World Bank projects Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4% in 2027

The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 percent in 2027, compared to the 4.2 percent forecasted for 2025.

World Bank said the growth will be driven by services and supported by agriculture and non-oil industry.

Samer Matta, the World Bank’s senior economist for Nigeria, spoke in Abuja at the October 2025 Nigeria Development Update (NDU) themed ‘From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home’.

Matta said inflation is expected to gradually ease but remain elevated, requiring sustained monetary discipline and structural reforms to tackle food prices, the “biggest tax on the poor”.

The senior economist noted that the outlook for Nigeria’s economy remains cautiously optimistic.

WORLD BANK: NIGERIA’S ECONOMY GREW 3.9% IN H1 2025 — UP BY 3.5%

According to the NDU, Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.9 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, up from 3.5 percent in the same period of 2024.

“Growth was driven by strong performance in services and non-oil industries, alongside improvements in oil production and agriculture,” the report said.

“The country’s external position has strengthened, with foreign reserves exceeding $42 billion and the current account surplus rising to 6.1% of GDP, supported by higher non-oil exports and lower oil imports.

“On the fiscal side, despite lower oil prices, the federal deficit is projected at 2.6% of GDP in 2025, broadly unchanged from 2024, while public debt is expected to decline for the first time in over a decade — from 42.9% to 39.8% of GDP.”

However, the report cautioned that the macroeconomic gains have yet to translate into tangible improvements in people’s lives, adding that many households continue to face hardship, with poverty and food insecurity remaining high.

The NDU noted that Nigeria’s poor households, who spend up to 70 percent of their income on food, have seen the cost of a basic food basket rise fivefold between 2019 and 2024, highlighting the need for continued efforts to reduce inflation and support the vulnerable.

WORLD BANK SAYS TACKLING FOOD INFLATION BY REMOVING TRADE BARRIERS WILL BOOST WELFARE

The World Bank’s report identified three urgent priorities to bridge the gap between macroeconomic progress and improved welfare.

The priorities include tackling food inflation by removing trade barriers and addressing structural bottlenecks, improving public spending efficiency through fiscal transparency and discipline, and expanding social protection for the ultra-poor.

“Tackling food inflation by removing trade barriers such as import bans and excessive duties, while addressing structural bottlenecks in seeds, input supply, security, logistics, and infrastructure (including transport, power, storage, and cold chains),” the NDU noted.

“Improving the efficiency of public spending through greater fiscal transparency, stronger discipline in Federation Account (FAAC) deductions, and a national pact to align fiscal policy with development objectives, especially human capital investments.

“Expanding and institutionalising social protection, including regular, domestically financed cash transfers for the ultra-poor and a shock-responsive safety net system to help households manage crises.”

On his part, Mathew Verghis, the World Bank country director for Nigeria, said the Nigerian government has taken bold steps to stabilise the economy, and the efforts are beginning to yield results.

“But macroeconomic stability alone is not enough. The true measure of success will be how these reforms improve the daily lives of Nigerians — especially the poor and vulnerable,” Verghis said.

Others at the NDU event include Wale Edun, the minister of finance; Abdullahi Sule, governor of Nasarawa state; a representative of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN); and Ebele Enunwa, chief executive officer (CEO) of Sundry Markets Ltd.