TheCable

There is muted giggle in the All Progressives Congress (APC) over the failure of Malam Nuhu Ribadu to get the governorship ticket of his new party, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), for the October 11 by-election. His defection from APC and subsequent declaration to run for governorship all appeared to be a well-scripted play to make him governor.

But with over a dozen aspirants jostling for the party’s ticket, it was obvious to everyone that Ribadu was not going to have an easy ride. Not only were the aspirants formidable, they had also openly spoken about resisting the imposition of Ribadu on the party. Suddenly, what looked like a choreographed cake walk for Ribadu became complicated.

There was a way out, it seemed. There would be two governorship elections, after all. The first one ─ a by-election ─ would produce the replacement for the impeached governor, Vice Admiral Murtala Nyako, and serve out his term till May 29, 2015. The second one, to be held in February 2015, would then take over and serve for four years.

It was not that simple, though. If the PDP candidate wins  in October, there is no law barring him from running again in February. It would even be easier ─ he would hardly have to exert himself too much as the incumbent. But of the lot, the acting governor, Hon. Ahmadu Fintiri, was the favourite. Not just that he was until recently the speaker of the house of assembly but having been acting as governor since July, his war chest had become heavier.

It would appear the first strategy of the PDP was to disqualify him and then clear the way for others to be persuaded to work for Ribadu. In fact, the screening committee, led by former deputy senate president, Ibrahim Mantu, ruled that Fintiri could not run because he was to be a midwife of the process. Fintiri was very angry.

Sensing danger, the PDP had to re-strategise, especially since Fintiri had offered what looked like an easy way out ─ he promised not to run in the February 2015 election. At a session with Senate President David Mark, a novel agreement was reached: Adamawa governorship aspirants were grouped into two. Group A would run in the primary for the October 11 by-election while Group B would run in the February 21, 2015 poll.

In Group A were those not from Adamawa central, which has never produced the governor before. In Group B were those from Adamawa central, which will now produce the PDP candidate for the 2015 election. Ribadu was in Group B and he subsequently announced that he was withdrawing from the October race.

But the word in town is that the PDP tricked Ribadu into dumping APC and then jilted him, knowing that it was not possible for him to pick the ticket. Of course, it does not appear rational that the PDP would trick him and jilt him ─ this would be a bad signal to other impending defectors from APC and other parties who could feel discouraged that promises would not be kept.

Tricked into submission?

Many political analysts are wondering why Ribadu would leave the APC if there were no assurances of a ticket from the PDP. If assurances were given, could it not be that Ribadu has now been let down ─ jilted, if you will? What would he do now? How would he cope with the shame of being lured into nothingness?

The jest has begun already. Kano Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso took pot shots at Ribadu on Wednesday, saying he sympathised with the former EFCC chairman on the ridicule that PDP has subjected him to. “After he left the APC for the PDP, his new party did not find him worthy of its gubernatorial ticket. I am sure the PDP stakeholders in Adamawa are now laughing at him. We sympathise with him,” he said.

The failure of Ribadu to pick the ticket could be attributed to three factors. One, he is a newcomer in politics. Two, he is a new comer in PDP. Three, PDP does not want to lose the Adamawa election.

As a new comer to politics, he does not have the political support base that can deliver votes to him. Yes, he has been in politics since 2010. He even contested in the 2011 presidential election. But the reality is that he is not a seasoned politician. He does not yet have the machinery to win an election. He has therefore not developed the sort of structure that can get him a party’s ticket.

Worse still, he is new to the PDP. Those who have been in the party for years would feel frustrated and short-changed that someone just came from nowhere and grabbed the party’s ticket. Many of them have been nursing governorship ambition for a long time. Some have run and lost in the past. Of all the aspirants, Ribadu has the least slice of influence in the party.

Above all, PDP does not want to lose the Adamawa by-election. After gaining Ekiti and dispensing of Nyako in Adamawa, the party is eager to make more gains, especially as it failed to unseat APC in Nasarawa and Osun. Ribadu’s backers could have forced their way through, disqualified Fintiri, forced other aspirants to step down for Ribadu and then proclaimed the retired assistant inspector general of police the candidate.

But there is something called anti-party. A miscalculated act of imposing Ribadu on the party would have united the powerful forces against him. Fintiri, who was initially disqualified, was so angry when he left the venue of the screening that he walked past his car. What he would have used his power of incumbency to do against Ribadu is better left to the imagination.

Ahmed Gulak, former presidential adviser, is so against Ribadu that he would stop at nothing to stop him. Markus Gundiri, who contested for the governorship in 2011 on the ticket of Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), is a strong politician with a large support base among the Christians in the state. Some of his supporters still believe he won the election but that PDP manipulated the results in favour of Nyako. Awwal Tukur, son of former PDP national chairman, has also been nursing a governorship ambition. Buba Marwa, former governor of Lagos state, also ran in the 2011 election and defected to PDP when Nyako took over the APC structure.

If all these forces were to work against PDP, it would not be pretty for the party in the coming months. It is further complicated that many of the big politicians were in PDP before, left for APC, and returned to PDP in protest against Nyako. They are, therefore, comfortable in both parties and would not find it difficult to return to APC. Somehow, the Group A vs Group B strategy effectively doused tension in the party and nobody is feeling short-changed now. It might have saved the PDP in Adamawa.

Any future for Ribadu?

Where does this leave Ribadu? Is his ambition now out of the window?

Maybe not.

A senior member of the PDP, who spoke with TheCable, said Ribadu “now has some time to build trust and support in the party. The October 11 poll came too early for him”. According to him, the tension in the party ahead of the September 6 primary made it impossible for Ribadu to build any understanding with the other aspirants.

With the zoning of the ticket to Adamawa central for the February election, “Ribadu now has fewer opponents to build trust with”, said the official who said he has sympathy for the former EFCC chairman because he is one of the shining stars of Nigeria.

“No matter the way you look at it, Ribadu is one Nigerian who has goodwill and reputation and no party would not want such a personality to fly its flag,” said the official who declined being named because of the sensitive nature of the politics “in the days ahead”.

A presidential aide, speaking with TheCable shortly after Ribadu withdrew from the race, said he does not have to be a governor despite his defection to the PDP.

“If Ribadu really wants to serve Nigeria, he does not have to be a governor. If PDP forms the next government, as indications clearly show, there will be a lot of opportunities for him to serve. He was doomed in APC in any case,” he said.

Ribadu recently said he was ready to sweep the streets to serve, and this should be an irony: the symbol of his former party is a broom. He has taken his broom along to the PDP and, though he may not end up sweeping the streets, he could yet get the chance to sweep his way to power if all goes well for him in the “Group B” Adamawa governorship race.

And if Kwankwaso ends up not getting the APC presidential ticket after defecting from the PDP, Ribadu may be forced to sympathise with the Kano governor in return.