WHAT NEXT? How does South Africa's point deduction help Eagles' 2026 World Cup bid?

On Monday, the FIFA disciplinary committee issued a ruling that shook up Group C of the CAF’s qualifying tournament for the 2026 World Cup.

After months of anticipation, the panel finally sanctioned South Africa‘s Bafana Bafana for fielding an ineligible player in their qualifiers against Lesotho on 21 March 2025.

Teboho Mokoena featured in the match for South Africa despite a suspension for accumulating two yellow cards in previous qualifiers against Benin and Zimbabwe.

FIFA ruled that South Africa breached the competition rules and their 2-0 victory was overturned. Lesotho was handed the three points and three goals from the game.

The ruling dropped Bafana Bafana to second in the group. The team’s initial 17 points were reduced to 14 points. The Republic of Benin usurped as the group leader with a superior goal difference to Bafana Bafana.

The point deduction also handed the Super Eagles of Nigeria a lifeline, as they are now third in the group, just three points behind South Africa and Benin with two games remaining.

With only the group winner assured an automatic 2026 World Cup ticket, how does the latest FIFA ruling benefit Nigeria in Group C?

EAGLES TRAPPED BY EARLIER FAILURES

The Eagles are on the brink of failing to qualify for consecutive World Cups. The team failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

The 2022 failure lingered, and Nigeria began the qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup with poor form.

The Eagles are grouped against South Africa, the Republic of Benin, Rwanda, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe. Nigeria failed to win any of their first four games. They also lost to Benin.

After eight games so far, the Eagles have only two wins, five draws, and one loss.

IS EAGLES’ FATE IN THEIR HANDS NOW?

With two games remaining, the Eagles find themselves in a perilous position due to their disappointing starts to the qualifiers.

But the FIFA ruling made Nigeria’s World Cup chances less dim. The Eagles, alongside South Africa, Benin, Nigeria, and Rwanda, are now within a realistic distance to finish as the group winner.

In their final two games in October, Nigeria will play Lesotho away and then face Benin at home. The Eagles are condemned to win both games to remain in contention with a potential point accumulation of 17 points. They will have to secure the victories by high margins because it could come down to goal difference at the top of the group.

However, Nigeria’s fate is tied to South Africa’s performance. The Bafana Bafana must lose at least one of their remaining two matches against Zimbabwe and Rwanda, or draw both.

If South Africa get more than three points from their remaining matches, Nigeria will miss out on the automatic ticket regardless of their own results.

PLAYOFF SPOTS OPTION

However, if the Eagles finish second and fall short of the automatic qualification spot, they might still have an opportunity to be one of the four best second-place teams to secure a playoff spot.

The four best runners-up from the nine African qualification groups will compete in a knockout contest, and the winner will advance to the inter-confederation playoff that will determine the final two qualification slots for the 2026 World Cup.

Nigeria will need to secure second in Group C and gather at least 17 points to be in contention. Gabon, Madagascar, DR Congo, and Burkina Faso are the teams occupying the four best second-place teams currently.

How Group C looks after South Africa’s point deduction