Osun 2026: Why the right candidate matters more than ever

Politics, they say, is local. But in Osun State, come 2026, politics will be personal, national, strategic, and deeply symbolic.

For President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the gubernatorial election in Osun is not just another item on Nigeria’s political calendar. It’s a defining battle in his legacy war chest and a litmus test for his second-term ambition in 2027.

Osun: More Than Just a Dot on the Map
Osun isn’t just any state. It is ancestral territory. President Tinubu hails from Iragbiji, a town nestled in the heart of the state. That alone transforms Osun into political sacred ground. In Yoruba culture, the adage “Ile laa wo ká tó kè so r’òde”, “you look at your home before dressing up to go out”, isn’t just wise counsel, it’s a moral compass. A man who can’t manage his own house shouldn’t be asking to manage a nation.

The sting of losing Osun to Atiku Abubakar in the 2023 presidential election still lingers like palm oil on white linen. Losing it again in 2026 would be more than an embarrassment. It would be a strategic blunder and a fatal dent in the myth of the Jagaban Borgu, the architect of modern Nigerian progressive politics.

Why Chemistry with Tinubu Is No Longer Optional
Let me be blunt: the next Osun governor must have good political chemistry with President Tinubu. This is not about sycophancy or photo ops. It’s about shared vision, alignment of priorities, and a clear understanding of how to leverage federal power for state progress.

President Tinubu’s influence in the APC and at the federal level is unmatched. Governors with a working relationship with him have reaped massive rewards. Kaduna’s Governor Uba Sani is a shining example, publicly acknowledging unprecedented federal support under Tinubu’s administration. Infrastructure projects, debt reliefs, agriculture interventions, and policy flexibility are all on the table for those aligned with the centre.

A disconnected governor in Osun, however competent, would risk isolating the state from these benefits. It’s like being married to a chef and refusing to eat dinner, you’ll go hungry while the pots boil.

Stabilising the APC’s South-West Base
The APC is walking a political tightrope in the South-West. Lagos, Tinubu’s old stronghold, is increasingly unpredictable, especially with Obimentalisn of 2023. Oyo has proven to be a swinging gate. Ogun is a cautious ally. Ekiti, tentative. Osun? Already lost once and now drifting dangerously between competing interests and factions.

If Tinubu wants to maintain a united and energized South-West base in 2027, Osun must return to the fold in 2026. Winning the state is not just a numeric gain, it’s a message. A message that the “owner of the game” still has control of the board. A message that the APC is alive and coherent in the region that birthed its national rise.

A loss in Osun in 2026 would embolden dissenters within the APC and energize opposition elements across Yorubaland. It would paint the president as a leader losing grip of his own backyard just a year before a re-election fight. The political cost would be too steep to ignore.

Culture, Optics, and the Power of Ancestry
Tinubu has always understood the power of symbolism. His engagement with traditional rulers, his embrace of cultural heritage, and his commitment to regional balancing are not just political strategies; they are tools of legitimacy.

Osun, home to the Ooni of Ife, the Ataoja of Osogbo, and the Timi of Ede, Akinrun of Ikirun, is rich in royal influence and ancestral pride. A governor who embodies the values of this cultural bedrock while aligning with Tinubu’s political vision can create a synergy that benefits both the state and the presidency.

A hostile or independent-minded governor, however, could provoke cultural dissonance, weaken trust, and isolate Osun from both federal affection and regional coherence.

Economic Stakes: Osun Can’t Be Left Behind
Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda is not just about talking points; it’s about delivery. His administration is pushing hard on agriculture, infrastructure, mineral development, energy transition (CNG), and digital transformation.

Osun has the land, resources, and manpower to benefit from this agenda. But only a governor with direct access to the Villa, credibility in APC power circles, and proven loyalty can unlock these opportunities. Otherwise, Osun could become a political orphan; visible on the map, invisible in the budget.

Choosing the Right Candidate: Not Just Any Politician Will Do
Among those who have declared interest in the 2026 Osun governorship race, two or three candidates stand out, not just in competence, but in strategic positioning to deliver the state back into APC’s hands and create a productive relationship with the presidency.

One of them, in particular, intelligent, pragmatic, and with deep roots in a vote-rich zone of the state, offers the best of both worlds. He comes from a region that consistently delivers strong numbers in gubernatorial and presidential elections. He understands Osun’s delicate political terrain and has shown a rare ability to bridge party divides and speak to local concerns while thinking nationally.

This kind of candidate doesn’t just run campaigns; he builds alliances. He understands that you don’t win Osun on Twitter, you win it on the field, in markets, mosques, churches, farm settlements, and with the silent influencers who carry village politics on their backs.

In the theatre of Nigerian politics, some battles are rehearsals; others are real. Osun 2026 is real. It’s the prelude to the 2027 presidential opera, and President Tinubu must choose his cast wisely.

He needs a governor who not only wins elections but governs with him, not around him, not against him. A governor who understands that Osun’s progress and Tinubu’s legacy are not mutually exclusive.

Because if he loses Osun again, the message in 2027 will be deafening: “He couldn’t win his ancestral home, how can he win the nation?”

But if he wins Osun decisively, with the right candidate leading the charge, then the narrative becomes one of resurgence, control, and a reawakened South-West.

In Nigerian politics, narrative is everything.

Tooki is a founder/editor, communication strategist and public relations expert