officers happened six months later in January 1967 resulting in the death of the then head of state, Major General Johnson Aguiyi-Ironsi, and his replacement with a young officer from the northern region, Yakubu Gowon. The situation quickly deteriorated culminating in the Nigerian civil war (also known as the Biafran war) that lasted from 1967 to 1970.
It began with the eastern region led by Lieutenant-Colonel Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu declaring independence from the rest of the country. The war has been described as one of the worst humanitarian crises of the 20th century with an estimated death toll of about 3 million people, most of whom died from starvation due to the food embargo placed on the eastern region. More than fifty years after this war, the country has not still arrived at closure and heal the wounds of the past. This is particularly evident from the deep-seated cynicism between the Igbos and the rest of the country..
Political commentators keep arguing that Nigeria should go beyond the politics of zoning to that of competency. Others argue that zoning and competency are not mutually exclusive and that competent persons exist in every region of the country. That the concern should be on achieving equity, inclusivity, and justice for marginalised and underrepresented groups. This could be based on the premise that Nigeria’s fragile democracy has not reached the maturity and resilience required to jettison the zoning system. But are there more pertinent issues that Nigerians should be worried about?
Nigeria, a major crude oil producer in Africa is currently faced with serious social dilemmas mainly a failing economy and insecurity. In the last seven years, the country has fallen into two major economic recessions associated with a fall in crude oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, ensuring the security of lives and property was the cardinal campaign promise of the incumbent administration which was first voted into office in 2015.
However, these problems have proved intractable due to the worsening economic and security situations. The Nigerian federal government is presently running on a budget deficit and the recent global terrorism index ranked the country as the third most terrorised country in the world after Afghanistan and Iraq. These crises may be pointers to fundamental issues yet to be resolved. It might be crucial to look beyond these events to unravel the mental models, behavioural structures, and policies that could be sponsoring them.
Present realities show that the country is very divided along religious and ethnic fault lines and the next president must have the courage and capacity to embrace the difficult task of bringing the diverse peoples together. This would be foundational to the success of all other interventions and programmes that the government may introduce. Additionally, there is the need to build confidence and patriotism among the citizens to ameliorate existing underlying distrust. This could be achieved by nurturing a sense of identity that prioritises tolerance, meritocracy, respect for one another, and the belief in the rule of law.
Incessant industrial actions by trade unions of health workers and staff of universities and polytechnics have rendered the two critical sectors for human capital development which are health and education inefficient. The new government could invest massively in health, education, and the creation of economic opportunities to reduce the unprecedented youth underemployment and unemployment. Liberalisation of fiscal, monetary, and economic policies and investment in key infrastructures such as ports, roads, bridges, railways, and electricity would assist to create a conducive business environment for foreign direct investments. Another thing is the automation of bureaucratic processes to enhance transparency, accountability, and good governance.
In the end, whoever becomes the next president of Nigeria must move beyond ethnic, religious, and regional allegiances to build a governance system that works for all Nigerians. It could be true that people only care about where the president comes from when things are not working. As the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping famously stated “it doesn’t matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.”
The government should begin to show commitment to improving the welfare of public servants by increasing the remuneration of especially the armed forces to boost their morale to fight criminals and terrorists. Evidence suggests that the poor salaries of civil servants could be responsible for the high rate of corruption within the government.
The nation is in dire need of someone with the audacity to inspire hope in its people as hope has become a scarce commodity lately. This should be a non-negotiable quality of the incoming president whether s/he is a product of the trade-off between zoning and competency, or a hybrid of both. Nigerians must think beyond sentiments to elect a leader who is capable of delivering the future that they desire.
David Aluga can be reached via david.aluga@hotmail.com
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