The prince and his boys

A fire is burning in the political realm due to a flurry of defections. The source of this fire can only be speculated. The last time I checked, speculation is guesswork, and in Nigeria, the more you see or know, the less you understand. Those attributing it directly to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu fall into this category. They have greatly undermined the role of his “boys,” whose relevance hinges on productivity rather than mere activity. If you know the president and how his mind works, you would envision him laughing and taking notes. He can be politically arrogant. I don’t envy his “boys.” Their task is daunting, especially with the “Prince” watching your every move.

Italian philosopher, Niccolò Machiavelli, in his work, “The Prince”, a 16th-century political treatise, confounded readers when he alluded that immoral acts are justifiable if they achieve political glory. He posited that politics has its own rules. Politicians can sometimes be ruthless in this regard. In the 6th chapter of the book, “Conquest by Virtue” he stated that “Princes who rise to power through their skill and resources (their “virtue”) rather than luck tend to have a hard time rising to the top, but once they reach the top, they are very secure in their position. This is because they effectively crush their opponents and earn great respect from everyone else. Because they are strong and more self-sufficient, they have to make fewer compromises.”

Those who know the story of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu would agree with Niccolò Machiavelli that he conquered by virtue. What is the meaning of Emilokan? Who gets away with such political arrogance other than “The Prince”? He did not obtain the seat easily, and as such, some of his actions are viewed as extreme. I had a conversation with a friend, and he was fuming about how the president wants to create a one-party state. I allowed him to ventilate before asking a question that calmed his nerves. I asked if there was no opposition; was it a violation of the Constitution? He has yet to provide an answer. I do not think the aim is to create a one-party state. The “Prince” is too smart for that. I think the aim is to undertake regional realignment to dismantle some myths about numbers in determining political outcomes in the country. This is historical. I stand to be corrected.

In the 7th chapter, (Conquest by Fortune), “when a prince comes to power through luck or the blessings of powerful figures within the regime, he typically has an easy time gaining power but a hard time keeping it thereafter, because his power is dependent on his benefactors’ goodwill. He does not command the loyalty of the armies and officials that maintain his authority, and these can be withdrawn from him at a whim.” This chapter does not relate to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Who was his godfather? Were the powerful figures within the Buhari regime in his favour? How did he secure the APC presidential ticket? What brought about the slogan Emilokan? However, we can see a picture in the 2015 presidential elections. The incumbent wanted “A Breath of Fresh Air”, to free itself from the shackles. But the powers that be wanted “Change” and they effected it.

Let me digress. All politicians are Machiavellians. In recent times, two have been prominent. I don’t know if they are friends, but their penchant for public nuisance is legendary, especially when swimming against the tide. They also share a common trait: they present themselves as saints. You can’t beat them in any argument. However, they forget that they are also politicians. Once the title ‘politician’ is attached to your name, you have automatically signed out of morality. This much was advanced in “The Prince,” where Machiavelli suggested that “politics should be guided by practical considerations rather than traditional ethical principles, as traditional morality might not be suitable for the complexities of political life.”

Surprisingly, today, one of them is busy gallivanting about a political coalition for 2027. He said, “We are trying to offer Nigerians a real alternative — something different from what they have seen before”. And I smiled. I tried to understand what he meant. It sounded like music to my ears. Maybe that was why Bob Geldof, Irish singer-songwriter and political activist said “You can’t trust politicians. It doesn’t matter who makes a political speech. It’s all lies – and it applies to any rock star who wants to make a political speech as well.”

In my opinion, he needs to read chapter six of “The Prince” so he can have some peace. The “Prince” can only make a few compromises with allies. At this stage, he cannot be held to ransom for very obvious reasons. He conquered by virtue and not by fortune. For the other, it’s dicey because he must be careful not to make any wrong move. But his options are limited. The coast is unclear about the platform he should utilize. I can bet it’s tight for him. Anyways, I wish him good luck. I like him though regardless.

I need to say something about politics and politicians. There is always an interest that is not public interest. According to Nikita Khrushchev, a Russian politician who served as the First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in 1963, “Politicians are the same all over. They promise to build a bridge even where there is no river.” This is instructive, and it takes me to chapter 18 of “The Prince”. (In what way princes should keep their word). “A prince is praised for keeping his word. However, in reality, the most cunning princes succeed politically. A prince, therefore, should only keep his word when it suits his purposes, but do his utmost to maintain the illusion that he does keep his word and that he is reliable in that regard.” That is the way of politicians. It is always about when it suits the purpose.

Political maneuvers are akin to football strategies. The “Prince” won’t stay passive amid mounting plots to unseat him. It is a cardinal rule. The recent events in Delta State were a strategic move, and similar actions were recorded earlier and more may follow before the next election. The “boys” are rampaging. In the case of Delta State, I saw one of the “boys” brimming with joy. He has delivered and the “Prince” has taken note. Just like others too numerous to mention. This is just the beginning of what promises to be an interesting race in 2027. This is my opinion.