Osun 2026: An extensive look at APC’s preparations and the battle against incumbent

As the political thermometer begins to rise in Osun State ahead of the 2026 governorship election, the All Progressives Congress (APC) finds itself at a critical crossroads. With the governorship seat currently occupied by the increasingly popular Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the APC must field not just a candidate, but a political force capable of igniting grassroots support, uniting internal factions, and swaying the undecided middle class voters.

The 2026 Osun Governorship Election is not just about retaining or gaining power. It’s a referendum on past leaderships, a test of grassroots engagement, and a symbolic battle in the larger Southwest political narrative. For the APC, it’s a must-win to prove it remains relevant in the region and to secure President Bola Tinubu’s political interests ahead of 2027.

For the PDP, it’s a chance to consolidate its hold and promote a populist governance style that has resonated with the common people.

The incumbent, Governor Ademola Adeleke, is not just dancing his way through politics anymore. His administration has shown signs of strategic focus, especially in civil service reforms, infrastructure development, and prompt salary payments.

His “people-first” approach has won him loyalty among civil servants and informal voters.

Thus, for APC to unseat Adeleke, it must present a candidate with the right blend of grassroots credibility, political intelligence, technocratic competence, and geographic advantage

The APC boasts a pool of aspirants with varied backgrounds, strengths, and weaknesses. This article offers an analysis of the preparedness, acceptability, and electability of each aspirant, and concludes with a comparative assessment of the three most potent APC contenders against the incumbent governor.

THE APC ASPIRANTS: STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES & RANKING

1. Kunle Rasheed Adegoke (K-RAD)

Profession: Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN)
Political Rating: ★★★★☆ (4/5)

K-RAD is no stranger to the political terrain of Osun. A cerebral and highly organized aspirant, his 2018 campaign was marked by statewide tours and a policy-driven manifesto. Though he lost the primary to former Governor Gboyega Oyetola, many adjudged him as the most prepared candidate of that cycle.

K-RAD is a true son of the soil. His Osogbo origin grants him not just symbolic relevance but electoral advantage, especially if voter turnout is optimized.

Strengths:
Widely respected for his intellect and grassroots engagements.

Clear ideological positioning and solid policy framework.

Strong appeal among youth, technocrats, and professionals.

Legal and administrative experience at the national level of the party.

Challenges:
May not have the full backing of powerful political godfathers at the moment.

Could face resistance from entrenched party figures still loyal to other candidates.

2. Senator Iyiola Omisore

Profession: Engineer, former Deputy Governor, ex-Senator
Political Rating: ★★☆☆☆ (2.5/5)

Omisore’s long history in Osun politics is both a blessing and a burden. He is well known and experienced, but his tenure as APC National Secretary ended in controversy, and his reputation has taken hits within the party.

Strengths:
Vast political network and deep knowledge of Osun’s power dynamics.

Access to national political actors.

Challenges:
Trust deficit within APC following his divisive role as National Secretary.

Perception as a political merchant may turn off new voters and party loyalists alike.

 

3. Omooba Dotun Babayemi

Profession: Technocrat and former PDP Governorship Aspirant
Political Rating: ★★★★☆ (3.5/5)

Babayemi’s entrance into APC after a high-profile defection from PDP has changed the political arithmetic. A respected technocrat with significant grassroots appeal, his movement caused what many described as a mini-tsunami within Osun politics.

Strengths:
Cross-party appeal; retains popularity among former PDP supporters.

Seen as fresh, focused, and issue-driven.

Challenges:
May be treated as a “newcomer” by APC hierarchy.

Will need to navigate complex internal power structures of APC to secure the ticket.

4. Bola Oyebamiji

Profession: Former Commissioner for Finance, MD of NIWA
Political Rating: ★★☆☆☆ (2.5/5)

This is his first real test at contesting for elective office. His association with former governor Oyetola, however, casts a long shadow, especially as many believe Oyetola underperformed and was politically shielded by Tinubu.

Strengths:
Access to resources and influential backers within the party.

Financial technocrat credentials may appeal to the elite.

Challenges:
Seen largely as a proxy of Oyetola, who lost political goodwill after 2022.

Faces tough competition from political giants in Osun West.

