Ogun 2027: Race towards Oke Mosan

BY MUYIWA AKINTUNDE

With the political party primaries for the 2027 general election scheduled to commence not earlier than April next year, politicians who are interested in contesting the governorship elections in 28 of the 36 states across the country are already emerging or warming up. Off-cycle elections will be conducted in the eight other states as a result mandate reruns necessitated by judicial interventions, among other factors. Ogun is one of the 28 states that will organise the 2027 governorship election primary anytime from eight months away.

Many aspirants are not taking chances and have already constituted campaign teams, although unofficially, in order not to violate the rules governing the process, while some others continue their internal engagements within their respective political parties, heightening the political undercurrents. Political gladiators across party lines are consulting, forging alliances, and testing the waters. From established power brokers to emerging contenders and fringe aspirants, the race is beginning to take shape.

Like all other states in the country, Ogun has three senatorial districts – central, east, and west – but civilian governors have emerged from only the first two since its creation on 3rd February 1976. Ogun West is populated by the Yewa, Awori, Egun, Ketu, Ohori, and the Anago. Political watchers have attributed the inability of the district to produce a governor to internal divisions and polarisation of its constituent groups. This fragmentation, they argue, has repeatedly weakened the zone’s bargaining power and made it difficult to present a united front in the state’s power equation.

Strong political parties, therefore, do not think it is worth their risks taking chances with a candidate from Ogun West. The situation has not changed and is not likely to in 2027. That leaves Ogun central as perhaps the only option for the 2027 governorship ticket since the incumbent, who will finish the maximum two terms in office in 2027, is from Ogun east.

Religion may be another consideration for the political parties. The incumbent is a Christian and has a Muslim as deputy. It is therefore almost certain that the order of the pair will be reversed for 2027 with a Muslim emerging Governor. This strategy, according to analysts, will maintain the delicate equilibrium of religious interests in the state’s leadership structure.

Another major factor may be the influence of the Presidency. All things being equal, this will tip the scales in favour of a candidate aligned with the centre’s political interests. Also, the influence of the incumbent governor and political godfathers, including former governors Olusegun Osoba (Ogun Central), Gbenga Daniel (Ogun East) and Ibikunle Amosun (Ogun Central), cannot be underestimated. Their endorsements and behind-the-scenes manoeuvres will likely shape alliances and ultimately the outcome of the race.

At the moment, no fewer than 15 aspirants are believed to have shown interest in one way or the other in the governorship race, with a large number in the All Progressives Congress (APC). Since 2011, the party has produced two governors. Senator Ibikunle Amosun was first elected in 2011 on the ticket of the Action Congress of Nigeria, which merged with the Congress for Progressive Change, the All Nigeria Peoples Party, and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance to form APC in February 2013. He was succeeded by the incumbent, Prince Dapo Abiodun.

The roll call of aspirants

Noimot Salako-Oyedele (deputy governor)

She hails from Ota in Ogun west senatorial district. She is believed to be hinging her governorship ambition on the advocacy for the state to produce its first female governor. Her aspiration also aligns with the call for Ogun west to produce the next governor. However, political analysts see her chances as slim.

Senator Olamilekan Adeola, chairman of the senate committee on appropriations

Another aspirant from Ogun west senatorial district, he indeed represents the zone in the senate from 2023, having transferred his seat from Lagos west, which he represented for eight years (2015 to 2023) in the red legislative chamber of the national assembly.

Adeola had identified with Lagos state right from the beginning of his political career. The 56-year-old chartered accountant represented Alimoso constituency II in the Lagos state house of assembly for two terms of eight years from 2003, and was elected into the house of representatives from Alimoso federal constituency in 2011. His strategic positioning makes him one of the strongest forces to watch in the coming race.

But there is a BIG question mark over his ancestry. His political journey in Ogun state has always carried the burden of legitimacy. Questions about his origin continue to trail his ambition. His shifting identity — from Ota to Isaga Orile (Yewa south) to Abeokuta north to Joga Orile in Yewa north and ending up in Ilaro (Yewa south) and later claiming that his mother hails from Kemta in Abeokuta south. This has, however, done little to quieten those who see his ambition as more opportunistic than organic.

He appeared to have been rejected by the two major planks in the state — the Egba (Ogun central) and the Ijebu (Ogun east). At this year’s Lisabi Festival, Yayi was reportedly denied access to the festival venue, a symbolic rebuke by the organisers and the Egba political establishment.

Although he was designated the “Chairman of the Day” at the Ojude Oba Festival last June, Yayi was dropped just hours before the event. Sources within the Awujale’s palace said that the senator’s nomination did not receive the approval of the paramount ruler, who had been away on a routine medical trip.

Analysts say that, with such political baggage, Adeola may not go too far in the race, particularly without an endorsement by the leader of the APC, President Bola Tinubu.

Senator Suhaib Salisu

The senator for Ogun central district, Salisu, previously served as deputy chief of staff to Amosun before their fallout in 2015, and later as chief of staff to Governor Abiodun from 2019 to 2023. Political observers believe Salisu could be a surprise contender for the APC governorship ticket, as he is reportedly one of the incumbent governor’s preferred aspirants.

One of his aides recently told some reporters, “If the party zones the governorship ticket to Ogun central, Salisu may emerge the flagbearer. He has been very loyal to the governor (Abiodun) and has also demonstrated deep knowledge of governance and politics”.

Dimeji Bankole, former speaker of the house of representatives

Bankole hails from the Egba part of Ogun central. The 55-year-old politician was elected to the house of representatives in 2003 under the PDP to represent Abeokuta south federal constituency. He became speaker following the removal of Hon. Patricia Etteh in 2007, but lost his re-election bid in 2011.

In 2019, he ran for governor under the Action Democratic Party before joining the APC. He later declared interest in the 2022 presidential race but stepped down for Tinubu during the party’s primaries.

Ambassador Sarafadeen Tunji Isola, former Nigerian high commissioner to the United Kingdom

A former minister of mines and steel development under the then President Umar Yar’Adua and former high commissioner to the United Kingdom, Isola is heavily banking on the political structure of his godfather, Amosun, to realise his governorship ambition. The former governor is believed to have been lobbying President Tinubu to secure the APC ticket for him.

Kayode Jelili Amusan

He represented Abeokuta north/Obafemi-Owode/Odeda federal constituency at the national assembly from 2003 to 2011, and hails from the Egba part of Ogun Central. He also has ancestral links with Ogun east, which makes him classified as an Ijegba. This is a strong ancestral combination in the state.

Based on the satisfactory record of performance in the house of representatives between 2003 and 2007, he was re-elected by his people to serve a second term, which ran lapsed in 2011. In the green chamber, Amusan served as chairman of various committees and sub-committees.

The 66-year-old, who is a practising Muslim but accommodating of people of other faiths, was an aspirant for Ogun central senatorial seat in 2007 and a two-time gubernatorial aspirant (2011 and 2015).

He is so loved by every sector of the state that he holds the traditional titles of Sobaloju of Egbaland, Akogun of Iwo Gbagura, and Otun Mayegun of Gbagura (all in Ogun Central division), Bobaselu of Joga Orile, Yewa (Ogun West), and Otunba Ogidi Omo of Ijebu-Ilese (Ogun West).

The road is rough and challenging undoubtedly, but whoever survives the twists and turns and is declared candidate of the ruling APC may well begin to acknowledge the greeting: “Your Excellency!!!”.

Akintunde, a public relations consultant and publisher of Breezy News, is of the Amororo Royal Family, Owu-Abeokuta, Ogun state