#OsunDecides: Six talking points as Adeleke dances to victory

Adeleke whose campaign was hugely boosted by the presence of his award-winning singer nephew, David Adeleke, popularly known as Davido, polled 403, 371 winning in 17 out of the 30 local government areas of the state, while the incumbent governor, Gboyega Isiaka Oyetola, polled 375,027 winning in the remaining 13. None of the 13 other contestants won in any local government. Below are the major talking points.

Inability of APC to manage electoral success

All Progressives Congress (APC) needs to go for, at least, a crass course on capacity-building for success, not crisis, management. Riding on the crest of a wave of popular rage against the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in 2015, all manners of character – call them “strange bedfellows”, if you like, came together for the sole purpose of getting rid of the ruling party, and taking control of the government machinery. They benefitted from the concomitant electoral windfall. They, afterwards, have an exaggerated sense of political invincibility, and indispensability, erroneously believing that they can do and undo, without suffering any backlash. That played out in 2011, when Ayo Fayose, reportedly, requested to be compensated with a senatorial ticket on the platform of ACN, after having supported the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in regaining the mandate of Dr. Kayode Fayemi, from the beneficiary of his (Fayose’s) “illegal impeachment”, Engr. Segun Oni. He was denied the ticket, and that urge for vengeance galvanised him into contesting the governorship in 2014, on the platform of PDP against Fayemi. He did and won. That served as a bitter political lesson for the party in Ekiti State. ACN, after it’s metamorphosed into All Progressives Congress (APC) through the 2013/14 meager would later regain power, when Fayemi in his second coming defeated Professor Olushola Eleka of PDP in 2018.

You’d be seriously misled, if you think that the APC had learnt a lesson from its progenitor’s experience. When a former governor of Osun state and a sitting senator on the platform of APC, Alhaji Isiaka Adeleke, died in April 2017, his younger brother, Ademola (the governor-elect) requested that the family be compensated with the ticket to run for the bye-election. But the APC, a party that was gradually becoming arrogant, power-drunk and complacent, flatly turned down the request. I know many would argue that, this is democracy and not monarchy, and that the party ticket must not be hereditary. Valid as the argument may sound, one cannot throw away the fact that, on account of the sterling qualities of the deceased former governor, the Adeleke family is very popular with the people of Osun state, especially in their place of birth, Ede – a community with a substantial voting population. And that should have been factored in by the party’s honchos, but they never did. The opposition PDP, who were waiting to pounce on that political “own goal”, grabbed the opportunity, by offering their ticket to the younger Adeleke. He ran and won the senatorial race. After just a year at the Red chamber, he threw his hat into the ring for the governorship in 2018. He lost narrowly in a very controversial circumstance. Thanks to “The Orolu magic”. Those who monitored the election would understand what happened in Orolu LGA. That experience, coupled with the horrible performance of APC, both at the national and states levels, over the past few years, aided greatly, the victory of Ademola Adeleke on Saturday.

Avoidable war of internecine

The avoidable war of internecine within the party, involving a faction loyal to the immediate past governor, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, and the other, loyal to Governor Oyetola, stemming from the party’s primary election, weakened the party internally, thereby, making the job much easier than expected for PDP to coast to victory. Aregbesola was not in the state for the election, and by implication, did not even participate in voting on the election day, according to a report.

His preferred aspirant lost to the incumbent at the primary election, in a very controversial circumstance, and it generated a great deal of rancour between party members who are loyal to Aregbesola, and those who are loyal to Oyetola. That is symptomatic of the dearth of internal democracy within the party. It is one of the legacies of Mai Mala Buni’s rancour-ravaged tenure as the chairman, APC caretaker and extraordinary convention planning committee (CECPC). Many a stakeholder were excluded in a not-so-deft political move – a situation which left many disgruntled. Abdullahi Adamu-led reconciliation committee, did less than reconciling the warring factions, not only in Osun, but also, in other states. The gaffe reverberated from Kwara State, Zamfara, Benue, Akwa-Ibom, Kano, Kebbi, Imo, just to mention but a few. The party, at the national level, seems to have forgotten that, every politics is local. Therefore, local peculiarities can only be ignored at anybody’s peril. How far they go in appeasing, and reintegrating, those who were disgruntled in to the fold would go a long way in determining how well they’d fare in the next general election that is about seven months away. Osun is just a symptom. An early warning signal.

People of Osun punish non-performance

Another talking point is that, the result of the election appears to be a reflection of the people of Osun’s rejection of non-performance that APC, (with the exception of states like Borno, Kaduna and perhaps, Ebonyi), has come to represent. It was obvious, during the governorship debate hosted by Channels TV, about a week to the election. Ideally, one would expect the incumbent to base his campaign on the plethora of projects he’s been able to execute in the last four years. But there was nothing inspiring about the things he reeled out as being his achievements. This, if you ask me, is one of the most alluring beauties of democracy. People reserve the right to choose another person, whenever they feel unsatisfied with the performance of an incumbent. By that, nobody treats with levity, the yearnings, and aspirations of the people who are the eternal custodians of the popular sovereignty. A performing governor would not be needing a “Zah Zuu Zeh” on the podium during campaign, to convince the electorates on the need to return him for a second term.