5. Senator Ajibola Basiru (SRJ)

Profession: Lawyer, National Secretary of APC
Political Rating: ★★☆☆☆ (2/5)

As the current National Secretary of APC, Basiru wields influence at the national level. However, he is seen as abrasive and disconnected from grassroots realities.

Strengths:
Close to APC leadership and enjoys establishment support.

Basiru is from Osogbo which commands huge votes.

Challenges:
Widely perceived as arrogant, with strained relationships among party youths and traditional rulers.

Faces image crisis that could deter swing voters.

6. Senator Jide Omoworare

Profession: Lawyer, ex-Senator
Political Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ (1.5/5)

Omoworare’s name surfaces often in elite circles, but not as a serious contender. He is regarded more as a political elder statesman than an active gubernatorial aspirant.

Strengths:

Experience in federal government and lawmaking.

Challenges:

Lacks grassroots support.

Seen as too passive to mount a serious challenge.

7. Benedict Alabi

Profession: Businessman, ex-Deputy Governor
Political Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ (1/5)

Alabi has not been able to shake off the shadow of Oyetola’s defeat. He lacks visible political machinery or a known ideological platform.

Strengths:
Former deputy governor status may attract some attention.

Challenges:

Weak grassroots appeal and no known constituency of support.

Seen as a political lightweight within APC.

 

HEAD-TO-HEAD: ADELEKE VS APC’S STRONGEST THREE

Based on popularity, grassroots reach, and current momentum, the three top contenders from APC are:

1. Kunle Rasheed Adegoke (K-RAD)

2. Omooba Dotun Babayemi

3. Bola Oyebamiji

Now, how do they fare against Governor Ademola Adeleke?

1. ADELEKE vs KUNLE RASHEED ADEGOKE

Likelihood of Victory: 51% Adeleke – 49% K-RAD

A K-RAD vs Adeleke contest would be highly competitive. K-RAD’s grassroots groundwork, clarity of vision, and reputation could give Adeleke a run for his popularity. However, Adeleke’s incumbency advantage, civil service goodwill, and ongoing infrastructural achievements currently tilt the scale in his favor.

X-Factor: K-RAD must gain significant party backing and mobilize non-partisan swing voters to outpace Adeleke’s momentum.

2. ADELEKE vs OMOOBA DOTUN BABAYEMI

Likelihood of Victory: 52% Adeleke – 48% Babayemi

This could be the most unpredictable face-off. Babayemi’s defection from PDP to APC means he could fracture Adeleke’s support base. His technocratic image and populist outreach may appeal across party lines.

X-Factor: Internal APC politics may frustrate his emergence unless there’s a unified consensus. If he secures the APC ticket without rancour, he stands an even chance.

3. ADELEKE vs BOLA OYEBAMJI

Likelihood of Victory: 65% Adeleke – 35% Oyebamiji

This contest would likely be the easiest for Adeleke. Oyebamiji’s association with Oyetola, poor grassroots visibility, and intra-zone rivalries put him at a disadvantage. Adeleke’s charisma and performance are likely to dwarf Oyebamiji’s appeal, except significant federal might is deployed.

X-Factor: Oyebamiji would need an Oyetola-Tinubu combo firepower to stand a real chance.

FINAL THOUGHTS: THE BATTLE FOR OSUN

While APC remains a potent political force in Osun, its greatest challenge ahead of 2026 is unity and credibility. The choice of candidate must be driven by electoral viability, not loyalty to past leaders. Kunle Rasheed Adegoke and Dotun Babayemi represent APC’s best shots at regaining the state.

However, Governor Ademola Adeleke remains the man to beat; not because of raw political maneuvering, but due to visible governance impact and a personal connection with the people. The APC’s road to Abere House in 2026 must begin with an honest appraisal of its internal dynamics and a break from imposed candidacies.

The election will not be a fight of money or muscle alone, it will be a battle for the soul and future direction of the state.

For the APC to take back Osun in 2026, the party must avoid political nostalgia and pick a candidate based on competence, acceptability, and independence. The electorate is more discerning than ever.

Osun 2026 will not be decided by propaganda or personal attacks, but by trust, delivery, and relatability.

Toooki is a public analyst, media consultant and public relations expert

Views expressed by contributors are strictly personal and not of TheCable.