Why and how Peter-Rufai ticket may be the political game changer in 2027

My article last week titled ‘’2027: Five gilt-edged reasons for a Peter-Rufai ticket’’ elicited a lot of responses from across the country.

Many found the idea interesting; but a lot more people were puzzled as to how such a ticket could buck the seemingly unstoppable political steamroller that the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) is, led by President Bola Tinubu who is often referred to as the consummate political strategist. Those who hold such views consider that the opposition political parties and figures which include Peter Obi and Nasir El Rufai are currently in disarray; they cannot seem to agree whether to form a coalition to challenge the ruling APC or pursue their political ambitions in their respective parties. Another critical challenge the opposition face is in the event of forming a coalition who among the top political figures will they agree on to lead the coalition and who should be the running mate.

In effect considering all these factors among others which may pan out or not, I admit that my analysis is hypothetical and subject to the interplay of certain empirical developments in the Nigerian polity.

But one thing is certain though; like all battles political battles are not necessarily decided by big profiles and deep pockets. In this country we have witnessed a sitting government with comparatively more massive human, institutional and cash resources at its disposal defeated by a well-coordinated and led opposition. This happened in the 2015 elections when the APC which was a coalition of political parties led by Muhammadu Buhari beat the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) of incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan.

Although in general terms the current political circumstances may not be exactly the same, the scenarios between 2015 and 2027 however run parallel. There is a government in place which is determined to totally capture and snuff out the political opposition in a scorched earth way. The same government has weaponized its economic policies into an instrument of mass impoverishment leading to social insecurity and paralysis.

The clear and present danger is that the administration in its headlong rush to achieve its political aims by all and any means necessary seems impervious to the impending danger to itself and the nation, as well as the fabric of the institutions that under guard it.

The philosophical, spiritual, scientific and political imperative of a Peter-Rufai ticket

Philosophers have long established that human progress is determined by the interplay of forces acting in counter to one another. This is the concept of thesis and antithesis or the union of opposites. The Chinese called it the Ying and Yang. God the almighty provides a vivid illustration of this with Man and Woman coming together to birth a child in the same way that they came to being. There is also day and night. In Science the concept of gravitational force acting to make motion possible is clearly spelt out in Isaac Newton’s third law of motion which posits that action and reaction forces are equal and opposite.

If these concepts seem abstract, we have practical examples of this in the trajectory of our political history to guide us. Since the birth of Nigeria, the political trajectory has always been between the forces of conservatism and progress. The venerable Chief Obafemi Awolowo when asked why he chose to remain in opposition for most of his political life, explained that it was in keeping with the principle of thesis and anti-thesis. His principled opposition to the conservative central government was necessary not just to keep the government in check but also to provide Nigerians with a progressive alternative. In a complex country such as Nigeria is this trajectory of politics has endured over the years and has been responsible for the prevention of full blown dictatorships whether in military or civilian forms.

Now as we are seeing a tendency towards a repudiation of that political trajectory by the manipulative tactics of the ruling APC, the forces of spiritual intervention are acting to impose a philosophical, scientific and political imperative on the Nigerian polity. To act against the APC’s improbable attempt at instituting a one party dictatorship on the country there are two distinct scenarios; a possible political implosion in the country which will engulf the ruling party itself, the opposition as well as the country; or the more palatable option of the opposition parties and figures getting their acts together and in the age old concept of principled political opposition mobilize the Nigerian people and mount a robust challenge to wrest power from the ruling APC thereby saving even the APC itself and the country from this track of political immolation.

Among the opposition figures that are better placed to lead this imperative spiritually, philosophically, scientifically and politically are none other than Peter Obi and Nasir El Rufai.

Why Peter Obi is the counterweight to Tinubu’s political calculations

President Tinubu’s political calculation is to form a southern political bulwark against any potential northern presidential candidate. He also hopes to work to clinch the northern Christian votes whole thereby making an academic issue the northwest and northeast votes where if it comes to the worst he will aim for twenty five per cent votes in each of the states.

In aiming to prevent the emergence of a potential northern presidential candidate in any opposition party and in getting the southern and northern Christian votes, he is probably spot on. He has moved to ensure that the PDP which is the only strong opposition political party where a northern political can hope to emerge is hijacked and embroiled in endless political crises. He is also making moves to ensure that all politically exposed figures and the structures in PDP controlled states in the south defect from the party to his ruling APC. This will not only deny the putative northern presidential candidate the support of the PDP controlled states but more critically the funding assistance to run the presidential race. Additionally, President Tinubu is buoyed up by the fact that generally across the country there is little appetite to vote for a northern presidential candidate presently.

