Report: Manufacturing sector lost N1.2trn in four years but recovering under Tinubu

Nigeria’s manufacturing sector lost about N1.2 trillion in four years (between 2019 and 2023), according to a report by Quartus Economics.

The report, titled ‘Inside Nigeria’s Quiet Recovery‘, analysed the country’s economy following the recent gross domestic product (GDP) rebasing exercise of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The document also captured the economy’s recovery (which began in 2024) from the combined adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the naira redesign policy.

Quartus Economics said in 2024 alone, the economy expanded by nearly 4.1 percent year-on-year (Y0Y).

But between 2019 and 2023 — described as the years of stall — the research company said both the agriculture and services sectors struggled and “failed to keep pace with population growth while manufacturing declined sharply”.

“Between 2019 and 2023, agriculture grew at 11% and services at only 3%, while the manufacturing sector declined by 21%,” the report reads.

“Between 2019 and 2023, Nigeria shed over N1.2 trillion naira in manufacturing GDP.

“During the years of stall, more than half of Nigeria’s industry categories (26 out of 46) declined in value while nearly 20% (9/46) were in slow-growth mode relative to 2019. By the end of 2024, however, only 7 industry groups remained in decline.”

The report said the four-year loss in manufacturing GDP was offset by a marginal 1.19 percent YoY expansion in 2024, equivalent to N207 billion.

MANUFACTURING SUBSECTORS THAT DROVE THE REBOUND

The report also identified subsectors in the manufacturing industry that propelled growth in 2024.

According to Quartus, chemical & pharmaceutical products expanded by N33.9 billion or 2.37 percent, followed by food, beverage & tobacco at N81.5 billion or 2.50 percent.

Other subsectors are non-metallic products (N15.5 billion or 1.72 percent), motor vehicles & assembly (N1.29 billion or 1.27 percent), and basic metal (N3.33 billion or 0.62 percent).

TEXTILES, CEMENT, OIL REFINING STILL IN RED

But despite the overall rebound in 2024, the report noted that some sectors in the manufacturing industry are still underperforming.

For instance, Quartus Economics said the textile, apparel, and footwear (TAF) sector fell by N72 billion or 1.58 percent, while oil refining suffered a massive contraction of 14.67 percent or N1.7 billion.

Other lagging segments include pulp & paper, which saw a marginal recovery of N1.23 billion (0.44 percent), while electrical & electronics inched up also by 1.27 percent.

In July, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the country’s first quarter (Q1) 2025 GDP growth rate, which stood at 3.13 percent after the rebasing — higher than the 2.27 percent recorded in Q1 of 2024.

The NBS said the performance of the economy in the period reviewed was driven mainly by the services sector, which recorded a growth rate of 4.33 percent and contributed 57.5 percent to the aggregate GDP, relative to the 21.08 percent contributed by the sector.

Commenting on the data, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) had said the rebased GDP showed that the industrial sector was underperforming.

The association asked the federal government to prioritise manufacturing and industrialisation to reflect the real economic situation and gains of the country’s rebased GDP.