Reps pass MTEF, retain $64 per barrel oil benchmark — but senate approves $60

The house of representatives has passed the 2026-2028 medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF) and the fiscal strategy paper (FSP).

The lower legislative chamber approved the MTEF during Thursday’s plenary, after James Faleke, chairman of the committee on finance, moved a motion for the consideration of the report.

The house endorsed the projected crude oil benchmark prices of $64.85, $64.3, and $65.5 per barrel for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively.

On Tuesday, the senate passed the MTEF but approved a downward review of the crude oil benchmark price for 2026 to $60 per barrel, from $64.85.

OIL PRODUCTION TARGETS, EXCHANGE RATE, INFLATION, GDP RATE

The green chamber retained the projected domestic crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day (mbpd), 1.88 mbpd, and 1.92 mbpd for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively.

The house also approved a projected exchange rate of N1,512, N1,432.15, and N1,383.18 for the 2026-2028 fiscal year.

This, the lawmakers said, aligned with the central bank’s policy to stabilise the naira and promote effective fiscal and monetary policy coordination.

On inflation rate projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028, the legislators adopted 16.5 percent, 13 percent, and 9 percent, respectively.

The estimates were based on “the commitment of the nation’s monetary policy authority to moderate inflationary pressure”. 

The house approved GDP growth rate projections of 4.68 percent, 5.96 percent and 7.9 percent for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, in anticipation of tax reform gains.

In line with the ongoing economic reforms and the tax Act, the committee recommended that the federal government implement a national scanning policy within the national single window of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), in collaboration with relevant agencies.

This, the panel said, will enhance revenue assurance, improve trade facilitation, reduce leakages, and strengthen transparency and national security.

On fiscal aggregates, the house approved a total federal budget size of N54.46 trillion for 2026.

The figure comprises a retained revenue of N34.33 trillion and new borrowings of N17.88 trillion from domestic and external sources.

Debt service was pegged at N15.52 trillion, while pensions, gratuities and retirees’ benefits were estimated at N1.37 trillion. The framework also includes an overall fiscal deficit of N20.13 trillion.

Lawmakers also endorsed the capital expenditure of N20.13 trillion, statutory transfers of N3.15 trillion, a sinking fund of N388.54 billion and a recurrent non-debt spending of N15.26 trillion.

On Wednesday, the house committee on finance proposed a downward review of the crude oil benchmark price for 2026 from $64.85 to $60 per barrel.

However, Tajudeen Abbas, speaker of the house, queried the committee’s MTEF report, noting that lowering the crude oil benchmark would inevitably affect other variables.

He said the committee made no corresponding adjustments.

Following the issues raised by Abbas, the house stepped down the consideration of the report.

It is uncertain whether the senate and house of representatives will harmonise the variations in the approved MTEF before President Bola Tinubu presents the N54 trillion 2026 budget to the joint session of the national assembly on Friday.