Against any political figure in the country at present whether from the north or south, this is a slam dunk prospect for Tinubu.

But this strategy will not work against Peter Obi.

Peter Obi as a presidential candidate of any political party other than the APC is guaranteed the rock solid support of the five south east states. And by this I am not talking mere votes; I am talking here of the robust mobilization, vigilance in voting and vote protection of IPOBIANs, Monday-stay-at homers, the OMATANS of Onitsha and elsewhere in the South East. There will also be a commensurate global support from diaspora Igbos in many ways.

Just as Muhammadu Buhari was consistently assured and guaranteed of northern support for his consecutive presidential bids, with massive mobilization, Peter Obi will massively take the South East votes.

This in itself will make a huge dent in Tinubu’s southern political calculations. If we add that to the possibility of Obi splitting the South South votes if not winning majority across the zone and his repeating the same feat in Lagos, then the entire Tinubu southern strategy is in serious jeopardy. When we add the possibility of northern Christian votes joining the Obi bandwagon the Tinubu calculation for 2027 will likely hit the rocks.

Nasir El Rufai a strategic choice as Obi’s running mate.

The 2027 presidential race will be one like no other in the country. With the high stakes involved perhaps more than at any other time in the political history of Nigeria, Peter Obi needs a strong running mate with which together they can face the formidable odds the ticket will come up against.

Two names Nasir El Rufai and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso former Governors of Kaduna and Kano states have been mentioned in this regard. For what they will bring and add to the ticket they are both eminently qualified. In terms of votes, Kwankwaso probably has the edge. They both also have the grit, the contacts and for the potentially contentious nature of the 2027 elections against the APC steam roller, both of them can be relied upon not to bring a knife to a gun fight.

But overall, El Rufai has the edge over Kwankwaso due to the fact that as one reader said ‘’El Rufai can be expected to go at the Tinubu political calculations with greater motivation than Kwankwaso’’. If he can be persuaded to join the ticket, El Rufai will welcome indeed relish the prospect of throwing all he has into the game. He will tap and mobilize the latent feelings of discontent against the APC in the North West which incidentally is home to the highest voting population in the country. And additionally El-Rufai could be relied on to help persuade former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to relinquish his presidential ambitions and bring in the North West and North East votes.

Why is Peter-Rufai the potential political game changer in 2027?      

Although the buzz in the country is that the APC has more or less wrapped up the 2027 elections leading some to say there will be no vacancy in Aso Presidential Villa that is too premature a judgement to make. Those who have already signed into the APC political calculations by ditching their political parties and joining the APC may soon regret their hasty and unstrategic political actions.

President Tinubu may enjoy the incumbency factor at present, but his road to winning re-election in 2027 is strewn with so many unknowns. How for instance can he navigate the potential banana peel of the issue with his Vice President which may likely blow up soon and affect the fortunes of the APC. What about the anger and wrath of Nigerians who are groaning under the harsh economic policies of the Tinubu administration and are waiting to show their verdict during the elections?

Peter Obi on the other hand does not have such encumbrances. With the votes he can bring to the table across four geo-political zones he is the most valuable political figure in the ranks of the opposition. He is the one political figure immune from the political machinations of the APC and President Tinubu; he can jump successfully over the southern political stonewall that Tinubu is building against a potential northern candidate. He is the only potential candidate in the country that can split and smash to smithereens the APC’s entire political plans for 2027.

Can Peter Obi avoid the political slugfest of 2027?

Even if he wanted to, he cannot. On a personal level, this is the last chance Peter Obi has to make a political statement. If he lets this slip, he may not have another chance again. On a regional level, Peter Obi carries on his shoulders the hopes of millions of South easterners for reintegration into the Nigerian system and end years of Igbo marginalization in the country. On a collective national level he is the man whom God has chosen and favoured to lead Nigerians out of the brutal economic bondage that the APC and President Tinubu had foisted on us. He is also the one who fortune has favoured to save the country from potential immolation of a rudderless administration.

Philosophically, Peter Obi is the anti-thesis of the present circumstances in the country; he is the Yang to our present Ying; scientifically he is the positive reaction force to the present actions of the APC in the country; politically he is the true manifestation of the positive opposition politics that we have always had in the polity which the APC is trying now to smash.

Were he to be alive today, the late statesman from Arondizuogu, Orlu, Chief Kingsley Ozoumba Mdadiwe would have aptly described as Peter Obi as the barometer of our present political climate.

Spiritually it is probably the divine work of the almighty God to so place Peter Obi at this critical juncture of our country. In the present context of Nigeria he is perhaps the manifestation of the child whose palm kernels were broken by benevolent gods.

Gadu can be reached via [email protected] and 08035355706 (Texts only)