The ‘coup’ that wasn’t and its aftermath

How is it that a routine military exercise turns out to be reported as an attempted Coup d’ etat? Why did the report keep surfacing in the media with updates even when the military authorities denied that no such thing occurred? Whose interest is it served that the Nigerian public is repeatedly told that there was a coup attempt in the country when there is none? Why hasn’t the Minister of Defence come out to unequivocally state the facts to Nigerians in order to slake any further conjectures and speculation on the phantom coup? What are the implications of this dangerous brinkmanship on the nation’s well being going into the future?

With the benefit of hindsight, it is now clear that the way the news of the phantom coup was leaked was intended by the persons who did it to use the incident to achieve less than noble ends.

Yes, some military officers who work in the office of the National Security Adviser were indeed arrested sometime last month for questioning in connection with their outspokenness against the Tinubu administration’s policies. And as a precaution because the authorities could not determine the extent of the involvement of the arrested officers and probably others, the decision was taken that the October 1 Independence day parade which was to take place at Eagles square be cancelled. And indeed, the President was whisked out of Abuja to Lagos where he spent the public holiday and some more days afterward.

But it was some persons who were in the know of the arrests of the military officers and the precautionary security arrangements taken on the president who leaked the story and for good measure gave it the coup spin.

Why did they do that? they did that to convey the impression to Nigerians that some persons were attempted to overthrow the democratic government of President Tinubu. And to add a touch of geo-politics to it sure enough, from the list of those arrested it provided an opportunity to point fingers and say it was the conspiratorial handiwork of people from certain parts of the country who do not wish the present administration well.

As proof that the leaks as well as the spin given to the incident was intended to achieve certain political ends, stories of alleged involvement of opposition political figures and some of them being under watch, kept popping up even after the military authorities emphatically denied and explained that what they had on their hands was not a coup attempt. So, what do we make of all this?

It is most obviously a case of panic stations leading to a state of paranoia. And in this situation, we should expect desperate measures being taken in the coming days and months (Indeed in a move that vindicates this position, president Tinubu has purged the military chiefs and replaced them with new ones). In the coming days we should expect President Tinubu to especially rejig the security people around him most prominently the NSA, and the Defense Ministry. There will most likely be another round of purges in the military and security set up.

But the question is what will all this lead up to? A recourse to actions based on panic and desperation is a recipe for more problems. It makes the government to seek to circle the wagons and to see enemies everywhere. It engenders an atmosphere of distrust and a we-versus- them mentality. The administration seems to be sleep walking into this cul-de-sac with little or no consideration for the need for extenuating positions. And with the power in its hands comes the temptation to take arbitrary and even irrational decisions which will likely not just harm the administration itself but the nation as well.

As Nigerians it should alarm us that this zero-sum game is playing out amid the growing pains of everyday living. Although the government says the economy is improving under its economic reforms about 140 million Nigerians are in poverty according figures from the World Bank.

As the political season inches closer, the government will do well not to allow its paranoia lead it to tip the scales on our democratic march by its desperation for power at all cost. The trajectory of fear and suspicion which pervades the administration is hardly necessary since the constitution and body of laws are there to guarantee political contest and power transition in an organized manner. There is no place in a democracy for entitlement either for an individual or for groups. And because in a democracy, contest for power is determined by guidelines in which ultimately the choice of the people is supreme, the recourse to desperate actions outside the law to secure and retain power comes with consequences that are unfathomable to the nation.

In our historical experience as a nation we have encountered situations where governments in power tended to engage and exploit situations to either deny opponents the political space or restrict their participation in it. Having thus experienced the unpalatable consequences that resulted from such actions, it need not be emphasized that what we are currently going through is leading us to repeat the avoidable actions of the past.

Gadu can be reached via [email protected] and 08035355706 (Texts only)