Vote-buying made a grand appearance

Once again vote-buying ensured, nobody, not YIAGA, or any civil society organisation; not even ICPC, EFCC, SSS or the police with heavy presence, could relegate it to the background. Expectedly, though disappointingly, some voters despite public advocacies of the civil society organisations, still could not resist the urge for immediate gratification, as they, reportedly, mortgaged the next four years of their lives and those of their children, for a pittance. It was also a case of a spender being outspent. But maybe, it’s high time we considered imposing value-added tax (VAT) on those buying votes, just like it’s becoming more appealing to advise the government to impose tax on kidnappers’ ransom. Pardon the digression.

Power of incumbency counts for nothing

There was this erroneous assumption that the election would be a stroll in the pack for Governor Oyetola, on account of his incumbency, but it never happened.

Ideally, the wind behind the sail of an incumbent, going into an election should be that, he showcases his achievements, during campaign, making them issues on which the campaign is based. It is a luxury that is beyond the reach of the opposition party, and it works greatly in favour of the former, to the disadvantage of the latter. The opposition only have to shop for policy failures of the administration, with which to sway the electorates at the poll against the incumbent. Whether or not Oyetola was rejected on account of (non) performance, depends on, who is looking at what. But in this regard, Oyetola who ordinarily should be the custodian of the proverbial “Four Aces”, going into the election, was defeated because incumbency was rendered insignificant, as far as the result declared by INEC was concerned. Perhaps, it was because, he did not want to travel the route of “Taratatatataaaaataaaa political philosophy”.

Days of incumbency-facilitated electoral abracadabra for a ruling party were long gone with Professor Maurice Iwu’s INEC. Under Iwu, the total number of votes cast were usually more than the total number of registered voters. Meanwhile, there has been no time in the history of elections in contemporary Nigeria that, close to 90% voters’ turnout was recorded. I doubt if that is possible in the Western world. In Belgium for instance, where it is an offence under the law, not to vote, they do not record, even, close to 90% voters’ turnout for any election. The highest voters’ turnout ever recorded in an election in that country was the 1978 parliamentary election, with 94.9% voters’ turnout.

But under Maurice Iwu, in most cases, according to results churned out during elections, we recorded more than 100% turnout by voters. Is there anything our “God” cannot do? Most of the castles built in the air by those electoral results were, however, deconstructed at the-then Justice Ayo Salami-led court of appeal. Justice Salami, was made to pay for those landmarks judgment, with, cutting short his career, though. So, for Oyetola, it (power of incumbency) counted for nothing, last Saturday. After all, the ruling APC set the tone in 2015 presidential election in which, against the run of play (apologies to Olusegun Adeniyi), General Muhammadu Buhari defeated the then incumbent, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan. So, any non-performing governor banking on power of incumbency needs to think twice, going forward.

Kudos to the president and other critical stakeholders

If an incumbent could be so roundly defeated, then, some critical stakeholders like the electorates, INEC, President Muhammadu Buhari, the security agencies, the civil society organisations (CSOs) and to some extent, the political parties deserve some commendation. This is especially so with the president in whose hands lie the power of “life and death”, who could have, at the mere snapping of fingers, could stand the will of the people on its head.

It shows that, interference in the process, (by maybe, the presidency, or manipulation by INEC officials), if any, was very minimal. That is a manifestation of one of the good sides of president Buhari’s aloofness, to the electoral processes. INEC has once again shown that it has the capacity and the will to give Nigerians a free, fair, transparent, and credible election, come 2023 and beyond.

The minimal security issue recorded does no arm, either, to the reputation of our security agents (military and paramilitary). The CSOs too must be commended, for their relentless advocacies, before, during and after the election.

I shall not forget my primary constituency, which the press. The professionalism on display, in the balanced reportage of the election, was top-notch. It is unfortunate that, some people always mistake glorified rumour mongers who have smartphones and access to data service, with social media accounts for journalists. That is far from it. To the discerning minds, that touch of professionalism would always distinguish the works of a journalist from those of the quacks.

As Adeleke dances his way into the Osun state government house in Abeere, whether he has something to offer, on account of his relatively inferior resume and his outing during the campaign, is a topic for another day. But the message has been sent. “If you do anyhow, you see anyhow”. Your return for a second term is dependent on whether you have met the yearnings, and aspiration of the people, after each of the four-year terms.

I learnt there is still a pre-election case, pending in the court, challenging the legality of the primary election that produced Senator Adeleke as the PDP candidate. Whether he is sworn-in depends on the outcome of the case. But before then, let me send a tentative congratulatory message to Senator Adeleke, on his victory at the poll.

Abubakar writes from Ilorin. He can be reached via 08051388285 or marxbayour@gmail.com