TheCable

Bismarck Rewane, the chief executive officer of Financial Derivatives Company, says the #EndSARS protests that held in October will setback the country’s economic recovery by three months.

Nigeria’s economy is projected to fall into a recession in 2020 and recover in 2021 due to the impact of COVID-19 lockdown and a drop in oil prices.

Speaking at the monthly Lagos Business School’s (LBS) executive breakfast session themed ‘RE: ENDSARS – Class Struggle Versus Ethnic Conflict’, Rewane estimated that about $6 billion worth of imports will be needed to replace the inventory lost to attacks.

The #EndSARS protests were hijacked by hoodlums and this resulted in the destruction and looting of private and government-owned businesses and facilities.

Rewane, who is also a member of President Muhammadu Buhari’s economic advisory council, said the protest was a class struggle of young people who have lost hope of prosperity rather than symptoms of an ethnic conflict as some analysts claim.

“The Nigerian masses have been afflicted with rational ignorance, which has mutated into rational irrationality. The riots may erupt again if nothing is done to address poverty, debt, and low productivity. New investment is necessary and urgently needed to keep hope alive,” he said.

“Based on anecdotal and momentum analysis, our model is projecting an estimated total informal and formal economic loss of approximately $15 billion in 2-3 weeks of mayhem.

“Many traders and stores do not have insurance against civil unrest and commotion. Christmas is fast approaching and they cannot find forex to replace lost inventory. This is in addition to the climbing COVID-19 infection rate.

“At least $6 billion of imports is needed to cover looted, damaged, and burnt inventory.”

Rewane predicted the 2021 budget will be revised to reflect current market realities.

“The budget will be reviewed drastically to accept lower oil prices as normal; OPEC+ will push for further cutbacks on quota; Nigeria’s quota could fall to 1.3mbpd,” he said.

Buhari has presented the N13.08 trillion 2021 budget to the national assembly.