TheCable

BY JOSHUA OPANIKE

Last week, Professor Yemi Osinbajo announced his intention to run for the number one position in the 2023 general elections. The seven-minute-long recording that was released across many social media platforms bore a message of hope, with the vice-president hitting on core issues of insecurity and poverty, stressing the necessity for a united nation, something he would help achieve. While the vice-president has delivered an impressive speech, the path ahead of him is not easy, and he will need more than his oratory prowess to prevail.

To begin with what many will arguably consider Osinbajo’s biggest hurdle is his former boss and political sponsor, Bola Tinubu. The emergence of Osinbajo as a vice-presidential candidate in the run-up to the 2015 general election on the platform of the then newly formed APC is considered by many due to Tinubu’s benevolence.

What Osinbajo brings isn’t a piece of sophisticated political machinery or a large pocket to bankroll the election campaign. He was simply a choice borne out of the need to appease the tribal and religious cacodemons of the Nigerian political space. But he also comes to compliment Muhammadu Buhari’s supposed inadequacies. Osinbajo became the poster boy for intellectualism and brilliance in the Buhari campaign. But his attributes aside, if Osinbajo could have attained such importance without Tinubu’s backing is as good as anyone’s guess.

After all, many brilliant intellectuals in the country never get the opportunity to make real change. Tinubu has embarked on consultation travels across the country and has played host to several foreign diplomats. He is not leaving any stone unturned in what appears to be his only shot at his lifelong ambition. Is it possible that Osinbajo, in the past seven years, has gathered enough arsenal to trump his erstwhile boss? Will he be able to face Bola Ahmed Tinubu and all he carries head-on?

Similarly, Osinbajo must deal with the issues in his political party, the ruling APC. Just a week earlier, the minister for transport, Rotimi Amaechi, announced his intention to run for president. The recent crisis rocking the APC, which appears to have dwindled, is expected to resurface as significant decisions about the party’s flagbearers are concerned. This is where Osinbajo’s troubles lie. The party is currently in as many factions as it could afford to be, and the integrity of the party’s machinery, which is essential for victory at the polls, is threatened.

While all the aspirants from the APC claimed to have received Buhari’s blessings, the president keeps his cards regarding his choice close to his chest. While the president may have successfully installed a party chairperson of his will, an attempt at handpicking a presidential candidate may be met with stiffer opposition and may even be the end of the ruling party. Osinbajo does not only have to win the party’s ticket. He would ensure that the party’s structure remains intact after the primaries or consensus selection process.

Beyond the party is the cabal. Osinbajo went against a group of the president’s closest associates in Aso Rock when he was acting president the first time the president was away. With subsequent travels by the president, Osinbajo was never put in charge. However, the constitutional verdict on the act is blurry. What is clear is that this group has ensured that Osinbajo remained backstage for the majority of the Buhari presidency.

Most of Osinbajo’s recognisable public role in government is about condolence visits and photo op events. How he plans to go against the powerful forces behind the government in all of their glories is anyone’s guess.

Perhaps most importantly is how under ideal conditions, Osinbajo would have to prove to the citizenry his ability to deal with the nation’s barrage of problems. Osinbajo is chair of an economic team that has presided over dwindling financial situations and whose supposed efforts at alleviating poverty are not yielding apparent results.

He had also sat in federal executive committee meetings where the issues he mentioned in his manifesto were supposedly being addressed. What would he offer that he didn’t have the chance to provide in seven years? Indeed, an Osinbajo candidacy will be a difficult sell, just like any candidacy from the Buhari cabinet would.
Before the general election, machinations and scheming would be in top gear, and the man who will sit in the Aso Rock Villa would have to do more than talk.

Joshua Opanike is a fourth-year medical student in south-west Nigeria.